Archive - Dec 2012 - Story

... in under 140 characters no less

After its biggest miss in four years (following the pre-revision spike to the biggest beat in three years), UMich Consumer Confidence came at 74.5 relative to an 82.0 expectation (biggest miss on record). Hugely down from last month's final print of 82.7, this is the first negative print since July to the lowest since August. Expectations for the future crashed its second largest absolute print on record (-13 to 64.6) to the lowest since Dec 11.  In the typical election year we see a rise in hope and confidence into the election and then a drop off after - it seems we are following that path...

What the granular data shows is that instead of a 146K gain in November, there was actually a drop of 114K jobs when broken down by worker "vintage." But where it gets simply stupid, is that of the 4 age group buckets (16-19, 20-24, 25-54, and 55-69), the biggest gainer continued to be America geriatric work force, which added 177 jobs. As for that key segment of the workforce, the 25-54? Jobs here declined by a whopping 359K in November. And this is good news?

In light of the composition of today's NFP pickup, driven by retail, waste and administrative and hospitality and leisure, all low-wage jobs, even as Construction jobs posted their first decline in many months on the "housing recovery" and on Hurricane Sandy rebuilding, we refreshed the chart showing that there is a quality not just quantity component to the jobs number. Sadly, the quality, in the form of Y/Y change of average hourly earnings, continues to be non-existent.

Looks like Sandy was not an issue at all in the November jobs report which beat in both the number of jobs added, at 146,000 on expectations of 85,000, while the unemployment rate declined to 7.7% from 7.9%, where it was expected to post as well. Watch this space next month for prio revisions: September and October saw 49K downward revisions combined. November will suffer the same fate.

The first of many casualties...

UBS and Nomura have suggested that gold could rise next week as the Federal Reserve may announce further easing at the FOMC meeting – on Tuesday (11/12/12) and Wednesday (12/12/12). Nomura said it is worth considering whether the FOMC will announce further easing to replace so called ‘Operation Twist’. The research house noted that gold remains at the same level as during the October meeting, which suggests gold has not yet priced in any move by the FOMC – creating an opportunity for gold bullion buyers. Regardless of whether the FOMC actually eases at this point – Nomura thinks there is a non-negligible probability – gold is likely to rise. Therefore, Nomura expects gold to rise and prices in this probability as the December meeting approaches, just as gold rose when the September meeting was approaching.

One month after what was dubbed the most anticipated jobs report of all time, we are getting what may be the biggest dud of a monthly NFP update in recent years. The reason is twofold: i) everyone knows it will be ugly, with consensus looking at a +87,000 print, far below the mid-100s seen in the recent past, whether due to a catch up to the pre-election "spin" or due to impacts from Hurricane Sandy and ii) the report will have so many 'adjustments' embedded in it, anyone with a 1st grade econ-propaganda education will be able to spin it upward as they see fit. What is certain is that the broader mainstream media will continue to focus purely on the quantitative aspect of the report, while the real story over the past 3 years has been a qualitative one: a shift to lower paying jobs, a painfully slow (if any) rise in average hourly earnings, a transformation of the US labor pool to "Just In Time" inventory as virtually all new hiring needs are met by temps, and finally a secular shift to an older labor force, as job creation in the 25-54 category since January 2009 is still negative!

• Bundesbank cuts growth outlook as crisis bites (Reuters)
• Strong quake hits off Japan near Fukushima disaster zone (Reuters)
• Greece to Buy Debt It Already Owns to Reach Target (BBG)
• Draghi’s Go-to ECB Seen Risking Credibility Through Overload (BBG)
• Judge urges Apple and Samsung ‘peace’  (FT) ... Alas only the US government has a Magic Money Tree; others need profit
• Fed Exit Plan May Be Redrawn as Assets Near $3 Trillion (BBG)... make that $5 trillion this time in 2014
• Level Global, SAC Fund Managers Ruled Co-Conspirators (BBG)
• Egypt demonstrators reject Mursi call for dialogue (Reuters)
• Japanese Dealerships in China Retrench in Wake of Dispute (BBG)
• Apparel factory fire reveals big brands' shadowy supply chainsa (Reuters)
• Republican Defectors Weigh Deal on Tax-Rate Increase (BBG)

In a day in which it was all supposed to be about today's far weaker (because there is a perfectly good alibi in the face of Hurricane Sandy) Nonfarm payroll report, expected to print at 85,000, due out in 2 hours, once again it is the the "rest of the world" that stole the scene, starting with a reality slam out of Germany whose Bundesbank came out with revised forecast for German economic growth, which collapsed projected 2013 growth from 1.6% to a tiny 0.4%, adding that there are "growth projections risks to the downside" in effect all but sealing Germany's recessionary fate in the coming year, and send the EURUSD to overnight lows. Sure enough, as if to confirm this forecast, moments ago German Industrial Production in October tumbled -2.6%, on expectations of an unchanged print. None of this should come as a surprise to our readers whom we have been warning for weeks and months that the European economic malaise is spreading closer to the core with each passing day. What this means is that as we have been saying for months, slowly but surely the narrative that the ongoing German bailout of Greece is crushing the AAA-rated economy will become louder and louder until it is the German people themselves who demand a severing of all ties with Greece.And speaking of Greece, there are simply no words to explain the stupidity of what may be happening there. Perhaps the following Bloomberg headline captures it best: Greece to Buy Debt It Already Owns to Reach Target. Er, LOLWUT?

As of the end of November, the Consumer Discretionary sectot was the winner year-to-date with financials close behind (both up around 23%). The clear loser across asset classes is Crude Oil (down around 10%). We suspect at the start of the year that very few 'managers' or strategists would have expected anything like the distribution of outcomes that we see here - with EURUSD unchanged and Hedge Funds up just over 3% on average for the year. Some context for what 'could' happen in the remaining three weeks of the year.

Just one more QE-episode... growth will come in two quarters, we promise... housing has bottomed... stocks 'signal' all is well. We have heard these 'meme's a thousand times and yet still what is borrowed is given to shareholders and animal spirits (judging by the dismal confidence among small business leaders) remain mired in the quagmire of uncertainty and risk aversion. Nowhere is this more evident than the roll-over (and now falling) demand for new loans across global credit markets. This is not large public companies borrowing at ultra-rich spreads, courtesy of Bernanke's financial repression forcing supply into IG and HY markets, to merely charm pension funds with dividends; this is real demand for credit (per loan officer surveys) all turning down as the balance-sheet-recession continues.

The Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) is one of the most important organizations we have in America today.  While most of the country lays fast asleep to the dangers of the encroaching surveillance state, the EFF is always vigilantly at work on the front lines.  In their latest article, they show that military drones are already flying all over these United States and, using information received from a FOIA lawsuit they provide important details on what is flying and where.  You may be shocked at some of their conclusions.

There are two approaches to being a sell-side, talking-head, strategist when it comes to China. If China is rising, then hey, global growth is recovering and China's transition is going well - so buy US equities levered to China. If, however, China is falling (or out of favor) then US equity markets are the cleanest dirty shirt and decoupling is the new normal. Thus, no matter what, being long US equities is your staple investment advice - heck it's worked for a few decades, why not? Well the truth is that, empirically, the correlation between US Machinery or Tech Hardware stocks and the Chinese market has risen for six years straight. In other words, there is no decoupling (ever); as goes China, so goes US equities - and that sensitivity has never been higher.