Archive - Aug 30, 2011 - Story

There is the CPI... and then there is the MIT's billion price project which, as the name implies, tracks the prices of a billion products in real time. And according to the latter, annual inflation has hit a multi year high of about 4%. Perhaps someone can advise the talented Mr Evans that the 3% inflation he would so love to achieve... has in fact been eclipsed. At least, according to the real world. So take 4% inflation, add $2.5 trillion in "much more" easing, and what you get is only an economic Ph.D.'s guess. Alas, we are unqualified to have an opinion on the matter.

If you have ever wanted to "quantify" animal spirits, yet lacked the sheer imagination of how to goal seek an infinite array of numbers into a tidy little "ready for clients" package, despair not, for here is Citi, with the appropriately named "Quantifying Animal Spirits" in which Vikram's bank tries "to quantify this effect by looking and measuring periods when the market is focused on a small handful of broad (often macro-oriented) themes rather than “fundamental” analysis. Though not always apparent, these shifts in focus can have profound implications for alpha and risk." While the report is about as useful as parsing binary voodoo entrails through the magic punch card-based 8 ball of a Princeton economist, it sure does provide for some candid laughs at what passes for "analysis" at the bank which, while falling about as much as BofA (and which Paulson is still three quarters pregnant with) in recent weeks, has seen hardly a peep out of any media outlet: captured or otherwise.

Today we look at a graph of confidence in the US system. The US confidence ratio represents the ratio of outstanding US Federal debt to the dollar value of US gold holdings (as reported*). No corrections for inflation should be necessary, as both terms are valued in the same depreciating dollars. We use the term confidence as the ability of the US to stretch this ratio to (by our thinking) absurd multiples was a reflection of the world's confidence in the United States--which differs from the ability to actually repay debts. Confidence level sank throughout the Depression up until the beginning of WWII, after which ascendant American power was reflected in a climbing confidence ratio up to the oil crisis in the early 1970s. Confidence sank as the US withdrew from Viet Nam and inflation rose until the price of gold rose sufficiently to restore confidence in American solvency. From 1980 to 2001 was a golden age for the US. In this time, both stock and bond markets were strong, the US currency was strong, and the only credible opposition to US hegemony disintegrated. But every bubble meets its pin, and ever since the planes hit the towers, the US power and prestige has gone into decline. This decline is marked by a rapid decline in the confidence index. How low will it go? There is a provocative looking left shoulder and head, suggesting a drop to the neckline somewhere around 2020, after which there may be something of a resurgence in American confidence. The anticipated completion of the bankruptcy head-and-shoulders formation promises to be a hair-raising event.

Confirming that the Fed's doves, every single one of them, are genocidal sociopaths, we have a repeat appearance from Chicago's Chuckie Evans, who first sent stocks barreling in the latest algo driven, no volume meltup, earlier, this time dodecatupling down, by telling Fed lackey Jon Hilsenrath that "we need to do much more to increase the level of accomodation"... much more as in the ~$2.5 trillion of debt that needs to be monetized in the period before Obama's desperate reelection campaign. And by "we", he means the group of 12+1 madmen bundled up in a room in the Marriner Eccles building with or without padded walls, who unlike a simple unfunded blog, believed that Q4 GDP in the US would be about 4% instead of the negative print it is about to be in a few short months. Yes sure: lets give the sociopaths-cum-Econ Ph.D's another run at destroying the world: just because the Arab Spring was not enough to demonstrate just how efficient the Fed is at toppling regimes, this time around they will make sure that the revolutionary wave sweeps across Asia, through Europe, and ends on the banks of the Potomac. Of course, if in the process it also brings with it the much desired hyperinflation that will make the US banking sector whole, who cares if a few million people die - at least Wall Street, which has long since converted its fiat wealth into gold and other real money, will be spared, go on a 5 year vacation to non-extradition Libya, then come back when the shotguns have rusted, and the pitchforks have been dulled, and pick up where they left off. Because as we all know, nobody is more "intuitive" than an Econ. Ph.D, and nobody can create greater financial innovation, aka the primary export of the US, the than someone from New York's Financial District.

