Archive - Dec 10, 2012 - Story

Since the crisis first began in 2006, developed world equities are still lower, real GDP has struggled to grow above its pre-crisis peak in most countries, core bond yields are sharply lower with peripheral yields higher and with credit yields generally performing well albeit it with fairly extreme volatility. Credit has been helped by the fact that the authorities way of dealing with this crisis to date has been through money printing and liquidity facilities to help prevent mass defaults which, as is is clear in the chart below, has led to a weakening in the normal relationship between GDP and defaults. Just as one of the features of the last 20 years in Japan’s post-bubble adjustment and lost growth period is that defaults have remained very low; it appears as long as money printing props up the debt market, defaults are likely to be much lower than the underlying economic environment suggests they should be. However, as we noted previously, the mark-to-market volatility on the way may just become too much to bear for all but the most long-term bond rotators.

Three months ago many were angry and surprised (or not at all, as realistically this was a perfectly logical move), when Bernard Arnault, head of LVMH and the richest man in socialist France, decided he had had enough, and would move to Belgium to avoid Hollande's punitive taxes on France's wealthiest. The indignant media's mocking response in France was fast and furious, with many delighted to see the billionaire leave. We wonder how the media will respond as more and more wealthy Frenchmen decide, now that the seal has been broken, to do just that and leave France to its grassroots movement where it is only "fair" that those who have more income and/or wealth, pay more than everyone else to keep the myth of the ponzi scheme formerly known as the welfare state alive and well. Such as one of France's most popular actors, Gerard Depardieu, who is the latest high profile departure to leave his native country and go to Belgium to avoid the second coming of the "fairness doctrine" (the first one of course, doing less than spectacularly with that whole USSR thing).

Everyone interested in real estate is asking the same question: Is the bottom in, or is this just another "green shoots" recovery that will soon wilt? Let’s start by reviewing the fundamental forces currently affecting real estate valuations. ZIRP has created a "crowded trade" in low-risk investments with attractive yields such as corporate bonds, dividend stocks, and real estate, which is being fueled by a self-reinforcing perception that "the bottom is in." The question now is will these forces continue pushing prices higher? If these forces deteriorate or lose their effectiveness, then the “green shoots” of investor interest may wither as the U.S. economy joins Europe and Japan by re-entering recession.

"It’s all about Politicians, Central Bankers and Growth for 2013" is how Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid perfectly sums up the year ahead. While he notes that Central bankers have increasingly eliminated the immediate tail-risk across the globe, he adds that they have not yet found the solution to weak/negative growth and how to successfully de-lever over indebted economies. This argues for a risk-off (periodic growth disappointments), risk-on world (liquidity injections) to continue as far as the eye can see. We tend to agree that the biggest risk to this comes from politicians. The fiscal cliff is the near-term risk but the Italian elections also loom and execution risk in Spain must be closely watched. It could be a decent year for markets but with huge risk off moments. If politicians drop the ball and renege on promises or get forced by the electorate to embark on a different path against the wishes of the EU/ECB then huge risk aversion could still easily occur.

It's all good. That's what Monti says about the political 'vacuum' being left behind. Sure enough those cagey bond chaps did not like the news and with Italian and Spanish bond spreads now wider by 40-50bps in the last 4 days, and Italy seeing its worse 5-day run in over 6 months, one could be forgiven for believing some semblance of sanity was returning to pricing in Europe. But no. Stocks, on average, ended the day nicely green - buoyed by a surge in the US into the European close. Spain and Italy's stock markets did drop but regained a lot of the loss by the close. Credit markets (IG, HY, and financials) remain notable underperformers - just unable to muster the enthusiasm of equity holders into year-end. Europe's VIX rose to 17.4% - breaking back north of the US VIX (after recoupling last week). EURUSD is going out unchanged from Friday's close - having traded 50 pips lower early last night.

A oft-mentioned paradox in the markets the last few days has been the seeming strength in broad equity indices, even as the very core of most managers' holdings - AAPL - goes entirely pear-shaped. We suspect this chart will go a long way to solving the paradox. It appears a major aspect of the S&P 500 strength is unwinds of AAPL longs hedged against market shorts (as managers attempted to segregate AAPL's strength - trying to transform high beta in their alpha). AAPL's weight in the index and in manager's portfolios certainly provides enough ammunition for algos to see momentum and extend any real-money forced 'buying' in the index from this effect - and so we levitate. How much further can it go? It is unclear for sure; but the divergence will become more and more painful for those that have yet to unwind...

Excessive monetary stimulus and low interest rates create financial bubbles. Seymour Pierce's Thunder Road report notes that central banks are creating the ultimate bubble in money itself, as they fight the downward leg in this Long Wave cycle. This is the biggest debt bubble in history. Each time deflationary forces re-assert themselves, offsetting inflationary forces (monetary stimulus in some form) have to be correspondingly more aggressive to keep systemic failure at bay. The avoidance of a typical deflationary resolution of this Long Wave is incubating a coming wave of inflation. This will not be the conventional “demand pull” inflation understood by most economists. The end game is an inflationary/currency crisis, dislocation across credit and derivative markets, and the transition to a new monetary system , with a new reserve currency replacing the dollar. This makes gold and silver the “go-to” assets for capital preservation.

