Archive - Oct 2012 - Story

That troubled battery-maker A123 has just filed for bankruptcy (and no, in this case bankruptcy is not equal with deleveraging) should not be news to anyone who has followed the US government subsidized trainwreck of a company (especially since as we updated yesterday it was known it would miss its bond payment today). Well actually we take that back. The bankruptcy may come as a surprise to the president. Recall that Obama called A123 Chief Executive Officer David Vieau and then-Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm during a September 2010 event celebrating the opening of the plant in Livonia, Michigan, that the company received the U.S. grant to help build. Surprise and epic humiliation that is. "This is about the birth of an entire new industry in America -- an industry that’s going to be central to the next generation of cars," Obama said in the phone call, according to a transcript provided by the White House. "When folks lift up their hoods on the cars of the future, I want them to see engines and batteries that are stamped: Made in America." Needless to say if the car is a flaming Fisker Karma or Chevy Volt, the hoods may be too hot to lift but that's another story. Most importantly, it will come as a big loss to the firm's equity holders (who have already lost their entire investment so hardly a surprise) creditors, who will likely be wiped out almost entirely (listed below), but most importantly US taxpayers, who funded the firm not on one occasion as conventional wisdom will have it, but with four distinct Federal and State agency grants, as is highlighted in the first day motion affidavit by David Pyrstash in support of the Chapter 11 petition.

Speaking on conditions of anonymity, four administration officials have commented that they are actively seeking a target and readying strike forces and drones as retribution for the Sept 11 attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi. As AP reports, if the administration does find a target, officials say it still has to weigh whether the short-term payoff of exacting retribution on al-Qaida is worth the risk that such strikes could elevate the group's profile in the region, alienate governments the U.S. needs to fight the group in the future and do little to slow the growing terror threat in North Africa. The efforts show the tension of the White House's need to demonstrate it is responding forcefully to al-Qaida, balanced against its long-term plans to develop relationships and trust with local governments and build a permanent U.S. counterterrorist network in the region. The verbal rhetoric is escalating from Biden's last year comment that "if you do harm to America, we will track you to the gates of hell if need be." to "If America hits us, I promise you that we will multiply the Sept. 11 attack by 10," said Oumar Ould Hamaha, a spokesman for the Islamists in northern Mali. U.S. officials say covert action is more likely.

Gideon Gono, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe who destroyed the Zim dollar by creating hyperinflation, weighs in on the parallels between QE3 and the policy he followed last decade, in the RBZ’s mid-term 2012 monetary policy statement. Even though Ben Bernanke and Mario Draghi and all other central bankers will try to convince you that what they are doing are really different to what Gideon Gono did, you should really be taking Gideon Gono more seriously, who is basically admitting that the money printing strategy does not work to ‘stimulate’ growth. All it can stimulate are high- and hyperinflation risks.

First the Greek Troika fiasco, and now the only reason stocks had to ramp today, just got rejected:

• SENIOR GERMAN LAWMAKER SAYS MEDIA REPORT ON SPAIN APPLYING FOR PRECAUTIONARY CREDIT LINE "OVER-INTERPRETED" HIS COMMENTS
• SENIOR GERMAN LAWMAKER SAYS WAS NOT REFERRING TO SPAIN IN HIS COMMENTS TO BLOOMBERG

Watch Simon Potter the market completely ignore this rejection of the catalyst for today's spike and continue levtiating higher as Liberty 33 continues doing what it does best: expanding credit multiples, even as it destroys cash flows.

UPDATE: Added Credit Positioning - most bullish since 2008

We noted yesterday that NYSE short-interest dropped to a five-month low removing much of the kindling for a centrally-planned world of goal-seek'd equity wealth creation. So when we hear that sentiment is so bad, and everyone's bearish - the simple fact is: they are not. To wit, the S&P 500 e-mini futures contract - the most liquid equity trading vehicle in the world - has pushed to its most net-long position since December 2008. The last time equity traders were this net-long, the S&P fell 22% in the next 11 days. The psychology may be different - from "surely it can't drop any more" then to the current "it can't drop much because Bernanke/Draghi has our back" - but the positioning is just as complacent this time.

