Archive - Dec 2012 - Story

AAPL's phoneix-like rise from the WWJTD lows this morning has been capped at yesterday's closing VWAP. Stocks and Gold are recoupled for the week pushing towards the highs (and high yield credit and stocks have recoupled). While equities are pushing their highs, Treasury yields plumb new lows, EURUSD has given up all the week's gains and more, and Oil is plunging. So, another day, another dislocation as not even Harrry Reid's indignance can move markets today...

Despite Draghi's insistence that 'significant' progress has been made, that the ECB's efforts have not been "killer medicine", that stocks are higher and spreads are lower (implying the ECB "has already done much that is needed"), and how optimistically-biased cherry-picked economic surveys are positive despite weak economic projections; the fact of the matter is that youth unemployment is only getting worse - much worse. Euro-zone youth unemployment is at a record 23.9% but Spain and Italy saw the biggest jumps (to 55.9% and 36.5% respectively). Greece remains the worst at over 56% based on last data, while Germany rests at 8.1%.

Two months ago, there were various prominent pundits who were furiously mocked and ridiculed by those whose job in the media it is to mock and ridicule, for suggesting what most know: that economic data is widely nuanced, massaged, adjusted, goalseeked and outright manipulated by various political interests. That someone would feign outrage by this allegation is laughable at best (and sorry, the "too many people were involved to keep it a secret" excuse is now absolute rubbish following the confirmation of Liborgate, yet another conspiracy theory until it became a conspiracy fact), yet all the "serious" outlets of insight did just that. Now that the election is over, for one reason or another "unnuanced" normalcy is about to strike back with a vengeance, as soon as tomorrow with the official release of November jobs data. And if the just released Gallup unemployment data is any indication, the amount of outright goalseeking by the fine folks at the BLS was nothing short of startling. Because after recording an adjusted unemployment rate of 7.4% in October, the November unemployment rate, based on a random sample of 29,308 adults, soared by a whopping 0.9% in one month to 8.3%, the most since the Great financial crisis itself! And furthermore, at 8.3% the unemployment rate is now the highest since May. Is it time yet for all those sellsiders to admit they were wrong weeks after producing beautiful pitchbooks of how 2013 will be "different this time" and the economy will soar? Or should we wait a few weeks first?

As we have discussed a number of times (most recently here), the infiltration of Goldman Sachs alumni into the highest ranks of political and monetary policy 'running the world' ranks is becoming pandemic. What is perhaps even more surprising is the fact that during the ECB's press conference this morning, the head of the world's 'almost' most powerful entity had to defend himself from such crackpot, tin-foil-hat-wearing, digital-dickweed-esque conspiracy theories that Draghi's affiliation to the Mother Squid is of greater importance than his current professional position. The sadly ironic aspect is that Draghi's membership of the Goldman Sachs-sponsored G-30 warranted more discussion during the press conference than that of Italy's Monti debacle (or Greece's "killer medicine").

As predicted in our overnight summary piece titled, "Sentiment Shaken By Concerns Of Political Circus Returning To Italy" Europe appears set to be gripped by yet another political crisis, this time by the country that most forgot in 2012, with the attention focusing primarily on Spain and Greece. The reason is what some may call Berlusconi's revenge, who after being eliminated by the ECB in November 2011 when Draghi sent Italian bond spreads soaring, and made Berlusconi's departure a condition to returning normalcy in exchange for planting yet another Goldman tentacle in Italy, Mario Monti, has now shaken the credibility of his successor by having his party PDL abstain from a vote of confidence in favor of Monti's growth measures. The result, as Il Giornale reported moments ago, is that the "the government is increasingly hanging by a thread". It continues: 'Now Prime Minister Mario Monti is likely to no longer have the numbers in parliament. The majority creaks." Is this the end of the technocratic quiet in the austerity regimes? And if the people have said Basta to Goldman and its appointees, does this open the door wide for the likes of Berlusconi to retake the power and force Goldman to scramble to regain status quo "normalcy" for another several months just as every sellside firm has bet the ranch on a global renaissance in 2013?

A month ago, just before the market tumbled only to be rescued by a completely idiotic goal seeked narrative on November 16 that Congress and the President were close to a compromise on the Fiscal Cliff, since repeatedly refuted, we presented an update of NYSE margin debt and net investor net worth. The data was disturbing as it showed that just as the market had hit its 2012 peak so far, investors were truly "all in" stocks, and that "Margin Debt as of 9/30 hit $315 billion: a jump of $30 billion from the prior month, and the highest since March 2011, just before the market tanked. And confirming that there is simply no cash on hand to pay for margin calls when they start pouring in after today's massive sell off, is the total Net Worth, which in September was the lowest since April. Because with record complacency, and the Fed guaranteeing no further shocks are possible, who needs to hold cash?" Today we get the October data, and things have just gotten worse, because Margin Debt rose once more, this time to $318 billion, the highest in a year and a half, but more troubling is that Net Free Credit (i.e. real disposable cash to meet margin calls) sank even deeper into the red, at a whopping ($44) billion, the lowest since the summer of 2011. This simply means that like last month, if and when the margin calls start coming in, speculators will have no choice but to commence liquidating levered positions as there is simply not enough cash to fund capital losses. Which probably explains the resilience of the S&P: one or two 1% down days and Congress will get a far greater impetus to get a Fiscal Cliff deal done. Which, paradoxically, is precisely what needs to happen.

