Archive - Aug 2011 - Story

Like clockwork, the Wall Street reactionaries confirm that when it comes to predicting the future, and/or actually having a proactive stance, one better look elsewhere.  In responde to last week's 10% correction, first Goldman's economics team downgrades the economy and floats its demands for the SS QE3, next its FX teams downgrades the USD, and finally Joseph Cohen replacement David Kostin cuts his price target on the S&P. To wit: "We reduce our year-end 2011 price target to 1400 from 1450 and our 2012 EPS estimate to $102 from $104, due to lower global GDP growth estimates. Our 2011 EPS estimate remains unchanged at $96. S&P 500 trades 12% below its April peak and has experienced its 15th correction of at least 10% since 1975 reducing the forward P/E to 12.0X our top-down EPS estimates and 11.3X consensus bottom-up estimates. Current valuation is consistent with support levels in October 2008, July 2010 and our uncertainty-based P/E fair value, suggesting further risk is more likely reliant on negative earnings revisions than further multiple contraction." We can only hope that at least someone knows what Wall Street's sell side is paid millions of dollars for. Alas, it is not us.

Remember when we said (yesterday) that Germany will soon balk over the fact that it is pledging its entire economy to bail out an insolvent Europe? Well, that moment has come.

• German Govt: Italy Too Big For EFSF To Save - Spiegel
• German Govt: Doubts Whether Tripling EFSF Would Help It Save Italy
• German Govt: Italy Must Make Savings, Reforms To Exit Crisis - Spiegel
• Italy Debt Guarantee Could Raise Doubts Over Germany's Finances - Spiegel
• German Govt: EFSF Should Only Help Small, Mid-Size Countries - Spiegel

Those seeking a harbinger of what may be in store for global capital markets come Sunday 5 pm should look to Saudi Arabia where the Tadawul just dropped by over 5% today.

Time for deeply introspective Op-Eds galore. Not too surprisingly, the first one comes from blogging powerhouse Pimco, and its chief literary superstar, Mo El-Erian, titled "U.S. Downgrade Heralds a New Financial Era." While Mohamed's outlook is mostly politically correct fluff, he does bring up the absolutely spot on point that FrAAAnce is about to become FrAAnce, which also means that Germany's worst nightmare: that of backstopping the EFSF entirely on its own, is about to become reality.

China has released a scathing op-ed in Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency, in which the authors waste no time to humiliate a "debt-ridden Uncle Sam" following the S&P downgrade, in the most violent surge in the recent war of words between the ascendent and descendent superpowers. Some choice selections: "Dagong Global, a fledgling Chinese rating agency, degraded the U.S. treasury bonds late last year, yet its move was met then with a sense of arrogance and cynicism from some Western commentators. Now S&P has proved what its Chinese counterpart has done is nothing but telling the global investors the ugly truth", "China, the largest creditor of the world's sole superpower, has every right now to demand the United States to address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China's dollar assets." It doesnt stop there, "[the US] should also stop its old practice of letting its domestic electoral politics take the global economy hostage and rely on the deep pockets of major surplus countries to make up for its perennial deficits." China takes the opportunity to give the US a little lecture on a broken way of life: "All Americans, both beltway politicians and those on Main Street, have to do some serious soul-searching to bring their country back from a potential financial abyss." And lastly, China once again gets back to its pissing contest about whose reserve currency is bigger: "International supervision over the issue of U.S. dollars should be introduced and a new, stable and secured global reserve currency may also be an option to avert a catastrophe caused by any single country." Just wild fun. Read the whole thing below.

The same day Jan Hatzius downgrades the US economy, and David Kostin cut his S&P target (more on that in a second), the US was downgraded. So, to keep it all in perspective, here is Goldman's explanation of what the downgrade means, and why ignoring the rabid elephant in the room is probably a good idea. "BOTTOM LINE:  Standard and Poor’s has downgraded the US sovereign rating to AA+, and kept the rating outlook at negative, suggesting improvement in the fiscal situation will be needed to avoid further downgrades.  Federal agencies have issued guidance clarifying that this action will not affect risk weightings for US Treasury or agency debt."

Presenting the joint statement by The Fed, the FDIC, NCUA, OCC. In essence: the Fed tells S&P to go fornicate itself. And for your corresponding pleasure, below are the media contact of note: Federal Reserve Susan Stawick (202) 452-2955;  FDIC David Barr (202) 898-6992; NCUA David Small (703) 518-6336; OCC Bryan Hubbard (202) 874-5307

Peter Barnes “Is there a risk that the United States could lose its AAA credit rating? Yes or no?”

Geithner’s response: “No risk of that.”

“No risk?” Barnes asked.

“No risk,” Geithner said.

