Archive - Aug 16, 2011 - Story

Economic growth is faltering in all major economies with data this morning showing Eurozone and German GDP growth slowing. Eurozone GDP rose 0.2% from the first quarter, when it increased 0.8% while German GDP growth fell by more than expected in the second quarter, dropping to a derisory 0.1%. Double dip recessions involving inflation and therefore stagflation seem increasingly likely.The conditions today are far more bullish than in the 1970’s as in the 1970’s the U.S. was the largest creditor nation in the world whereas today the U.S. is the largest debtor nation the world has ever seen. Gold went parabolic in the 1970’s after a period of stagflation. Today, we appear to be on the verge of a period of stagflation. The 1970’s saw significant geopolitical risk with oil crisis, the overthrow of the Shah of Iran and the Russians invading Afghanistan. Today there is significant geopolitical risk in the world, arguably more, and there remains the real risk of a conflagration in the Middle East between Israel and its allies and Iran and its allies. Today we have a global debt crisis, massive systemic risk in the financial system threatening the solvency of many banks and sovereign governments. This was not the case in the 1970’s. This makes a parabolic move in gold very likely in the coming days, weeks and months. Increasingly, the question is not if we go parabolic rather it is when do we go parabolic – in the weeks and months or in the coming years.

Just when Europe managed to get away from the headline rotation for one whole day, it is back with a thud, reminding everyone that at the heart of it all is not a liquidity crisis but a solvency one, after both German and EU GDP surprisingly missed consensus. And what a surprise it was: while everyone was talking about stagflation in the US, the UK, even China, few if anyone dared to mention that word in the same sentence with Germany. That may change after Q2 GDP expanded by just 0.1% in Q2, on expectations of 0.5% growth and down from a downward revised 1.3% (from 1.5%) previously, (2.8% growth Y/Y vs exp of 3.2%). According to the stats office the weak result was primarily due to weaker net trade and consumption. Well if export-focused and mostly wealthy Germany can't generate enough growth through these two core sources of economic output, then nobody can. The immediate result of this datapoint was Commerzbank, and soon other, analysts lowering their GDP forecasts for 2011 to 3% from 3.4%. Germany is still expected to grow faster than the rest of the Eurozone but not by much any longer as this latest decoupling thesis starts to implode. And speaking of Eurozone GDP, it too surprised to the downside, printing at 0.2% on expectations of 0.3$ Q/Q, down from 0.8% previously (or up 1.7% Y/Y on expectations of 1/8%). The accelerating contraction of the European (and German) economy proves that just like in 2008, the ECB's series of rate hikes was the most misguided decision possible by the world's most clueless central bank, and anyone hoping for more rate hikes can kiss such dreams and aspirations goodbye.The net result: yesterday's entire no volume stock market levitation is about to be undone. Too bad the ECB can't buy some extra GDP for its insolvent (and solvent... for now) member countries.

A snapshot of the European Morning Briefing covering Stocks, Bonds, FX, etc.