Archive - Jul 21, 2011 - Story

UPDATE: CARNEY DENIES NYT REPORT: "THERE IS NO DEAL" 30 Year plunging

Just breaking news from the NYT for now. 30 Year surging.

Today, in addition to the official launch of Europe's PPT, we get a reminder that our own version, the Federal Reserve, is as criminal and corrupt as always, especially when working in conjunction with that old standby, Goldman Sachs. Just like back in 2009 and 2010 it was discovered that former Goldman director and New York Fed Chairman Stephen Friedman had bought tens of thousands of shares of Goldman stock while the entire system was being bailed out by the very same Fed, so today we learn that another former Goldmanite and then Plunge Protection Head team (i.e., Brian Sack predecessor) Bill Dudley had held shares of AIG stock while the Fed was arranging the bailout of the doomed insurer. But it's all good: Dudley had a waiver. Mostly likely signed by his then boss and former Goldman coworker Friedman. We wonder if it was Dudley who signed Friedman's waiver? From Bloomberg: "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s William C. Dudley got a waiver in 2008 to keep personal financial holdings of American International Group Inc. (AIG) after the company received a Fed rescue, a U.S. senator said. Dudley, who was the New York Fed’s markets-group chief at the time and is now the bank’s president, is the senior New York Fed official identified in a Government Accountability Office report today as receiving the waiver, Senator Bernard Sanders, a Vermont Independent, said today in a statement. Jack Gutt, a New York Fed spokesman, declined to comment." Of course, when one is from Goldman, one does not care about the glaring impropriety of one's actions. After all, one rules the world. And speaking of Bernie Sanders, he earlier tore the Fed a new one, after he released details of the Fed's GAO audit and took every opportunity to make his opinion on the master criminals well-known: "As a result of this audit, we now know that the Federal Reserve provided more than $16 trillion in total financial assistance to some of the largest financial institutions and corporations in the United States and throughout the world," he said. "This is a clear case of socialism for the rich and rugged, you're-on-your-own individualism for everyone else." Well, didn't everyone know that by now?

There is only one section of the proposed European Bailout draft statement that is relevant to traders: Section 7, bullet 3 which says: "To improve the effectiveness of the EFSF and address contagion, we agree to increase the flexibility of the EFSF, allowing it to intervene in the secondary markets on the basis of an ECB analysis recognizing the existence of exceptional circumstances and a unanimous decision of the EFSF Member States." Everything else is noise. Europe just legalized its own Plunge Protection Team and off balance sheet Quantitative Easing program with one signature. Good luck trading in this, or any, market which even the politicians now admit is nothing more than a central banking policy tool.

We know two things: 1) the official policy of the Federal Reserve is to engineer and maintain inflation and 2) inflation is theft. As I have recounted here many times, in nominal terms, it looks like average wages (earned income) in the U.S. have been rising smartly for decades. But measured in purchasing power, i.e. adjusted for inflation, earned income has declined for most workers, especially in the past three years. Whenever a pundit scoffs at the idea that the dollar might lose 95% of its value, readers remind me it already has lost 95% of its value in the past century. The Federal Reserve robs savers every day of millions of dollars, which it then transfers to the "too big to fail" banks by paying interest on those banks' reserves. Savers earn .01% on their cash while banks are paid 2% interest. The difference is what is stolen from savers and funneled to the banks.

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Courtesy of the IEA which earlier loudly announced 'No More SPR Releases' (although like the ECB earlier announced it would not accept defaulted Greek debt as collateral only to reneg, this is total bullshit), and another massive taxpayer funded iteration of EFSF monetization-infused moral hazard, crude is back to $100. Since the EFSF will very soon be expanded to over $1 trillion and since this is nothing less than Europe's version of QE, and paradrops money that just like the Fed's own daily POMOs will ultimately find its way into the market, as holders of toxic Greek debt shift their assets into risk holdings, we expect crude to surge to $110, then $120, then $130 and so forth until another global depression has to be called in. And, naturally, the same with every other hard asset that can not be diluted.

With increasing chatter that no matter what Congress agrees on, if anything, vis-a-vis the debt ceiling, the preemptive spin has begun, with the first salvo coming out of UBS' George Bory who has released a note "The difference between downgrade and default" which paints a very placid picture of the consequences of the US losing it AAA rating. Coming from a credit strategist, Bory naturally looks at the tightly confined consequences of such an event within the rates space exclusively without any mention of other cross-linked securities. In UBS' view, we would expect i) 10-yr yields rise 20-25bps, ii) a steeper yield curve, especially long end, iii) Treasuries underperform bunds and other highly rated sovereign debt iv) Vol term structure inverts further, v) Corporate spreads tighten, especially at long end, vi) Bank credit quality re-rated lower. Altogether not too bad. The problem is that there are a few trillion in money market related rating triggers which would grind to a halt the repurchase of paper of a sovereign that no longer has the AAA mark, resulting in our opinion in a dramatic crunch in short-term liquidity, and set the stage for a Lehman-like monetary system paralysis. But that is a topic for another day. Since today reality is to be ignored (see "transitory default"), here is why according to UBS America can simply call Moody's and S&P's bluff.

As more news comes across the tape, we now learn that somehow Greece is expected to experience a default but not just any default: a "transitory" default. From Bloomberg: European officials are trying to orchestrate a second Greek bailout so that a default would only last for a few days, said two officials familiar with the discussions.