What the Spanish rumor of a bailout lite (as a reminder, the full blown Spanish bailout has already been largely priced in, and today's action is a very confused market pricing in a second, bailout-lite) giveth, Greece taketh away. 

Japan's economy has stagnated for two decades despite the global economy experiencing one of its greatest economic booms ever. Japan continues to avoid fiscal or financial crisis, and perhaps it can do so for decades to come. But we should note that Japan has had the incredible, once-in-a-lifetime tailwind of a global boom for the past 23 years. That has enabled Japan, and all the other developed economies, the means to avoid facing their structural and demographic problems. If Japan's economy has stagnated during a global boom, what will it do during a global bust? Japan's stable stagnation will continue in a linear fashion--until it doesn't.

Where there were notable developments in today's TIC report, was in the composition of buyers of US paper, which showed that for yet another month, there has been virtually no buying interest in US paper by the biggest non-Fed holder: China, whose total TSY holdings were $1,154 billion, down $12 billion since the beginning of the year, and down a whopping $125 billion from a year ago. Ironically that other massively indebted country, Japan, which has Y1 quadrillion in its own public debt to deal with, for a debt/GDP ratio will above 200%, continues to load up on US paper, as the biggest paper ponzi scheme continues going ever higher and nothing possibly can get in the way. In fact, as the chart below shows, the difference between total Chinese and Japanese holdings has declined to a record low $32 billion, and will likely see Japan surpass China as the biggest holder of US paper very soon. 

Chatter is that Rajoy is waiting for conditions to get worse so he can garner easier terms for a Spanish Bailout and seek a compromise whereby he can take a rescue with honor intact has been found. But broadly speaking, confusion reigns in Europe as we wonder how the European Elites will fudge a third bailout for Greece and the fact that the IMF (as we noted here) have admitted that austerity doesn't work how they thought it should/would. But don't expect anything sudden to replace austerity – it remains the only option today, though the debate has begun. So what about something utterly radical such as Gavyn Davies in the FT yesterday where he wrote: “One radical option which is now being discussed is to cancel (or, in polite language, “restructure”) part of the government debt that has been acquired by the central banks as a consequence of quantitative easing (QE).” How will the central bank be recapitalised if it writes off its assets without money printing – why not when inflationary expectations are low? And what would it do to banks?

Here is the bottom line. From the day Pandit took control in December 2007 until today, C stock is down 90%.......Even as Pandit has been paid a total of over $260 million during his CEO tenure, even including his famous $1 comp received in 2010. While CEO of Citigroup in 2007, Vikram Pandit earned an annualized compensation of $3,164,320, which included a base salary of $250,000, stocks granted of $2,914,320, and options granted of $0. In 2008, he earned a total compensation of $38,237,437, which included a base salary of $958,333, stocks granted of $28,830,000, and options granted of $8,432,911. In 2009 he received total compensation of $128,751, including base salary of $125,001; In 2010 he received total compensation of $1,00; In 2011 he received total compensation of $14,857,103 including base salary of $1,671,370. Oh, and this number includes the $165 million Pandit received for his low performing hedge fund which was purchased by Citi in 2007, and was closed by Citi a few months later for epic underperformance.

September core CPI, ex such trivial, hedonically displacable items as food and energy (remember: when in doubt, just nibble on your obsolete first generation iPad, for which you waited hours in line - cause Bill Dudley said so) rose a tiny 0.1%, on expectations of a 0.2% pick up. Of course, for those lucky few who still get to eat and/or have a job to drive to, inflation rose by 0.6% in September from August, higher than expectations of a 0.5% increase. Luckily, in America the intersection of the Venn Diagrams for those who i) eat and ii) drive is so small it is barely worth mentioning...

