Archive - Dec 2012 - Story

A rather curious result in today's just completed 3 Year $32 billion bond auction, which concluded on surprisingly weak terms, despite the High Yield coming at 0.327% or precisely where the When Issued expected it would, which also happens to be the lowest yield in the history of the auction. So far so good - where things got thorny is in the internals, first the Bid to Cover which printed at a surprisingly low 3.356, the lowest since February 2012, but a bigger surprise was the Indirect Take Down, which as validated by the recent trend, just dipped to 21.9% of the issue, the lowest Indirect Takedown since 2007! It also saw the Direct allocation surpassing the Indirect for the first time in history. Just as surprising is that the Indirect tender into the auction was a meager $9 billion, leading to a very high 77.3% hit rate. Obviously America's foreign lenders have better thing to do than to lock up cash with Uncle Sam even for 3 years, despite Ben's guarantee that there will be no volatility in the throutg "mid-2015." Or perhaps due to. Finally, it also means that ever more Fed monetization will have to take place to rotate bonds from PDs back to the Fed, and also means that with the Fed already monetizing 100% of all long-dated issuance, he will have to move ever further left.

Former BP engineer Kurt Mix is being charged by federal prosecutors with obstructing the law. They believe that he deleted thousands of emails and text messages tied to the company’s efforts to measure the size of the underwater leak. The emails that Mix’s lawyer is set to release in February will supposedly prove his innocence by showing that he deleted nothing, and at the same time show that BP in fact knew about the size of the flow rate long before they advised the US authorities. BP always claimed that they didn’t learn of the spills full extent until after April, when in fact they knew almost immediately. The emails show that just two days after the explosion occurred Mix sent in an estimation of the flow rate to his supervisor of between 62,000 and 146,000 barrels a day. BP executives told the coast guard that their best estimates held the leak at 1,000 barrels a day.

All the extraordinary measures deployed since 2008 to jumpstart the U.S. economy are one-offs: either they cannot be repeated or they have lost their effectiveness. As a result, we now have an extraordinarily fragile one-off economy that is dependent on "emergency" measures that cannot be withdrawn even as their utility in the real economy dwindles by the day. These two dynamics--declining effectiveness and unrepeatability--have created a uniquely fragile economy. Once you become dependent on extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus, withdrawing the stimulus will trigger a recessionary cascade. But continuing the stimulus cannot duplicate its initial effectiveness, as malinvestment and unintended consequences degrade the initial boost.

Update: ES moves down a whopping 1 pt when Boehner says "we are broke."

Update 2: Boehner ends about 3 minutes in, nothing notable to report: the GOP is waiting for a proposal from the White House, which in turn is waiting for a proposal from the GOP. And so on.

If the past few days' silence from D.C.was supposed to indicate progress in Fiscal Cliff talks between the GOP and democrats, then will today's impromptu press conference by Boehner be spun as even more indicative of progress? This may be complicated when he admits, once more, there has been none to talk of. Luckily, Boehner has long since served his duty, with his November 16 conference when he and Pelosi single-handedly stopped the market from plunging to 2012 lows, and AAPL from getting a 4 handle. All his subsequent appearances have been quite superfluous. Watch him live below.

Equity markets have pulled away from the rest of risk in a wonderfully dramatic manner this morning as they set their sights on the pre-election highs and the running of the stops. We are now back at Bernanke QE3 spike levels - which we are sure makes perfect sense to someone - anyone, Bueller? For now, it seems like we auctioned up to clear out any last remaining weak hand shorts given the lack of support for this from any other market.

Relative to interest rates (and swap spread differentials), the EURUSD is at almost its most 'expensive' in 15 months. It appears support for a 'strong' EUR is waning; as the swap rate tends to signal, even ECB President Draghi - as Bloomberg Briefs notes - suggested support on the Governing Council for a reduction of the main policy rate has increased appearing to have used the downward revision to the Eurosystem staff GDP forecasts as an excuse to soften his tone. Between Spain's auctions hitting a wall of 'virtual intervention limits' and Italy's political turmoil, it appears (at least fundamentally) that the EUR should be weaker (we suepct currently aided by incessant repatriation flows). Options markets are pricing in expectations of further weakness but it appears the EURUSD rate remains bound by the Fed-to-ECB expectations of a wholesale Spanish bailout (increase in ECB balance sheet) and the Fed's expansion via QE4. For now, positioning is not indicating any squeeze with the net speculative shorts at the lowest level since September 11 - coincidentally the last time EURUSD was so rich to swap spreads.

