Archive - Aug 1, 2011 - Story

While Washington is baffling everyone with male cow manure, presenting 7-slide powerpoints full of talking points and empty of actual actionable cost-cutting proposals, while draping the melodrama in ever more evanescent haute couture of "emperor's clothing" du jour, the one true solution to all our problems is so simple that it is perfectly logical that it would have been avoided like the plague by D.C. In a nutshell: do to the government, what the privates sector has done to itself in the past 3 years, and fire 15% of the federal government workforce. After all everyone, even the government, complains about the bloat in the system. Here is the chance to fix it. And the benefits, unlike the back-end loaded and extremely loose "bipartisan plan", which happens to invoke such pseudo-totalitarian constructs as the "Super Congress", can be quantified immediately, with the applicable savings made abundantly clear to all from day one. In this case - slimming the US government ever so modestly, by just 15%, would generate savings of $117.4 billion a year, of $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years. And no, these are not reductions in future spendings: these are real actionable cuts from the day they are enacted, with fungible cash able to be used for any other, much more needed purposes, up to and including economically stimulative projects, which actually generate jobs for the private sector.

The debt debate has been going on all summer, a 2 months and running theatrical experience of court jesters parading about while the United States economy teeters on the edge. On both sides of the aisle have been ridiculous solutions that are showing the world daily, America is willing to sacrifice its citizens for the profits of the corporations. The problem is, why will the rest of the world continue to support American multi-nationals, when they have their own. As dollar supremacy begins to wane, and oil prices rise as the dollar’s value descends, maybe it is time to talk about the horrendous policy decisions of these politicians in hopes it opens up a way to point us in the correct direction. Otherwise, when August 2nd comes and the deal is passed anyway, cause it has all just been a “watch this hand” moment, we might find ourselves not understanding why the Social Security check seems meager compared to before.

Not one but two letters today (link to prior here) from a very digusted Ron Paul, in which he once again dissects the complete farce that is the "spending" cut bill (if by spending one means slightly lowering the angle of attack on future government expenditures well over and above the revenue slope) and also adds his thoughts on the farce that is the "Super Congress."

And like that the Congressional circus is over 269 to 161. Market reaction? ES sells off 5, then rallies 3, and now is selling off again. Next up - the Senate but that is a given. So now that we know that America is not going to file for bankruptcy tomorrow on we go to the economic collapse.

It is of course the case that so deeply engrained are statistics such as these in the vocabulary of both the market and the voodoo of Maynardian macro-economics that it is unrealistic to expect any practitioner to avoid any reference to them whatsoever. What is absolutely crucial, however, is (a) constantly to bear in mind that these are nothing but examples of a convenient shorthand which often conceal as much as they reveal - in the same way a mean height above sea level or an average annual temperature tells us little about the topography or climate of a region, much less about how those features may be changing – and (b) that the generation of a positive change in the metric is not an end in itself (as far too many policy jockeys and talking heads seem to believe). An amphetamine junkie getting his next fix by spending the contents of the old woman’s purse he just snatched generates more instant GDP than an engineer sitting quietly at his desk, trying to puzzle out a radical new way to create more useful output with less input, but it should be fairly obvious which man is likely to do more to improve both his own material comforts and those of the people around him.

Three weeks ago Putin called Bernanke a hooligan. Since that remark came from the (allegedly) largest oil producing country in the world, it provoked nary a peep from America's foreign department. Today, he decided to ratchet up the rhetoric, and in a speech to a Kremlin youth group told his listeners what the bulk of the rest of the world thinks of America: ""They are living beyond their means and shifting a part of the weight of their problems to the world economy," Putin told a Kremlin youth group while touring its summer camp north of Moscow. "They are living like parasites off the global economy and their monopoly of the dollar."" Russia has not made its distrust of America clear in the past, and while others (ahem China) have been jawboning about selling Treasurys even as they continue buying US one-ply paper, Russia has been actively dumping its Treasury paper to the lowest in years. The reason for the unprovoked outburst? The insanity in Congress. "Thank god," Putin said, "that they had enough common sense and responsibility to make a balanced decision." The former KGBer's solution? Other, and more deserving, reserve currencies.