Nothing but smiles today in Europe's ivory tower...

Need a quick and amusing pick up to start off another dreary, centrally-planned week? Well... "You asked for miracles, Theo, I give you the full of pomp and circumstance ceremony of the European Union receiving the Nobel Peace Prize."

If anyone needs a definitive confirmation that when it comes to predicting the future, "expert economists" are not only completely clueless but always approach the future with a baseline of endless and unquestioned bullishness, which in the past decade has ended up being humiliatingly wrong, we present the following charts from Deutsche's Jim Reid, showing the jawdropping cumulative error rate in GDP forecasts in the past decade among those countries that make the headline news every day. What do the charts show: in the 9 years since the first forecast in October 2003, these 6 countries are 20.5% (Italy), 16.9% (Spain), 10.4% (France), 3.7% (Germany), 11.3% (UK), and 15.8% (US) behind on a cumulative basis what economists forecast back in 2003! This forecasting error has become more severe since the crisis begun. Since October 2007 (i.e. for the 5 years between 2008-2012) we are 16.4% behind cumulative forecasts in Italy, 18.1% in Spain, 10.6% in France, 7.0% in Germany, 14.7% in the UK and 10.6% in the US.

Greece failed to persuade enough of its bondholders to complete the buyback that is so politically mandated by the Troika and so instead of admitting defeat, they have extended the deadline (til tomorrow at 12pm London). Current participation is around EUR26bn vs the EUR30bn target. The bottom line is that the buyback has created an upsurge in price for long- and short-dated GGBs as the 'Greater Fool' theory comes fully into play. Of course, with the Troika making the GGB (and its buyback) now the fulcrum security for Europe's 'break-up' risk, holding out for bigger and better offers seems the game for hedgies at least - there is always the Greatest Fool of EU leaders ready to step in. The paradox, of course, is that the more bonds are being bought the longer the buyback lingers on hopes Greece will keep on bending and keep rising the repurchase price; culminating with these being bought at par and replacing 30bn in old debt with 30bn in new debt. The buyback process has driven prices up dramatically - backfiring considerably on any real gains for the Greek people - but that's hardly the point eh?

The hoaxes remain and grow more cumbersome and obvious every day - and yet, the headline-reading machines and self-referentially-biased managers of stocks justify just one more BTFD episode. To wit, Mark Grant discusses the Greek buyback debacle with its political (and entirely not economic) mandate, noting "Mr. Draghi knows the truth and Ms. Lagarde knows the truth and their credibility is whacked once again;" Berlusconi's potential return in Italy and the hoax of any pretense of an entente cordiale re-emerging between north and south flies out the window; the 'tax the rich' hoax as a solution for years of profligate spending and the 'then vs us' meme that is increasingly spewed forth from DC; and the ultimate hoax of Bernanke's money printing morasse. Happy Monday.

Regular readers are aware that one of our favorite data series when it comes to demonstrating the quality aspect of the American "recovery" (the quantity is sufficiently taken care of with part-time workers filling in positions without benefits and job security in the New Normal) is that showing the annual average hourly earnings growth in nominal terms, which in November posted the tiniest bounce from its all time low print of 1.2%, rising to 1.3%. The problem as noted above, is that this is nominal wage growth. It therefore excludes the impact of inflation which according to the CPI, rose by 2.2% in October, or, in other words, wage growth was negative in real terms. But it wasn't negative only in October and November. When one takes the Y/Y change in average hourly earnings and subtracts the Y/Y change in CPI one gets a very troubling picture: wages have risen below the rate of inflation for 22 consecutive months, with real wages printing their last positive number back in January 2011 and negative ever since!

Or why rumors of a triumphal Berlusconi (head of the PdL party) return to the Italian Prime Ministerial post are greatly exaggerated.

• Central Banks Ponder Going Beyond Inflation Mandates (BBG)
• Bloomberg Weighs Making Bid for The Financial Times (NYT)
• Hedge Funds Fall Out of Love with Equities (FT)
• Obama and Boehner resume US fiscal cliff talks (FT)
• Italy Front-Runner Vows Steady Hand (WSJ)
• Spanish Bailout Caution Grows as Business Lobbies Back Rajoy (BBG)
• Japan sinks into fresh recession (Reuters)
• China economic recovery intact, but weak exports drag (Reuters)
• Greece extends buyback offer to reach target (Reuters)  ... but on Friday they promised it was done
• Basel Liquidity Rule May Be Watered Down Amid Crisis (BBG) ... just before they are scrapped
• Irish, Greek Workers Seen Suffering Most in 2013 Amid EU Slump (BBG)