Reuters has disclosed the outcome of the Greek debt buyback, citing a Eurozone official, which while completed at €32 billion, has missed it hard goal by €450 million, and as a result the completely unbelievable Greek 2020 debt/GDP target will be 126.6% instead of 124%. Reuters also reports that the average price on the buyback was 33.5 cents on the euro. As a result of the higher price paid for the buyback, the outcome is that Greek debt/GDP will be reduced by 9.5%, or less than the 11% targeted. Earlier, it was also reported that with virtually all Greek banks having sold out of their Greek bond exposure, all Greek private debt is now in foreign hands. It is unclear how holdouts will be dealt with, and what, if any, rights they will have following the transaction. Finally, as to the 2020 debt/GDP target, one can only hope that the Greek GDP, which is a rather critical component of the debt/GDP calculation, will now rise in a straight diagonal line up and to the right as the Troika expects it to do. Sadly, it won't.

While everyone loves a good inspirational movie - Rudy (every underdog has his day), Field of Dreams (if you build it they will come), Million Dollar Baby (be relentless); it is a somewhat sad reflection of reality that in fact - hope and trying hard is simply not enough (especially when you are a debt-saturated global economy). Two data points highlight this better than any others. Today we see wholesale inventories relative to sales at multi-year highs (aside from the great recession's peak) - having risen for almost two years now as we have built 'stuff' but the buyers just haven't come. And to rub a little more salt into the eternal optimist's wounds, it appears that Small Business Optimism has continued its divergence from equities (which notably saw stocks crash the previous two times). Equities remain the hope-driven liquidity-fueled home of the algo-optimist while all around struggles '300'-like with economic reality. Are stocks about to have their "I see dead people" moment?

There was a time when working on Wall Street, either on the sell or buy side,  was the dream of every able-bodied worker who could do simple addition in their head and wasn't afraid to cut the occasional corner in exchange for a bottle of Bollinger and a sizable year end bonus. That, however, was so 2006 and with the long overdue conversion of the banking sector into a utility the stratospheric compensation payments from the peak of the credit bubble are long gone. So what is the New Normal dream job? Become a California state worker, preferably one who deals with neurotic and/or crazy people (i.e., a psychiatrist), and rake it in. The following chart from Bloomberg shows just how generous the otherwise insolvent state of California is when it comes to paying its public servants, and the 100%+ increase in California employee state pay since 2005. Needless to say, this is a rate of increase in compensation that 99% of workers in the private sector would die for.

Warren Buffett is one of America’s biggest bailout beneficiaries, having profited hugely from buying into firms whose assets were subsequently bailed out. Shortly after the crisis began in 2008, Warren Buffett loaned money to, and bought options from, Goldman Sachs, seemingly with the knowledge the bailout of AIG — a counterparty to which Goldman had massive, massive exposure — would take place. Dimon as Treasury Secretary would intend more of the same. Dimon and Buffett and others like them believe in having their cake and eating it. Buffett and Dimon surely have in mind more cronyism, bailouts and free lunches, but the reality of the next four years and beyond may be very different indeed.

So just what is below "stall-speed" growth in the New Normal? And with 48 out of 49 economists now predicting what we said would happen back in September, namely that the Fed will go all in with QEternity⁺¹ and take its balance sheet to $4 trillion (and then $5 trillion in 2014) yet firmly holding their 2013 year end GDP forecast at 2.0%, lower than Q3 2011's 2.7%, does it mean that even $1 trillion in additional flow and stock from the Fed can barely keep the economy above the Old Normal stall speed definition? What exactly would happen if the Fed were to not monetize hundreds of billions in debt? We shiver to even think.

