Archive - Dec 2012 - Story

Below is a list of the 4 largest Federal Reserve asset category by notional as of today:

• Treasurys:  $1,655,889 million
• Mortgages: $883,627 million
• Other assets: $209,863 million
• Agency debt: $79,283 million

Quietly, the Fed's Other Assets have overtaken Agencies, and are now the Fed's third largest asset category and about four times the total Fed capital of $55 billion. We have written about these "other assets" in the past; we will likely write about them in the future again, for the simple reason that the chart showing the Fed's notional holdings in this category correlates quite clearly with the parabolic Greek unemployment rate.

Here's 'Buck' to explain, in plain English, "one of the most complex 'but effective' institutions in the United States - The Federal Reserve System". Whether you view for the pure irony of it - or pass on to an Econ PhD friend, this animated cartoon from the St. Louis Fed (funded by our cliff-invoked taxpayer money we are sure) takes us from inception around one hundred years ago to the present-day and covers the three divisions (Reserve Bank, FOMC, and Board of Governors) and three responsibilities (providing financial services, conducting monetary policy, and supervising banks). It seems 'Buck' had not been informed of the other and varied roles the Fed plays in the world's populations' lives. How long before this is required viewing for all K-12 schools nationwide?

We have maintained (here and here) for quite some time that the only true "consumer confidence" statistic one should look at is that of gun sales.  The bottom line is, as Mike Krieger so rightly points out, people do not hoard guns when they are confident about the future of the country, and gun sales have never been better.  More evidence emerged as Smith & Wesson just announced record financial results.

Isaac Newton, the father of classical mechanics and progenitor of nearly every technology we use today, was easily one of the top 10 most influential minds in all of human history... Yet as accomplished as he was, Newton credited the brilliant scientists and philosophers who came before him, acknowledging that his insights would not have been remotely possible without the foundations laid by great thinkers– Archimedes, da Vinci, Descartes, etc. No doubt, all great ideas flourish by expanding upon the works of others. Unfortunately, so do terrible ones. And one of the worst ideas in history that continues to play out today is the grand experiment of fiat money. The idea is simple. Rather than allowing money to be scarce and have intrinsic value, our fiat system grants power to a tiny elite to conjure money out of thin air. Presumably, if the ones in control are smart, honest guys, then everything should be fine. Fiat was a total failure right from the beginning... and yet the economic engines deep below are steered by people who worship at the cult of bad ideas.

As of September 30, the household balance sheet had total assets of $78.2 trillion, of which just $24.6 trillion was in the form of tangible assets (Real Estate, Durable Goods and other), or under one third of total. The balance, or $53.6 trillion, comprising of deposits, corporates, mutual funds, pension funds and other assets, was all in one way or another tied into the stock market and the viability of the financial sector. One can see why with over two thirds of total household assets embedded in the stock market Bernanke will never allow stocks to go down, even if that means monetizing every last one of them (after he is done with all fixed income of course). On the liability side, total debt remained flat with Home Mortgages declining by $0.1 trillion, primarily as a result of discharges, offset by $0.1 trillion increase in Consumer debt. Net result: household net worth at September 30, 2012 for the world's wealthiest nation was $64.8 trillion, or back to where it was in Q4 2006. Somewhere, someone's mouth is watering profusely at the mere though of applying a uniform tax on all household assets...

The antics of the world's most cartoonish CEO, that would be NFLX' Reed Hastings of course, who once upon a time posted on Seeking Alpha telling naysayers not to short him, bro, (only to continue sell his company's stock even as NFLX proceeded to use corporate money to buyback its own stock in the $200+ area), before promptly collapsing to multi-year lows, has finally been called to task by none other than that other most cartoonish of organizations: the SEC, which is now desperate to clean up its image as the bulk of the most coopted personnel are jumping ship, and will likely end up in various Wall Street companies.

Expiring tax and expenditure policies, if not addressed, will likely trigger a US recession in early 2013 that will affect every citizen in the nation. It seems, however, that no matter how much the mainstream media talks about the cliff and its implications, the average-joe is still focused on who will win X-Factor and whether Maria Carey and Nikki Minaj will have a knock-down drag-out fight on American Idol. Into this breach - to educate everyone - steps Bloomberg Briefs' Joe Brusuelas with this excellent primer on the US Fiscal Cliff and its Debt. Notably the senior economist outlines the upcoming risks to the economy, from the pending fiscal shock and why those risks may be greater than policy makers or investors are acknowledging.

The technicals were in charge today as S&P futures coiled around VWAP early on, tested lows, then pushed to highs (coinciding with the 50DMA) - ending the day-session in the green. Low volume and low average trade size suggest this was not the pros filling their boots and the lack of enthusiasm among Treasury traders (despite a very late day ramp higher in yields), FX traders (EUR weakness dragged USD back to Unchanged on the week), and Oil (ending the day -2.9% on the week) didn't fill us with fear of a next leg higher (for now). Gold and stocks traded tick for tick most of the day as the precious metal toyed with $1700 again and HYG (the high-yield bond ETF) also recoupled with SPY (stocks) all day (shifting richer to its fair-value). Of course, AAPL is the name of the day with its death spiral, VWAP save, and VWAP reversion amid gigantic volume - but low average trade size (to close +1.5%). VIX ignored equity strength and closed +0.15 vols at 16.6% (very close to where it opened).