After posting two consecutive negative prints, the most recent of which coming at -7.7, the July Philly Fed rose modestly to 3.2, just above consensus estimates of 2.0. Reading between the lines however confirms that there is nothing to write home about - from the report: "Responses to the Business Outlook Survey suggest that regional manufacturing activity remained weak in July. The survey’s indicators for activity and new orders, which had turned negative last month, recovered somewhat but are at very low positive readings. Firms indicated that employment grew modestly while the average workweek lessened. Indexes for prices show a continuing trend of moderating price pressures. The broadest indicator of future activity improved markedly this month, rebounding from its lowest reading in 31 months in June." Among the key components of the index, those relating to corporate margins, the prices paid declined by 1.7 even as prices received declined by 3.3, once again confirming that economic margin reality and corporate ZIRP driven surreality refuse to match. And while number of employees increased from 4.1 to 8.9 the Average Employee Workweek plunged from 1.9 to -5.4. Just hire many people and have them all work 1 hour a day: sounds like the unions building the 2nd avenue subway. Nt surprising, inventories rose from -8.5 to 1.4. The survey conclusion: "The survey’s indicators suggested flat demand for manufactured goods this month, while shipments and employment grew only slightly. Price measures suggested continued moderation in price pressures. The broadest indicators for future activity rebounded after falling sharply last month and firms are somewhat more optimistic about their hiring plans over the next six months."

Those so inclined can watch the Chairsatan and other regulators testify on financial oversight on year after Dodd-Frank enactment. Dep. Treasury Sec. Wolin, SEC Chair Schapiro, CFTC Chair Gensler, FDIC Acting Chair Gruenberg, Acting OCC Comptroller Walsh will also testify.

John Taylor, the "Fed Chairman who should have been", has penned a terrific op-ed in the WSJ. Advocating nothing short of a great reset, this is one of today's must read pieces: "If government interventions are the economic problem, then the solution is to unwind them. Some lament that with the high debt and bloated Fed balance sheet, we have run out of monetary and fiscal ammunition, but this may be a blessing in disguise. The way forward is not more spending, greater debt and continued zero-interest rates, but spending control and a return to free-market principles. Unfortunately, as the recent debate over the debt limit indicates, narrow political partisanship can get in the way of a solution. The historical evidence on what works and what doesn't is not partisan. The harmful interventionist policies of the 1970s were supported by Democrats and Republicans alike. So were the less interventionist polices in the 1980s and '90s. So was the recent interventionist revival, and so can be the restoration of less interventionist policy going forward. "

Citi, whose Steven Englander has been bearish on the EUR for a while, and with good reason although when faced with central planning, and Chinabot of course, it is tough to remain rational, sane, and certainly solvent, when the market can remain idiotic and socialist for far, far longer, has just released another note bashing the kneejerk reaction in the EUR. Bloomberg's terrific new All News service summarizes.

As news comes fast and furious out of Europe, here is Goldman's take on the so far unconfirmed details of the latest Marshall Plan in Europe, which unlike last time comes before the war. Incidentally, Europe just approved debt monetization, only unlike in the US, it will do it off balance sheet, via the EFSF "CDO" SPV. "EFSF empowered to buy in secondary markets with input from ECB; BETTER THAN EXPECTED, PENDING clarification on SIZE and ACCOUNTABILITY; EFSF able to recapitalize banks in non-program countries through loans to governments; BETTER THAN EXPECTED, ditto. IF ALL OF THIS IS CONFIRMED, VERY positive relative to expectations. Particularly the systemic stuff is a big step forward to unconditional mutual help. If sovereign cross-correlation of default is low, ex ante risk sharing helps everyone participating"

So far all the news out of Europe is based on changes to EFSF. Greece will be able to borrow for 15 years at 3.5%. French bonds with a 15 year maturity trade at 3.8%. So the EFSF will have to pay more on its debt than it receives? Interesting. Have the rating agencies signed up to rate the new EFSF as AAA? From deals I've worked on, things that always hurt ratings were i) extending maturity, ii) including banks in addition to sovereigns, iii) allowing trading, iv) vague rules as opposed to written rules. The headlines all indicate the new EFSF has all of these components. I am sure the agencies have been involved in these discussions, but I remain dubious how happy the market will be to finance the EFSF at rates that are remotely in line with the rates the EFSF plans to provide financing at. Lots more details likely to come out during the day, but watch for the details. The headlines sound great, but can they be executed. I also noticed somewhere that new lending would be collateralized. If that is true, has anyone asked the borrowers if that makes sense for them?

A rather sobering report out from S&P, which has no other function than to tighten the screws even more on those who prudently are holding out against extending the debt ceiling. As for S&P: please explain to US how 120% debt/GDP is better than 100% debt/GDP, and thus more worthy of a AAA rating? Please. Because we must be bloody stupid: "In our view, the need for an agreement to raise the debt ceiling before it is breached--which the government has said would occur on or around Aug. 2--remains a major risk to the U.S. economy, in our view. Because we see a real risk that efforts to reduce future deficits may meaningfully miss the targets that Congressional leaders and the White House have discussed, we put the likelihood that we would lower the long-term rating on the U.S. within the next three months and potentially as soon as early August--by one or more notches, into the 'AA' category--at about 50-50."