Archive - Dec 6, 2012 - Story

And so the BLS and DOL are back to "seasonal adjustments." Because in a week in which the Sandy effect was supposed to fade, at least on a seasonally adjusted basis, nothing could spoil the party. And sure enough, the headline number dropped from an upward revised (how else) 395,000 to 370,000, well below the expected 380,000. The real story, however, is how the DOL is doing all it can to smooth the noise, because in the week ended December 1, Not Seasonally Adjusted Initial Claims soared by 139,678 - the highest since January, to a whopping 498,619. Compare this to the SA number of 370,000, and one can see why in the aftermath of Sandy, it is quite clear that between hurricane distortions and seasonal adjustments, the headline number is completely meaningless. Confirming this was the surge in Continuing Claims, which ripped from 2,835,671 to 3,301,200, an increase in continuing claims of 465,529, or nearly half a million, in one week! But at least the pre-election boost of those collecting extended claims is over, with those on EUCs down by 110K in one week, thereby ending the extended Uncle Sam handout for over a hundred thousand Americans, who will now be forced to seek solace in disability benefits.

You know the drill: 45 minutes after the ECB announcement we get the presser. Will Draghi say anything catalytic? Most likely not: the only variable is whether or not Draghi sees a reduction in inflation and growth (despite all the recent irrational euphoria from various sellside desks), leaving the door open for negative deposit rates. Remember: the "bazooka variable" - the OMT - is now solely in Spain's, and out of the ECB's, hands now.

*DRAGHI SAYS ECB CUT GROWTH FORECASTS, SEES `DOWNSIDE RISKS'
*DRAGHI SEES WEAK GROWTH EXTENDING INTO 2013 BEFORE RECOVERY
*DRAGHI SAYS GOVTS MUST REDUCE FISCAL STRUCURAL IMBALANCES
*DRAGHI SAYS FISCAL POSITION IN U.S. MAY DAMP CONFIDENCE LONGER

LOL!?

Any fringe hopes that the ECB may cut its discount rate to negative were just dashed as Goldman, pardon the ECB, decided to keep rates unchanged, largely as expected.

Yesterday we presented Goldman's first 3 Top Trades for 2013 as they come out, while also noting Goldman's recent disfatuation (sic) with gold. Today, we present Goldman's 4th Top Trade for 2013, which is, drumroll, to go long Spanish Government Bonds, specifically, the 5 year, which should be bought at a current yield of 4.30%. with a target of 3.50% and a stop loss of 5.50%. This reco comes out after the SPGB complex has already enjoyed unprecedented gains - but not driven by economic improvement, far from it - but merely on the vaporware threat of ECB OMT intervention. Of course, once the "threat of intervention" moves to "fact of intervention", everything will promptly unwind as it always does (QE was far more potent as a stock boost when it was merely a daily threat: the market's peak not incidentally occurred the day after Bernanke dropped his entire load: one simply can't move beyond infinity). And with Spain's massive bond buying cliff in Q1 2013, the days its bailout could be postponed are coming to an end.

• MSM discovers window dressing: Fund Managers Lift Results With Timely Trading Sprees (WSJ)
• White House Unyielding on Debt Limit (WSJ)
• Obama, Boehner talk; Geithner prepared to go off "cliff" (Reuters)
• Republicans urged to resist tax rises (FT)
• China looms large over Japanese poll (FT)
• As predicted here two months ago, Greek Bond Buyback Leads S&P to Cut to Selective Default (BBG)
• Japan opposition LDP set to win solid election majority – polls (BBG), but...
• Japan Opposition LDP’s Main Ally Cautions Abe on BOJ Pressure (BBG)
• U.S. and Europe Tackle Russia Trade (WSJ)
• King Seen Maintaining QE as Osborne Extends Fiscal Squeeze (BBG)
• Syria pound fall suggests currency crisis (FT)
• Irish budget seeks extra €3.5bn (FT)
• U.K. Extends Cuts Due to Poor Outlook (WSJ)
• ECB Seen Refraining From Rate Cuts as Yields Sink on Bond Plan (BBG)

While trading during US hours is all about the Cliff On/Cliff Off debate, the rest of the world is simple: the overnight session begins (and largely ends) with whether or not China has done another reverse repo (if yes, then PBOC will not lower rates, and inject unsterilized billions into the market) and whether the Shanghai Composite is up or down. Last night, after jumping by 3% the session before, it was down 0.13% to 2029. Was this it for the great Chinese "bottom?" Japan may or may not figure in the equations, although with the 10 Year future just hitting a record overnight, it is amusing to see how the bond complex is indicating record deflation just in time for the market to anticipate a surge in inflation. Ah, the joys of frontrunning central planning's monetization of government bonds. And then we move on to Europe, which is a whole new level of basket case-ness...

The 8 day mini war between Israel and Gaza has come and gone and any attempts at provoking a wider regional conflict, one involving Iran (if indeed this was the intention), have failed. Which means the fallback plan - Syria - is back in play. And sure enough, as both the most recent naval map update, which shows a US aircraft carrier and a big deck amphibious warfare ship, both of which house thousands of troops and numerous offensive aircraft, and an RT news flash, indicating that thousands of troops have amassed near the Syrian shore confirm, the time for a US invasion may be near. The alibi? "Chemical weapons" of mass or non-mass destruction. In other words the Iraq playbook all over again.