S&P 500 futures (ES) are jumping around like a penny-stick biotech firm on FDA-day. VWAP is the cnahor and the algos are had at work as they pull and push the index to help manage the AAPL orders. Simply remarkable moves for the index representative of 500 of the USA's largest stocks...

The composite index has now regained its pre-financial crisis levels of 55.4.  However, more important than the current level is the trend of the data since the peak in 2010.  I have noted the previous peaks of data and while the index is volatile from one month to the next the declining trend of the data should be concerning to those paying attention.  As we have stated in the past "economic change occurs at the margin" so the focus on a single data point can be very misleading. With estimates for Q4 GDP being ratcheted down sharply to roughly 1% from Q3's 2.7% annualized rate - it is very likely that the latest print in the ISM Composite index is likely the peak that we will see for several months. Doing more with less has now been the mantra of businesses since the financial crisis, and despite the $30+ trillion dollars thrown at the economy since that time, there has been little movement by businesses to become more aggressive.

It has been 20 days since the last March 2009-like $522/share 'Generational Low' buying opportunity arrived for AAPL. Well, it would appear that one whole generation suddenly cried out in terror and was suddenly silenced, as AAPL dipped to $518 moments after opening. As the clip below suggests, we can only imagine the crowd of "traders" waiting to scoop up all these generational low prints (and today's volume is epic so far) being sold to them by over 200 hedge funds running for cover... WWJTD? A second bite at the Apple? And is that unlimited cost basis facilitated with "Other people's" or simply monopoly money?

Late last night S&P placed Greece into “Selective Default” again, raising the issues, once again, of the $90 billion in Greek derivatives, the Greek bank bonds guaranteed by the country and now at the ECB, some central banks and some commercial banks where some clause may get triggered, various clauses in repos, inter-bank lending contracts and guarantees by Athens of various corporate entities all potentially seeing triggers. In the meantime, because Americans hate to be left out of anything, we continue to behave like fools. The raising of the tax rate on the wealthy will operate the country for about eight days and it seems like the savants in Washington have forgotten that there are three hundred and forty-eight days left in the year. Secretary Geithner’s ,“We are prepared to go over the fiscal cliff,” has all of the dramatics of some bluff on World Wide Poker. The focus on redistribution of wealth is a secondary consideration when you cannot pay your bills. We propose that unhappy Americans unite, buy the Abaco islands from the Bahamas, they need the money, and begin our own island nation and let the 46.5 million on food stamps fend for themselves. We honestly feel that way some days as the idiocy in Washington D.C. seems to recognize no boundaries.

Once upon a time Diamondback was one of the most prestigious, most desired to work for hedge funds. That is no longer the case, because as Bloomberg reported moments ago, the Stamford, CT-based fund, which as recently as 2010 had nearly $6 billion in AUM, is closing down, due to concerns it could be the next SAC, and following a flurry of redemptions, has no choice but to liquidate. What equities will be dumped wholesale by the fund? Full list of top 30 holdings is presented below.

And so the BLS and DOL are back to "seasonal adjustments." Because in a week in which the Sandy effect was supposed to fade, at least on a seasonally adjusted basis, nothing could spoil the party. And sure enough, the headline number dropped from an upward revised (how else) 395,000 to 370,000, well below the expected 380,000. The real story, however, is how the DOL is doing all it can to smooth the noise, because in the week ended December 1, Not Seasonally Adjusted Initial Claims soared by 139,678 - the highest since January, to a whopping 498,619. Compare this to the SA number of 370,000, and one can see why in the aftermath of Sandy, it is quite clear that between hurricane distortions and seasonal adjustments, the headline number is completely meaningless. Confirming this was the surge in Continuing Claims, which ripped from 2,835,671 to 3,301,200, an increase in continuing claims of 465,529, or nearly half a million, in one week! But at least the pre-election boost of those collecting extended claims is over, with those on EUCs down by 110K in one week, thereby ending the extended Uncle Sam handout for over a hundred thousand Americans, who will now be forced to seek solace in disability benefits.

You know the drill: 45 minutes after the ECB announcement we get the presser. Will Draghi say anything catalytic? Most likely not: the only variable is whether or not Draghi sees a reduction in inflation and growth (despite all the recent irrational euphoria from various sellside desks), leaving the door open for negative deposit rates. Remember: the "bazooka variable" - the OMT - is now solely in Spain's, and out of the ECB's, hands now.

*DRAGHI SAYS ECB CUT GROWTH FORECASTS, SEES `DOWNSIDE RISKS'
*DRAGHI SEES WEAK GROWTH EXTENDING INTO 2013 BEFORE RECOVERY
*DRAGHI SAYS GOVTS MUST REDUCE FISCAL STRUCURAL IMBALANCES
*DRAGHI SAYS FISCAL POSITION IN U.S. MAY DAMP CONFIDENCE LONGER

LOL!?

Any fringe hopes that the ECB may cut its discount rate to negative were just dashed as Goldman, pardon the ECB, decided to keep rates unchanged, largely as expected.