Well, so much for the conspiracies. S&P has just released a scathing critique of the total chaos that this country's government has become. "The political brinksmanship of recent months highlights what we see as America's governance and policymaking becoming less stable, less effective,  and less predictable than what we previously believed. The statutory debt ceiling and the threat of default have become political bargaining chips in the debate over fiscal policy. Despite this year's wide-ranging debate, in our view, the differences between political parties have proven to be extraordinarily difficult to bridge, and, as we see it, the resulting agreement fell well short of the comprehensive fiscal consolidation program that some proponents had envisaged until quite recently. Republicans and Democrats have only been able to agree to relatively modest savings on discretionary spending while delegating to the Select Committee decisions on more comprehensive measures. It appears that for now, new revenues have dropped down on the menu of policy options. In addition, the plan envisions only minor policy changes on Medicare and little change in other entitlements, the containment of which we and most other independent observers regard as key to long-term fiscal sustainability." What to expect on Monday: " it is possible that interest rates could rise if investors re-price relative risks. As a result, our alternate scenario factors in a 50 basis point (bp)-75 bp rise in 10-year bond yields relative to the base and upside cases from 2013 onwards. In this scenario, we project the net public debt burden would rise from 74% of GDP in 2011 to 90% in 2015 and to 101% by 2021." And why all those who have said the downgrade will have no impact on markets will be tested as soon as Monday: "On Monday, we will issue separate releases concerning affected ratings in the funds, government-related entities, financial institutions, insurance, public finance, and structured finance sectors." Translation: unpredictable consequences: you are welcome!

McGraw-Hill: meet Chicago-style negotiations. And there, in one sentence, is all that is broken with this country. The reason for the beyond ridiculous horse trade, according to CNN: S&P analysis of U.S. revenue, deficit picture was questioned. Presumably S&P ignored to add the $10 quintillion dollars that were saved by America not declaring war on Tatooine and its most infamous Hutt resident: Larry Summers. Indeed, again according to CNN, S&P acknowledged some errors in its analysis. Isn't it amazing what being threatened with having your NRSRO license can do for motivation to double check your work, eh you pathetic sellouts? Who would have thought that last week's farce debt ceiling would continue and develop into a national pastime. Below, for the sake of S&P's non-existent conscience and incompetence, are their own guidelines for what constitutes an AAA-rated credit. Readers can decide if the US is one. In other news, in USSAAA, government downgrade rating agency.

With a last-minute debt deal reached, I’m reminded of two holy words in Washington: “compromise” and “bipartisanship.” It’s amazing that the political elite have so twisted the English language as to lend virtue to these terms. In Washington, these words hold intrinsic value… similar to how “truth” and “honesty” do outside D.C. Unfortunately for the American public, Washington compromises have been and will continue to be the death knell of the U.S. economy – and particularly the free market.

Think you were the only one who could not get within 100 feet of any liquidity in today's market which bounced up and down by 5 points on any chatic whim? Think again. The day after the market saw 844 stocks trigger short-sale restrictions (meaning they dropped more than 10% in one day), not even the robots were able to pull a rabbit out of a hat and at least 21 stocks ended up flash crashing for a millisecond or much longer during today's trading session. Below are the charts of the 21 identified victims of overzealous ask-side algos, as usual courtesy of Nanex.

Your one stop summary of all the bullish and bearish events of the past week.

Eric Sprott, Chairman of Sprott Asset Management, and James Turk, Director of the GoldMoney Foundation, talk about how there isn't enough silver in the silver market to back existing "paper silver" commitments. While there is much in the attached interview, the bottom line is that Sprott thinks that "silver will be the investment of this decade". And with 3 out of 5 central banks having just embarked on monetization, and two more imminents, he will almost certainly be right.

Juvenal makes reference to the Roman practice of providing free wheat to Roman citizens as well as costly circus games and other forms of entertainment as a means of gaining political power through populism. Roman politicians devised a plan in 140 B.C. to win the votes of the poor: giving out cheap food and entertainment, “bread and circuses”. The Roman politicians realized this would be the most effective way to rise to power and stay in power. With the revolting display of political theater in the last few weeks, I couldn’t help but consider the parallels between the Roman Empire and the American Empire. The entire debt ceiling farce was a circus on an epic scale – The Greatest Show on Earth. The American public was treated to high wire acts of near debt experiences, Senators putting their heads into the mouths of lions, and hundreds of clowns riding tiny bikes with squeaking horns. In the end, American politicians did what they do best - pretended to solve a spending problem without cutting spending. Only in America could politicians put the country on course to increase its national debt from $14.5 trillion to $23 trillion by 2021 and declare they are cutting spending. For those that need to visualize the lies of politicians, take a gander at this chart and try to find the cuts in spending.