Yesterday's trading was a balance between Italy fears and fiscal cliff hopes-fears-and-hopes-again. While UBS' Art Cashin notes that on the bright side, this will all be over on December 21st when the Mayans predicted the end of the world, he also details what is perhaps even more fearsome - not-the-end-of-the-world as, in his words, demographics, destiny, and the fiscal cliff loom very large not just for the next few weeks but heading out over the next decade as baby boomers retire. As Cashin so wisely points out: "Somewhat lost in the posturing is the fact that the Fiscal Cliff was put in place to force Washington to address the exploding government debt problem. That problem is greatly exacerbated by the rapidly changing demographics in this country. If you fast forward 20 years until all the boomers are retired government debt (taking into account unfunded liabilities) soars to $202 trillion.  Perhaps worth remembering that "The real problem is that regardless of the resolution it will not solve anything. We have passed the point of no return. We cannot mathematically solve this debt problem. We can only slow its progression."

The US Census Bureau reported that in October, the total deficit with China hit a record $29.5 billion. What did America need to export so much that it is willing to impair its GDP (net imports are a GDP drain) and boost the GDP of China? "Primarily computers and toys, games, and sporting goods." In other words, gizmos and iPhones. And no, China did not buy US bonds - recall that China has boycotted US Treasurys for precisely one year - so the age old equality that we export China worthless paper in exchange for just as worthless gizmos, yet somehow everyone benefits, is no longer valid. What the US does, however, export to China, is inflation, courtesy of the USDCNY peg, and is the reason why the PBOC is still terrified, and certainly will be after Bernanke announces QE4EVA (RIP QEternity) tomorrow, to ease more as the last thing it can afford is to create its own inflation in addition to importing America's.

The boost to GDP from the declining US trade deficit is over. While the September trade deficit number was revised further lower, to $40.3 billion from $41.5 previously, October saw a pick up to $42.2 billion, slightly less than the expected $42.7 billion, but a headwind to Q4 GDP already. As a result, expect a modest boost to Q3 GDP in its final revision, even as Q4 GDP continues to contract below its consensus of sub stall-speed ~1%. The reason for the decline: a 3.6% decline in exports of goods and services. This was the biggest percent drop in exports since January 2009 as the traditional US import partners are all wrapped in a major recession. What helped, however, was the offsetting drop in imports by 2.1%, the lowest since April 2011, as US businesses are likewise consumed by a concerns about the global economy. And without global trade, whose nexus just happens to be Europe, there can be no global or even regional recovery. So far, all hopes of a pick up in global economy have been largely dashed. Yet one country benefits from the ongoing US slump is China: imports from China - consisting primarily of computers and toys, games, and sporting goods- jumped 6.4% to a record $40.3 billion, offset be a modest rise in exports - primarily soybeans - to $10.8 billion, bring the China deficit to a record $29.5 billion from $29.1 billion in September. Of course, one wouldn't get that impression looking at the Chinese side of the ledger: the Chinese Customs department, reported a September and October trade surplus with the US amounting to $21.1 and $21.7 billion. One wonders, somewhat, where the over $16 billion difference has gone.

While Europe's confidence-inspired rally is floating all global boats in some magical unicorn-inspired way, the reality is that on the ground in the US, things have never looked worse. The NFIB Small Business Outlook for general business conditions had its own 'cliff' this month and plunged to -35% - its worst level on record - as the creators-of-jobs seem a little less than inspired. Aside from this unbelievably ugly bottom-up situation, top-down is starting to be worrisome also. In a rather shockingly accurate analog, this year's macro surprise positivity has tracked last year's almost perfectly (which means the macro data and analyst expectations have interacted in an almost identical manner for six months). The concerning aspect is that this marked the topping process in last year's macro data as expectations of continued recovery were dashed in a sea of reality (both coinciding with large 'surprise' beats of NFP). We suspect, given the NFIB data, that jobs will not be quite so plentiful (unadjusted for BLS purposes) the next time we get a glimpse.