Archive - Jul 25, 2011 - Story

Measured by the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the Chinese stock market advanced 12% in 10 trading days in October 2010. While investors big and small are celebrating their returns in a market where shorting stock is not allowed, a bigger topic emerges: how did it happen? Increasingly, people point their fingers to the direction of Beijing.

For all those who believe China will continue carrying the world on its shoulders (we guess after yet another 2 week failed sting at US-based global growth "leadership", inverse decoupling is over yet again) we have some very bad news. None other than traditional permabull in all maters financial, Citi, has insinuated the sun may be setting on the great Chinese "growth case".

As Zero Hedge said back in January, when we predicted the transitory "bounce" or "temporary hard spot" in the economy, well ahead of everyone, the first thing that would need to happen for QE3 to be launched is for Goldman's Jan Hatzius to admit that his December 2010 call for an American golden age was a disaster, and to recognize that the economy is now contracting at a rate that will put last year's Q2 and Q3 GDP drops to shame. As of two weeks ago, that has happened. The only thing that was missing from our checklist was for Hatzius replacement, who enjoys the occasional Hefeweizen at the Pound and Pence with his former co-worker Bill Dudley, to make it clear what Goldman's position vis-a-vis QE3 is. Well, as of a few minutes ago we can cross that box too after Hatzius' lieutenant Sven Jari Stehn just said that "A sharp increase in the Fed's assessment of recession risk would most likely trigger significant additional monetary easing even if inflation remains well above their target." What has inspired this change in hear? Simple: nothing less than the "realistic–possibility of a significant further deterioration in the economic outlook." Oh well, the recovery was fun while it lasted. Same for the strong dollar. Next up: Jackson Hole in one month, where Bernanke will announce what the Dudley-Hatzius tag team has been whispering in his ear for the past month.

Following the two theatrical speeches eaelier, we are absolutely nowhere closer to a resolution now than we were 2 hours ago. Perhaps this is why the market is not too happy and as of minutes ago, the USDJPY tumbled to new all time lows (except for that illiquid print from March 17) of 77.89, with the market set to test Noda's repeated bluster that he will finally do something against the "one way Yen." We are not holding out breath. And to confirm that a perfect storm of sorts is on the horizon, adding to the increasing illiquidity in the US and Europe, is the news out of China that 7 day repo rates just surged by 160 bps overnight, the most since July 5, to 6.80%, as the market awaits the selling of CNY 1 billion in 1 year bonds at 10 am Chinese time. If $155 MM of a liquidity outflow can move the needle in China by almost 2%, then we are in deep trouble. Update: the BOJ may have just intervened. Just look at that chart. Update 2: perhaps not an intervention as we are now getting reports that Macau has been hit by a blast according to Xinhua

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We just heard two very useless speeches by two very useless Wall Street muppets. Both were, naturally, completely irrelevant. Now comes the important stuff, courtesy of a press release a few hours ago from the CME. Up until today, the collateral haircut on a T-Bill was 0.0%. Beginning Thursday it will be 0.5%. All other classes of Bonds, Notes and Strips will see their haircuts raised by 1% across the board. Same with Agency debt. Only foreign debt will see an increase of 2% in the Bill space, and 0.5% in Notes and Bonds. Translation: the CME just telegraphed what the rating agencies are terrified to do - keep up the charade, and the haircut will keep rising by 1% until it hits 100%. Give or take.

My fellow Americans... blah blah blah... stalemate.... blah blah blah... runaway spending... blah blah blah... all Bush's fault.... blah blah blah... compromise.... saving money from ending illegitimate wars.....blah blah blah... ceiling must be raised or America will be destroyed...blah blah blah... no more social security for anyone... blah....god bless you all...  is the camera off? Where are the Camel lights?

Earlier it was our turn to suffer a series of subdural hematomas courtesy of the $1 trillion in "savings" from wars yet unfought as per Harry Reid's plan "proposal." Now, it is Paul Ryan's turn.

The decline of the Roman Empire is captured by the simple concept of bread and circuses. Rather than focusing on the issues, the leaders tried to placate the masses.  The disdain in the simple phrase 'let them eat cake' so clearly brings to mind all the reasons for the French revolution. Rather than placating the masses, the aristocracy almost took pleasure in flaunting their wealth and privilege.  I am not convinced America has reached it's apex and is in decline, but more and more I believe that if we have peaked history will equate our decline with two simple words - "the market".

Today the IMF released its complete Article IV Consultation report, focusing on US economic development and policies. While there are 70 pages or so of textual fluff (it comes from the IMF after all), where the report excels is in presenting the complete picture of the "bipolar recovery" in the United States, in about 50 or so charts, which is a recovery for some and an outright recession if not depression for most. Furthermore, the report corroborates that when it comes to the economy, the US "recovery" has been one of two stories 7 quarters following the business cycle trough: a contraction in virtually all key non-business segments, including real GDP components, fixed investments, and the business sector, and a flourishing renaissance for the business sector and for financial firms, profits and financial conditions. In other words, from the very beginning the whole purpose of the orchestrated recovery was one and one only: not to improve the general economic situation, but to pander to corporations and to the wealthiest. It is no wonder that rumors of social disobedience and discontent are getting ever louder: by now even the most average American has understood that the administration has betrayed them. However, we do not want to delve in the ethics of it all. Others will do that. Instead, here are all the charts that tell the story of America's recovery. Or, more specifically, lack thereof as the case may be and is.

At last check Netflix' stock was down about 10% following an earnings report that was about as ugly as they get. While the company beat Q2EPS consensus of $1.12, coming with a number of $1.26, it missed revenue estimates of $790.5 MM at $789 MM. What's worse, it forecasted Q3 EPS of $0.72-$1.07, far below the $1.23 consensus, while it sees revenues of $780-$805 MM on consensus of $842 MM. And digging deeper, the rot was pervasive in virtually every line item. But don't worry: according to NFLX, it is now bearing the Pirate Bay scourge. Not. But at least Jim Cramer loves it.

The conference the market has been waiting for. We expect nothing concrete. We will get it.

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 25/07/11

"Mr. Venizelos I presume? The name is Jeethner. Tim Jeethner."

The only real solution to the Eurozone end-game is massive debt forgiveness and the resulting destruction of "too big to fail" banks, and a return to national currencies, which will enable structural imbalances to be resolved via currency devaluations. This will of course destabilize the German export economy; but that is inevitable. "Extend and pretend" is an endgame, not a fix.