Two weeks ago we presented a chart that shows the uncanny correlation between the debt ceiling and the price of gold. Now that we know the final amount of the next debt ceiling hike, somewhere in the $2.5 trillion ballpark, it allows us to extrapolate where gold will end up as a result of the debt ceiling hike which will likely be voted into law at 7pm PDT. A simple correlation rule of thumb allows us to predict that gold will be at $1,950 by the end of the year if it simply retains it close correlation to the debt ceiling. Should Bernanke announce that he will additionally need to monetize some or all of this incremental debt amount, we anticipate that gold will be well over $2,000 by the end of the year, courtesy of yet another round of accelerated dollar debasement, which also means that real gains in US stocks will be negated courtesy of the devaluation of the currency in which they are priced. The same, however, does not apply for gold, which with every passing day is priced in nothing but itself.

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 01/08/11

With total Treasury cash dropping by $15 billion on Thursday, many were expecting a far uglier print as of the close of last week. Instead, total cash in the Federal Reserve Account staged a dramatic bounce on Friday, and is now back to $65 billion, following tax revenues offsetting contractual spending and another $13.7 billion coming in from the settlement of public debt issues. From here on out it is only downhill, and the cash is likely about $20 billion lower as of market close today (we will know for sure tomorrow). If the burn rate is smaller it means that Tim Geithner is dipping far more aggressively in Government retirement and Social Security trust funds than anyone could have imagined (Bruce Krasting discussed this previously). And yes, for those with a double digit IQ, the Treasury has less cash than Apple still.

Here it is...

Just a tweet from ABC's @rickklein for now. We expect Boehner to confirm this during his conference to begin shortly.

Tim Geithner has released his projection of expected borrowing needs for the final fiscal quarter of 2011 (ending on September 30). But before that, we learn that while back on May 1 the Treasury had expected to raise $142 billion in marketable debt in Q3, instead if raised $190 billion, with the difference going primarily to build up the EOQ cash balance which instead of being $95 billion, was $137 billion, obviously due to the threat of the debt ceiling breach. That threat however has not prevented the Treasury from assuming that the debt ceiling will be raised without a hitch, and it now predicts issuing $331 billion in net marketable debt issued in Q4, $74 billion less than the projection from May 1 (and further sees another $285 billion in borrowing needs in Q1 2012). In other words, if there is no debt ceiling deal, the Treasury will be $616 billion short in revenues over the next 6 months. Of course, the numbers net out the massive issuance that has to hit the market to fund the "disinvested" government retirement funds and various other mechanism that were used to prevent the Treasury from running out of cash, which amount to about $300 billion primarily in the form of short-term bills that matured and were not rolled over to make space for marketable debt issuance. In other words, gross issuance in the next quarter will be about over $660 billion. This is just a little under the total debt issued in the last 3 quarters (due to the May 16th debt ceiling breach)! And people think the Treasury can raise this money without the Fed monetizing at will? Fascinating.

Yes, the melodrama is back. Follow the latest developments straight out of Congress, which is now expected to be far closer to passing the bill as more republicans have voiced the support of the Compromise bill. This could be your last chance as today could well be the final day of the debt ceiling episode. At least for the current season.

Friday deja vu with not enough votes once again. Keep an eye on the The Hill's Whip Count (link) which summarizes what the mood of republicans and democrats is as we go into the vote. Unless Boehner can convince enough republicans to share his opinion, and we do get a failed vote, it would make the Tarp vote failure pale in comparison with what happens to the market...

It's not Jefferson County, yet, but it could certainly be seen as the precursor to the first domino. "The state-appointed receiver overseeing the cash-strapped Rhode Island town of Central Falls has filed for bankruptcy on the city's behalf in an effort to help it get back on its feet. Receiver Robert G. Flanders and Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee announced the step - which Flanders has described as a last resort - at a news conference at City Hall. Flanders filed the legal paperwork seeking bankruptcy protection Monday. "From the ashes of bankruptcy Central Falls will rise again," Flanders said." The biggest losers: unions. "With the city now seeking bankruptcy protection, Flanders said he plans to reduce pension benefits beginning in late August. He has asked the federal court to immediately reject collective bargaining agreements. He said the next set of pension payments will reflect at least the cuts he outlined to city retirees. In addition, he said city workers will face layoffs. Flanders called the step unavoidable, as taxes have already been raised and city services have been cut "to the bone." Expect Barack Obama to thaw Steve Rattner from carbonite explain to creditors, using a variety of four letter words, that they will be last in line of payment after every single union claim has been satisfied, with the resultant husk of a town reverse merged with GM.