Mr. Corbat most recently served as the CEO of Citi Holdings, Citi's portfolio of non-core businesses and assets. During his tenure running Citi Holdings, Mr. Corbat oversaw the divestiture of more than 40 businesses, including the IPO and sale of Citi's remaining stake in Primerica. Mr. Corbat also successfully restructured Citi's consumer finance and retail partner cards businesses and divested more than $500 billion assets, reducing risk on Citi's balance sheet and freeing up capital to invest in Citi's core banking business. Prior to his appointment to lead Citi Holdings, Mr. Corbat was the CEO of Citi's Global Wealth Management unit, which comprised Smith Barney and the Citi Private Bank. Prior to this, he was a Managing Director and Head of the Global Corporate Bank and Global Commercial Bank at Citi, a role in which he led the firm's efforts to provide best-in-class financial services to top-tier multi-national corporations and financial institutions around the world. Previously, Mr. Corbat was Head of Global Emerging Markets in Markets and Banking, responsible for the origination, trading and sales of emerging markets fixed income debt. He joined Salomon Brothers, a Citi legacy firm, in 1983 in the Fixed Income Sales Department in Atlanta and has worked in New York City and London.

Remember when we said the Citi numbers were a miserable joke? Apparently at least two people (not Jim Cramer who absolutely loved Citi's "hairless" result) were aware of this:

• CITIGROUP NAMES MICHAEL CORBAT AS CEO VIKRAM PANDIT STEPS DOWN
• CITIGROUP PRESIDENT-COO JOHN P. HAVENS ALSO RESIGNS
• CITIGROUP NAMES MICHAEL CORBAT AS CEO VIKRAM PANDIT STEPS DOWN
• CITIGROUP BOARD UNANIMOUSLY ELECTED CORBAT TO CEO
• CITIGROUP SAYS HAVENS HAD BEEN PLANNING TO RETIRE AT YEAR END

And so the rat procession out of the titanic begins.

Curious why the EURUSD has taken off like a stung dog again? The same reason as always: posturing out of Germany that contrary to previous Reuters misreports, it actually is happy with Spain doing a mini-bailout. To wit:

• GERMANY OPEN TO PRECAUTIONARY CREDIT FOR SPAIN, LAWMAKERS SAY

And now the ball is back in Rajoy's court, as Spain will have no choice but to implement this mini-bailout, which is not the full ESM rescue package, but will allow the ECB to buy piecemeal Spanish debt (as opposed to merely dangling the threat it will do so). The bad news is that like QEternity, the open-endedness of the ECB threat to monetize Spanish debt is far more powerful than the actual process. Furthermore, the entire Spanish bailout, not just the partial one, has already been long priced in in its bonds. In other words, this is nothing but posturing, but one meant to push Spain ever closer to requesting not only a small bailout request (one which would not allow the ESM to monetize Spanish debt in the primary market, but will allow ECB to buy Spanish bonds in the secondary market), but a full blown one. Finally, never forget that to Germany this is all a process geared for one simple thing: keeping Europe's biggest and most relatively undercapitalized bank - Deutsche Bank - afloat. If this means rescuing it via the guise of Spain, so be it.

Goldman is back. After the market beating hedge fund, which unlike its peers needs no DVA/CVA or loan loss releases to pad its numbers, was forced to exist in the scandalous shadow of its larger peers (coughjamiedimoncough), the tentacled one is back to making waves on its own, following a Q3 EPS beat of $2.85 on expectations of a $2.28 print, and revenues of $8.35 billion on expectations of $7.18 billion. The reason for the beat? A surge in Investing and Lending (aka Prop trading) revenues, which is the biggest quarterly variable, and which soared to $1.8 billion in Q3 from a paltry $203 million in Q2, and from a major loss of $2.5 billion in Q3 of 2011. All other business segments were in line, with IB down modestly from Q2, Client Flow in FICC in line sequentially, Client Flow in equities rising modestly due to a jump in Equities Client Execution, and a sequential drop in Investment Management. And that's it: no balance sheet or accounting gimmicks, which one has to at least give GS credit for. The bottom line for GS employees as a result of its hedge fund once again performing as expected? With compensation margin fixed firmly at 44% of net revenues, this means employee comp provisioning soared to $3.675 billion, far above the $2.9 billion in Q2 and $1.6 billion in Q3 2011. It also meant that the average comp for the firm's 32,600 in total staff at period end (up from 32,300 in Q2 and 32,400 in Q1) is now an average $404,172, the most since Q2 2011. It just may be a great bonus year for Goldman after all.