Just yesterday, Goldman Sachs suggested its clients should sell their gold (to them?) as the precious metal cycle had turned. It seems Morgan Stanley disagrees; the firm's preferred fundamental metal exposure for 20913 is Gold. Expecting Silver to outperform also (given its 'cheaper' store of value), MS believes nothing has changed on the fundamental thesis for owning gold as the adoption of QE 3 (and 4...) and the ECB's commitments (and BoJ) remain the most important factors for a continuation of weakness in the TWI trend for the US Dollar. They also add that low nominal and negative real interest rates, ongoing geopolitical risk in the Middle East and continued mine supply issues are also supportive. From India and ETF demand to central bank buying and USD weakness - MS seems to be buying what GS is selling (or is less about muppet-mauling).

Just a few months back we noted the FBI's arrest of Tony Mack, the Mayor of New Jersey's salubrious capital Trenton. Today, via AP, the mayor and his brother have been indicted on eight counts of extortion, bribery, and mail and wire fraud. The Mayor has continued in his position - even since the September arrest - but the  federal indictment relates to an alleged scheme to accept $119,000 in bribes in exchange for his influence in the development of a garage on city-owned land. Shocked? not so much; but it seems maybe "Trenton Makes, The Mayor Takes" is more appropriate.

With debt ceilings being summarily dismissed and billions and trillions of dollars being thrown around like confetti, we have become almost entirely de-sensitized to the colossal size of the numbers involved (and to be frank de minimus impact from any 'compromise'. In order to comprehend the size of the US Debt load, Demonocracy created this video visualized in physical $100 bills. And you thought a Jumbo-Jet full of cash was a lot...

The news Deutsche Bank apparently sat on potential super-senior losses of $12 bln through the banking crisis is bound to anger the many bankers who saw their careers crumble or subsumed into bureaucracy. Other banks up the ying-yang with unhedgable risk went bust or were forced into the ignominy of public bailouts. From a proper accounting or risk-management perspective DB should have been bust - but to the unknowing world it wasn't. And that sums up the complexity of the bank world - if management can hide or not recognise risks (and even sack whistleblowers who disagree with them), what's the answer? It's the No-See-Ums that kill institutions. On the basis if you can't see it, then it can't see you... should DB have survived? If Lehman had kept schtumm about its leverage and unquantifiable risk, would it still be with us? Not getting caught is an objective all management have quietly inscribed into their heads. And as far as the UK's fiscal projections... on the basis QE has historically proved to be little less effective than pushing uphill on a length of wet wool, then we might just be staring down the Japanese abyss - no growth as CAPEX will stay subdued on the weak outlook. Lastly, we've been told (forceably) our concerns the Greek buyback could be difficult are completely overstated. We are idiots for even thinking it... apparently.

To the point of causing intestinal convulsions, there has been no shortage of analysis on the elections of 2012. The word “journalist” has today become synonymous with “whore”, simply because success in the field makes whoredom essential. One meme that is being spread widely in the mainstream that I do actually agree with is that the Republican Party is “dying”. During the 2010 mid-term elections, there was a mass resurgence in conservative voting based almost entirely on Tea Party optimism. That changed, though, when Neo-Con elites began weaseling their way into the club, gushing about how they loved freedom. What these vermin do not understand, though, is that it takes more than rhetoric to hold onto Liberty Movement voters. Those of us in the movement who have deeply considered the election aftermath have predominantly concluded that it is WE who have taken the mojo out of the GOP. Let’s take a look at just a few of the mainstream media and GOP leadership arguments and propaganda initiatives and why they are shameless fabrications meant to hide Liberty Movement influence... The GOP is dying and we are thriving.  Whether or not the two are related, I leave for you to decide...

UPDATE: Senate Republicans block vote on President Obama's debt-limit plan

The Pharaoh-like power-grab of omnipotence that Egypt's Morsi recently pulled seems to have set a precedent among newly 'elected' leaders. This morning, as per Bloomberg, we hear that Obama (and his viceroy Harry Reid) plan to demolish the idea of congressional checks on the debt limit. Incredibly ironic timing - given our previous post (in which Rick Santelli explains why this is a potential disaster), but placing that much unlimited money power in the hands of one man seems like a mistake:

• *OBAMA PLAN CALLS FOR END OF LAWMAKER APPROVAL OF DEBT LIMIT
• *REID SAYS SENATE MAY VOTE ON OBAMA DEBT-LIMIT PLAN TODAY

McConnell's response: “Look: the only way we ever cut spending around here is by using the debate over the debt limit to do it, now the President wants to remove that spur to cut altogether.”

Since the 2nd Liberty Act of 1917 birthed the debt ceiling, due to issues financing USA's entry into World War I, CNBC's Rick Santelli notes that there has been many documented 'violations'. However, as Rick so vociferously points out President Obama's comment yesterday on the debt limit and highlights the fact that "to have an unlimited amount of money to call upon is too much power power for one person. It's always in our country been about checks and balances but I think this administration just wants more checks and no balancing of the checkbook." Rick is right, of course, and the current diatribe from Geithner and Obama yesterday on the possible 'removal' of the debt limit beggars belief - and yet has become a negotiating point to be 'traded'. While some argue the premise of the debt limit for a reserve currency nation is nonsense, Santelli sums it perfectly in ten little words: "Debt Ceiling Is Not The Problem. Debt Is The Problem," adding the debt ceiling, as we have pointed out regularly, is an important (perhaps the most important) issue facing us currently (and inseparable from the supposed 'austerity' of the fiscal cliff - lower spending growth not lower spending).