Archive - Aug 2, 2011 - Story

Today we get Personal Income and Outlays, i.e., the savings rate, car sales (watch for GM dealer inventory), and the debt ceiling drama concludes in the Senate.

The last time we checked on the top 5 portfolio holdings of Mr. Pink's Third Point, we noticed that gold had surprisingly dropped to third position, behind Delphi and El Paso. Less surprising is that the fund, which has outperformed the S&P in July, returning 0.3%, and which increased in AUM by a whopping $800 million or well over 10%, has followed gold's surge to fresh all time highs, by once again making gold its top position. So in addition to the Bank of Korea, it appears that one of the key members of the hedge fund "think tank" is once again back and buying. If all of the $800 million in new capital went into gold, it tells you all you need to know about the ability to generate stock alpha in this market. Incidentally, how long before China, and its paltry gold reserves, finally gets the memo?

Further confirmation in the continuing stealth accumulation of bullion by central banks came overnight with confirmation that South Korea's central bank bought 25 tonnes of gold over the past two months. The gold is worth $1.24 billion and resulted in a 17 fold increase in their gold reserves. Thailand’s gold reserves rose by 15.5% in the two months and rose to about 4.07 million ounces in June, from about 3.523 million ounces in May, according to figures on the Bank of Thailand’s website accessed by Bloomberg this morning. South Korea is the world’s seventh-biggest foreign-exchange reserve holder and 64% of its reserves are in U.S. dollars. The bank said that it also holds euros and other assets and the move was about achieving diversification. The BOK’s reserves, stored in London in the vaults of the Bank of England, increased 25 tonnes to 39.4 tonnes (from 14.4 tonnes) but remain meager when compared to the size of their foreign exchange reserves. BOK's gold holdings, at today’s market prices, account for 0.7% of its reserves, up from 0.2% prior to the purchase. The BOK reserves were at a record high of $311.03 billion at the end of July which puts this $1.25 billion gold purchase in perspective. Their gold reserves and those of other Asian central banks, particularly the People’s Bank of China, remain meager when compared to those of western central banks and the U.S.

Despite Congress passing the debt ceiling hike, the market's reaction has been swift, brutal and vicious as ever more attention is being paid to Italy and the unforgiving European crisis. As both Spanish and Italian spreads hit new all time records, while CDS are at all time wides for the two countries plus France, the vigilantes are once again preparing to attack and test the ECB's resolve to keep the Euro alive: at this point it is obviously a losing game although expanding the EFSFS to $2 trillion is inevitable (at which point the reaction to German spreads will be swift). In the meantime the scramble for safety is at 2011 highs, with gold on the verge of another record, while the 10 Year US Treasury touching a low of 2.685%, and UK Gilts touching record lows: remember - this is all to make QE3 more palatable when it does begin. Lastly, Bloomberg's TJ Marta summarizes all the market indicators of a day in which sentiment has truly crumbled and in which we expect Italian bank stocks to be halted at least 3 times before market close.

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