Archive - Oct 10, 2012 - Story

And so another urban legend falls, this time of the retail "doorbuster" ploy known as "Black Friday", whose only goal is to get as many gullible US shoppers into retail stores with promises of massive discounts and unbeatable bargains. As it turns out the promises are completely hollow, in based on an analysis by the WSJ, those highly touted Black Friday deals aren't deals at all, and in fact the bulk of the "discounts" are smaller compared to comparable price cuts throughout the year. In fact, the only thing that is true about the day that launches Holiday shopping, is that it is a great demonstration of the herd effect in play, where people line up in droves just because other people line up in droves. In the meantime, everyone else has already managed to snag that much desired purchase long ago and at a lower price. Of course, if this key day that anchors the start of the profitable retail shopping season is relegated to the dustbin of urban legendry, then retailers' already negligible margins will be cut even further, leading to severe adverse economic consequences for a country whose economy is 70% based on consumption, and which is already on the edge as said consumer is largely tapped out and whose credit cards have been maxed out long ago.

• U.S. Military Is Sent to Jordan to Help With Crisis in Syria (NYT)
• IMF Weighing New Loans for Europe (WSJ)
• Romney Targets Obama Voters (WSJ)
• China’s Central Banker Won’t Attend IMF Meeting Amid Island Spat (Bloomberg)
• Japan Calls China PBOC Chief Skipping IMF Meeting ‘Regrettable’ (Bloomberg)
• German media bristles at hostile Greek reception for Merkel (Reuters)
• The End Might Be Near for Opel (Spiegel)
• IMF sounds alarm on Japanese banks (FT)
• Cash Tap Stays Dry for EU Banks (WSJ)
• Goldman in Push On Volcker Limits (WSJ)
• IMF Vinals: Further Policy Efforts Needed to Gain Lasting Stability (WSJ)
• King signals inflation not primary focus (FT)

The overnight session has been largely listless, with the market digesting a less than impressive start to earnings season by Alcoa, which reported declining cash flows, and various other negative earnings preannouncements out of major industrial companies. The IMF has not helped the somber mood with its analysis that by the end of 2013 European banks will need to dispose of up to $4.5 trillion in assets. Asian weakness (even the SHCOMP couldn't rally much on further easing rumors for the simple reason that the PBOC will simply not ease with QEternity out there and a food price hike over the horizon) has dominated the trading session so far. What little goods news there was came out ironically out of Italy and France, both of which reported better than expected August Industrial Production data. Italy IP rose 1.7% on expectations of a -0.5% drop, and up from -0.2% last, while the French Industrial Production posted a surprising surge, following weeks of poor data out of the country, with IP up 1.5% on expectations of a -0.3% print, and up from last month's 0.6%. However, even France warned not to read too much into a number driven by, well, cars and drinks.