Archive - Oct 17, 2012 - Story

Whereas yesterday we learned that Chinese September electricity consumption had dropped to a multi-year low of 2.9% Y/Y (ignoring the Chinese New year data aberration of -7.5% from January which should be a blended reading with the February surge of +22.9%), down from 3.6% in August, and the lowest since August 2010, today in turn we find that the flip side to the this number, electricity production, was an even bleaker +1.5%, and the lowest in three months. And while it has been rumored that China has an incentive to manipulate the former down, this has been offset by manipulating the latter - output - up. Which is why whereas the consumption data implies a modestly weaker GDP, which declined and missed the official target (if ended precisely as the goalseek-o-tron expected), it is the electricity production data that is the outlier, and which indicates that in reality the GDP is now trendlining well below the official 7%.

We are now entirely used to the daily mini-flashes in US equities as algos lose their stabilizer and run one way or another. Recently we noted the same algos-gone-wild had hit the India stock exchange. Tonight, the HFT-bug has moved to Australia, where the open - which just happens to be option expiration - saws a number of major equities (including several of the banks - e.g. ANZ and CBA) get smashed instantaneously higher (by 5-7%) at the open - only to plummet back to normalcy soon after. The cuplrit - it would appear to us - is a market-clearing wipe-out of all resting stops above the multi-year highs that the stocks were at the edge of. Regulatoirs are 'investigating' though their first comment was "it is certainly nothing to do with the trading system." As the Sydney Morning Herald notes a market participant: "Either that or an algorithm has gone haywire, a mistake has been made, or these trades are deliberate.' Either way, do we have an orderly market?"

Chinese economic data has in general been surprising to the downside in recent weeks - in opposition to the positive (seasonally adjusted awesomeness) of US data. However, for tonight's entertainment we have GDP at 7.4% YoY - perfectly in line with expectations (but the 7th consecutive quarter of slowing growth), Industrial Production beat modestly, Retail Sales beat handsomely (biggest beat in 18 months), and FAI beat...

• *CHINA 3Q GDP RISES 7.4% VS ECONOMISTS' EST. 7.4%       :NBSZ CH
• *CHINA SEPT. INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 9.2% VS 9% ECONOMISTS' EST.
• *CHINA JAN.-SEPT. FIXED-ASSET INVESTMENT UP 20.5% VS EST. 20.2%
• *CHINA SEPT. RETAIL SALES RISE 14.2% FROM YEAR EARLIER

So, no new stimulus coming anytime soon - leaving Bernanke and Draghi all alone (and the latter is stuck waiting for Rajoy to say 'Si'). AUD lurched violently up and down; US equity futures are unmoved; and Treasury yields rose perhaps 1bps.

Physical strength, endurance, flexibility, adaptability, and mental discipline are all attributes of a true survivor.  Unfortunately, they are also attributes that are often neglected by the average survivalist.  The popular assumption is that if you have sizable food storage and can shoot straight, you are ready to rock-and-roll.  Reality has some harsh lessons for those with this mindset.  The first and most important weapon in any prepper’s arsenal is his own body; strong, healthy, and well taken care of.  If a person’s body is left to decay, no amount of gear is going to save them in the middle of a crisis situation...

Xiao Gang, Chairman of the Bank of China, took on the issue of “shadow banking,” recently in an op-ed. Chinese finance is undergoing dramatic changes which are not yet widely understood. Historically (mainly before 2008), the vast majority of lending in China was done by the normal banking sector in the form of loans.  The process was a cornerstone of the government’s control over the economy.  The vast majority of banks in China are controlled by the government, so the “who and when” of lending was firmly in the hands of China’s leaders. But, the years 2008/9 will be remembered as watershed years for Chinese finance, as two trends appeared – an economy relying increasingly on debt creation for growth, and that debt creation becoming more and more complicated and obscure - making it is easy to see why so many officials and analysts are worried about the 'hazy and complicated area of finance' out of teh government's direct control.

The primary, if not only, reason there has been a brief spike in subsidized demand for housing in recent months, has been the GSE/FHFA endorsed REO-To-Rental plan, and associated securitization conduits, in which large asset managers have been encouraged to take advantage of government funded, risk-free financing (and entirely bypassing banks who have given up on loan origination due to legacy liability issues which have every bank tied up in litigation from now until Feddom come - just see today's Bank of America results) and purchase foreclosed properties in bulk, with the intention of converting them into rental properties. Needless to say, the subsidization of this wholesale purchasing of foreclosures, coupled with the ongoing "foreclosure stuffing" pursued by the big banks (as a reminder days to foreclose in New York just hit a record 1,072 per RealtyTrac as banks simply refuse to clear housing inventory faster knowing full well withheld inventory is an additional clearing price subsidy) is the main reason why the punditry has been confused into believing there is a housing rebound. That this "rebound" is merely a subsidized demand pull phenomenon a la the "cash for clunkers" auto sales program is patently clear to most. Nonetheless what little confusion is left, is finally coming to an end, thanks to none other than one of the first entrants in the REO-To-Rental space, $31 billion hedge fund Och Ziff, which a year after entering the program with hopes of quick riches, is now looking to cash out.

This morning's New Home Starts and Building Permits was called by some 'The Most Bullish Development On The Entire Earth'. That is indeed a very bullish statement about a sector of the economy that is still running at very recessionary levels of activity. However, let's analyze the data beyond the headline to determine what is really occurring. Among the various 'surprises' are seasonal adjustments, as we saw with the retail sales, were exceptionally large in September; the underlying fundamentals, especially in the 25-35 cohorts, are simply not in place to create a sustainable upturn in housing; and the disconnect between the housing data and the real demand for construction workers. The current activity falls well within the bounds of normal volatility, and we will likely see revisions lower in the coming months ahead, as seasonal variations began to negatively impact the data towards year end. The important point, however, is that while the housing data on the surface is showing improvement the more important components to sustainability from employment to lending are not.