A lot of people—children of the ’70’s, I suppose—claim that judgment is a bad thing: “Don’t judge! You have no right to judge!” is their mantra. They insist that we as a society have no right to judge how they live, or more importantly what they do.  A lot of other people have taken up the same slogan, and adopted it as their own: People like Dick Cheney—like Monsanto and DuPont and BP, who poison us with impunity—like the oil and gas companies carrying out “fracking”, which is causing earthquakes and flammable water on the East Coast—like the TBTF banks and the prop desks front-running their clients, or illegally foreclosing on homeowners—in short, people near the top of our social pyramid.  They have adopted the non-judgmental slogans: “Don’t judge! You have no right to judge! It’s not illegal! We’re not breaking the law! So don’t judge! Don’t judge!” they yell and scream as loud as they can. They seem so convincing, these slogans: It’s tempting to do what they ask—to not judge. Because judgment is hard. It’s far easier to passively accept a situation—to not pass judgment—to simply let it be—than to stand up, make a judgment, and then say it out loud.

We can blame politicians a little bit, but the bulk of the blame lies with the American people. That was kind of an epiphany for me. During the 1980s, I would occasionally have lunch with Senator Jesse Helms from North Carolina. He knew that I was highly critical of agricultural subsidies, handouts to farmers. Something Jesse Helms told me at one of our luncheons made me realize some things I had not realized until then. He said, “Walter, I agree with you 100% that these farm subsidies ought to be eliminated.” But then he asked, “Can you tell me how I can remain the senator from North Carolina and vote against them? If I do what you say, I would be voted out of office.” Applying his observation today, we can note that the biggest expenditures by the federal government are Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and prescription drugs. Along with other entitlements, these expenditures amount to almost 60% of the federal budget. The beneficiaries of these programs vote in large numbers. Politicians who talk about cutting these programs are going to run into trouble. We have to get the American people, as much as politicians, to respect the Constitution.

The FHFA filing an objection to the Bank of America settlement? Forget about it. After all should BAC implode upon having to fund another $50 billion in mortgage putback claims, and Countrywide have to be spun off and nationalized, it would simply mean that more capital would flow away from the already insolvent GSEs and to a totally new branch of taxpayer funded RMBS. Which is why are confident that the latest objection filed against the BAC settelement is merely there to weaken the case, or as Manal Mehta puts it: a Cover Your Ass filing because "they’ve pre-determined the conclusion and then will do the bare minimum discovery until they can jump ship and undermine the efforts of the rest of the objectors." Why else would anyone file a "conditional objection" whose sole purposes is " to reserve its capability to voice a substantive objection in the unlikely event that necessity should arise." Unlikely? Obviously this is Bank of America's higher power interest already doing all they can to prevent an out of control situtation getting even worse. Which after all is the whole point of why the Fed, Pimco, BlackRock et all filed the lawsuit in the first place: to ring-fence the total amount of cash outflow claims, instead of allowing Bank of America to experience death by a thousand lawsuits. In this regard, tonight's FHFA filing is nothing more than a wolf in plaintiff's clothing doing what they can to weaken the case against undoing the settlement.

China’s voracious appetite for energy from anywhere has led most oil-producing nations to attempt to feed the dragon, including Russia. But a curious situation has developed as regards Russian oil exports to the Celestial Kingdom, underlining that the two nations, which fought for global supremacy over the Communist movement for four decades, remain at best, “frenemies.” According to Chinese customs reports, last month oil imports from Russia fell by nearly half. Not so, Rosneft says, stating that deliveries are proceeding through the Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline at their normal levels. Russia is now China’s ninth largest source of oil imports, with Saudi Arabia first, Iran second and Angola third. In trying to read the tea leaves in the contradictory statements emanating from Beijing and Rosneft, Russian analysts believe that China is sending Moscow a not so subtle signal that it can do without Russian imports.

For now it was just Jan Hatzius calling for QE3 now if not sooner. With the addition of JPM to the list of banks now implicitly expecting (read demanding) QE3, it is now quite clear how Wall Street feels - after all someone has to pay those Wall Street bonuses - it sure won't come from M&A activity, underwriting of Chinese IPO frauds, or trading volume. Here is the key sentence from a just released note by JPM's Michael Feroli: "We believe the minutes lend themselves to our view that there is a somewhat better-than-even chance the Fed takes action at the next meeting to increase the average maturity of assets on their balance sheet." Keep an eye on the market tomorrow for confirmation: a third day of the same low volume meltup we have seen this week should make the open QE3 question into case closed.