While patriotically buying US equities, or Intrade contracts, is 'believed' to reflexively improve the odds of the incumbent reaching a second term, the correlation between Obama's lead over Romney and stocks is actually not that high. The most highly correlated 'vehicle' for 'impacting' the odds of an Obama victory is, according to empirical data, the CRB Index.

While it is easier to listen to the narrative from world leaders and feel numb to the reality of it all, The Economist has decided enough is enough. Just as we earlier explained in simple bullet points the reality of the last few years in Europe (here), so The Economist provides this handy 'be your own global macro strategist' tool to comprehend just what magic the markets believe will occur going forward to keep debt levels under control across the world's governments... (e.g. all things equal, the country would need to grow by 7.7% a year, or nominal bond yields to fall to a Teutonic 0.5% to stabilize government gross debt at its 2011 level of 70% of GDP).

Quazi Mohammad Rezwanul Ahsan Nafis (Nafis), 21, was arrested this morning in downtown Manhattan after he allegedly attempted to detonate what he believed to be a 1,000-pound bomb at the New York Federal Reserve Bank on Liberty Street in lower Manhattan’s financial district. The defendant faces charges of attempting to use a weapon of mass destruction and attempting to provide material support to al Qaeda. The arrest of Nafis was the culmination of an undercover operation during which he was closely monitored by the FBI New York Field Office’s Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF). The explosives that he allegedly sought and attempted to use had been rendered inoperable by law enforcement and posed no threat to the public. The charges were announced by Loretta E. Lynch, United States Attorney for the Eastern District of New York; Lisa Monaco, Assistant Attorney General for National Security; Mary E. Galligan, Acting Assistant Director in Charge, Federal Bureau of Investigation, New York Field Office (FBI); and Raymond W. Kelly, Commissioner, New York City Police Department (NYPD).

IBM weighed on the Dow - much to the chagrin of the mainstream media - but if they'd replaced IBM with AAPL things would have been just as ugly (if not worse). The tech-darling dumped after trying to ramp in the last hour and once again failing at VWAP on heavy volume as the big boys exited. S&P futures auctioned up to QEtc. spike levels and were unable to get through but still had a solid day. Interestingly, while today was an 'uncorrelated' day across risk assets, the rise in Treasury yields, rise in stocks, drop in Gold, and drop in USD has brought them all back together in sync post-QEtc. - from here who knows? Credit markets tracked equities generally - but HYG and LQD saw major volume spikes early on this morning (looked like HYG sells and LQD buys). VIX limped sideways most of the day - falling 0.14vols to 15.08% (though for the year remains on average at a high premium to realized). The USD is down 0.85% for the week with EUR back above 1.31 and only JPY weaker vs USD among the majors.

Update: we now have the suspect's name: Quazi Mohammad Rezwanul Ahsan Nafis, who in addition to Plan A had Plan B: "If Nafis felt his attack was about to be thwarted by cops, he would invoke the back-up plan, which involved a suicide bombing operation"

NBC 4 New York has learned that federal authorities have arrested a man they say was plotting to attack the Federal Reserve in New York City. The man is in custody in New York. Sources tell NBC 4 New York that he lives on Long Island. Law enforcement officials stress that the plot was a sting operation monitored by the FBI and NYPD and the public was never at risk. "According to the report, the suspect drove a van he believed to be loaded with explosives from Long Island to Lower Manhattan. He then placed the van near the Federal Reserve and was then arrested by the FBI and NYPD. The suspect, whom sources said is from the Jamaica Queens section of New York City, is currently in custody in New York. Sources say he was acting alone." And "New York terror suspect is a 21-year-old Bangladeshi citizen who traveled to the U.S. in January to carry out terror attack." At least all that tungsten gold lying on the Manhattan bedrock is safe and sound and John McClane will not be called out of retirement just yet.

Ten days ago, when we last tracked the progress of the third US aircraft carrier, CVN-74 Stennis, with destination Arabian Gulf, aka Iran, we reported that it was "within a week of reaching" its destination. Sure enough, as the latest Stratfor naval update confirms, CVN-74 has now reached its destination for which it was commissioned several months prematurely. But before you get your war hats out, note that that other aircraft carrier which is conducting its final voyage, the CVN-65 Enterprise, has decided to take a bit of a break and left the Arabian Gulf area for a scehduled R&R port visit in Naples, Italy. In a week or so, shore leave will be over and CVN will be back to join everyone else, at which point the US will finally have three aircraft carriers just off the Iranian coastline ready to rumble.

There is little doubt that asset prices have responded to Central Bank promises and actions. Even as bottom-up fundamentals are fading, top-down index 'nominal prices' rise on the back of magical multiple expansion - which is defended from on high by sell-side strategists the world over on the back of 'recovery' is just around the corner. The trouble is there's a limit and it seems - from QE2 and LTRO - that we are rapidly approaching that limit; and with earnings outlooks being revised lower, perhaps we are at peak P/E for this cycle of QE?

As incredible as it may seem, there is more than just November 6th to worry about for the next three months. We present UBS's summary and relative importance of the main economic events and political dates through the end of the year. Of course, it is dominated by the politics in Europe, US, and China, but key economic data points that are required to maintain multiple expansion hopes are also included.