RANsquawk Market Wrap Up - Stocks, Bonds, FX etc. – 30/08/11

Yesterday we said that the "2010 Post-Jackson Hole No Volume Levitation Has Begun." Sure enough Day 2 is in the books. And anyone who recalls those fun days of deranged volatility from a week ago, when the DJIA moved +/- 400 points in a day, you can kiss those goodbye. The new no volume levitation regime is the same as the old no volume levitation regime, experienced so well between August 2010 and March 2011. The market will proceed to price in central planning in its most recent iteration of QE3 day, after day, after day, until September 21, and if nothing is announced then, until November 2, and then December 13, and so on, because the levered beta pursuit, aka "career risk" trade is now back on. It also means that the Fed will soon have to resume monetizing the $2.4 trillion in debt, well above the total excess reserves held by banks currently, that will be issued over the next year (did our good readers forget about all that debt that needs to find a buyer?). And while stocks are picking up the now standard 10 ES points per day, gold will one day very soon declare its independence from this centrally planned bullshit and just take off on its way to a self-imposed gold standard, which also means first 4, then 5, then increasingly more zeroes when expressing its price in reserve bank toiler paper terms. Incidentally, just like last year "nobody" could see QE2 happening, it may be time to put some money in Paulson & Co. which has been all but left for dead - somehow he always pulls out the centrally assisted hail mary in the last minute.

That the European ponzi is leaps and bounds ahead of the US is well known: we have frequently succumbed to vertigo trying to chart just how interconnected Europe's financial system is at the current point where €1 in incremental capital is supposed to prop up a multi-trillion pyramid scheme. But the just released news from the Handeslblatt demonstrates that just when we thought we had seen it all, Europe once again manages to surprise us. As is by now well-known, Finland has proven to be quite a stick in the spokes of the joint-European can kicking exercise by, prudently, demanding collateral, or threatening to walk out of the second Greek bailout (that 1 year Greek bonds are trading at 60%+ yields is irrelevant). Well, here's the solution - give them collateral... in the form of insolvent Greek bank shares, which however will be "partially nationalized" as if that will suddenly push their value higher. Supposedly the Finns never clarified that the collateral has to have some liquidation "value."  Oh well, better luck next time.

Below is the top-50 word cloud of the FOMC statement. Several key words and the number of appearances: Unemployment: 15; Volatility: 3; Italy: 1; Japan:3; 2011: 6; 2012: 3; 2013: 1; Transitory: 2 (4 in the June minutes); Debt: 19; Inflation: 29; Deflation: 1; Trillion: 1; Quadrillion: 0; Gold: 0; and... waxing: 1.

We came this close to QE3:

• Some participants noted that additional asset purchases could be used to provide more accommodation by lowering longer-term interest rates.
• Others suggested that increasing the average maturity of the System’s portfolio—perhaps by selling securities with relatively short remaining maturities and purchasing securities with relatively long remaining maturities—could have a similar effect onlonger-term interest rates.
• A few participants noted that a reduction in the interest rate paid on excess reserve balances could also be helpful in easingfinancial conditions.
• A few members felt that recent economic developments justified a more substantial move at this meeting, but they were willing to accept the stronger forward guidance as a step in the direction of additional accommodation. Three members dissented because they preferred to retain the forward guidance language employed in the June statement.

Earlier today, German financial regulator Bafin roundly smacked down Christine Lagarde's Jackson Hole proposal to use the EFSF as a bank recapitalization vehicle (as we noted over the weekend, it already has its hands full with merely keeping Italy afloat). Now it is France's turn to be indignant:

• BANK OF FRANCE'S NOYER SAYS DOES NOT UNDERSTAND IMF LAGARDE'S RECENT CALL FOR EU BANK RECAPITALISATIONS
• BANK OF FRANCE'S NOYER SAYS MAYBE LAGARDE WAS BADLY INFORMED BY IMF STAFF ON BANK RECAPITALISATIONS
• BANK OF FRANCE'S NOYER SAYS SEES NO REASON TO WORRY ABOUT FRENCH BANKS
• BANK OF FRANCE'S NOYER SAYS SPECULATION ABOUT POSSIBLE FRENCH DEBT DOWNGRADE IS AN "ABSURD RUMOUR"
• BANK OF FRANCE'S NOYER SAYS CONSTITUTIONAL DEFICIT LIMIT WOULD BE COMMON SENSE