Archive - Dec 2012 - Story

Last night, the NASDAQ announced that Facebook (FB) will replace Infosys (INFY) in the NASDAQ-100 index. This change will become effective next Tuesday, December 11, after market close. This is merely the first swap in what is an annual Index reconstitution tradition for the tech-heavy, IPO-error prone index: next Friday, December 14, the NASDAQ will announce the official full list of new entrants and exit-ants from the index, which will take place on December 21, which usually serves as a technical buying boost for the new members, while those companies kicked out see substantial selling pressure as index funds no longer have to own the names. Below we present an analysis by Deutsche Bank's Bo Huang who lists, in order of conviction the names most likely to benefit (additions), and be punished (removals), from the reconstitution.  The names likely most likely to benefit: Kraft Foods, Regeneron, Libery Media, Analog Devices, Catamaran and Equinix. On the other hand, those holding Netflix, Apollo Group, Warner Chilcott, Green Mountain Coffee, Electronic Arts, Flextronics, or the recent Lazarus, until a month ago left for dead, Research in Motion, may want to quietly sell their holdings. They will likely have a better re-entry point after next Friday's announcement and prompt reallocation.

Is this really the reason why markets are rallying today? (or is it front-running the potential 'cone of silence' from a long-weekend in DC) We suspect neither, but Mike Krieger, having written extensively on the two-party political sham, notes the issue is that both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are at their core the same on the big issues most affect these United States at this time.  This past election should have been a wakeup call to the Republican establishment, but based on John Boehner’s recent actions, they have learned absolutely nothing.  The Republican Party is imploding from within since its leaders don’t actually stand for anything.  Here is how Mr. Boehner treats those within his party that do stand for something.

Presented with no comment...

There are almost as many theories about why obesity has exploded in America and the world since the 1980s as there are researchers compiling data. The rise in Body Mass Index (BMI) appears to correlate with the rise of high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS), a simple carbohydrate. Unfortunatley, obesity and well-being are not just a matter of carbs/no-carbs; the causal chain is just not that simple.

If the beginning of the end started two years ago as we predicted, is this end of the end?

• CITIGROUP PRIVATE BANK SAID TO PUT SAC CAPITAL ON `WATCH' LIST
• CITIGROUP SAID TO ADVISE CLIENTS AGAINST ADDING MONEY TO SAC
• CITIGROUP PRIVATE BANK ALLOCATES CLIENT MONEY TO HEDGE FUNDS

Next up: all other private wealth groups halt capital allocations to SAC? Redemptions of all non-employee funds and liquidations? FBI raids, but only after orderly winddowns? It sure gets interesting...

And without Stevie Cohen running stops 24/7 in ES and every other stock that is still widely traded, what then? Will GETCO run the entire market?

As the world flipped its calendar from November to December - risk-assets decided to shift their funding currency and EURUSD lost its ramp-a-bility... (which also helps to explain the unusual 'strength' in EUR as carry-traders buy back their EUR-based funding and rotate to JPY)

The use of economic pain to expand governmental control of a nation is not a new concept.  It has been a tool successfully used many times in history. The reality that "taxing the wealthy" does not increase revenue or promote economic growth is lost on the 80% of Americans that are economically uninformed and are just struggling to maintain their current standard of living. The path over the "fiscal cliff" is bad for the economy, the average American family and the stock market.  However, for the White House, going over the "cliff" is the next move in this elaborate game of chess which will clear the path towards completing Obama's long term objectives of complete socialization of the American economy.

A weak Spanish bond auction and relatively weak macro data did not help but sentiment  - following an Asia-inspired gap-up opening - was dismal as stocks and bonds sold off all day long. Spanish bond spreads are 38bps wider than their Monday tights and saw their biggest single-day jump in over 10 weeks. Stocks (especially Spain and Italy) fell considerably off those early spike highs but remain mixed on the week. Credit in general caught up to equity's recent move with high beta Subordinated financials leading the way (and IG lagging). Swiss 2Y rates dropped to 3 month lows.

"The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies... That is money that we have borrowed from the Social Security trust fund, borrowed from China and Japan, borrowed from American taxpayers. This rising debt is a hidden domestic enemy, robbing our cities and States of critical investments in infrastructure like bridges, ports, and levees; robbing our families and our children of critical investments in education and health care reform; robbing our seniors of the retirement and health security they have counted on. Every dollar we pay in interest is a dollar that is not going to investment in America’s priorities."

As President Obama addresses a room full of small business 'patriots' we thought his 'confidence' about consumers and housing might have been tempered a little by this chart from Bloomberg Businessweek... We can't wait for the Q&A... Live audio below...

As the Fiscal Cliff discussions get progressively more acrimonious, more people are being reminded that the new and improved $16.4 trillion debt ceiling, which the US will breach in a few days, is just as important, and just as much at an impasse. Which is why the Treasury just opined on the issue, by openly supporting the "McConnell Provision" and in doing so may have made any future Cliff/Ceiling discussions more difficult as the US has effectively invoked the nuclear option, aka a Presidential Veto to effectively elimiante the debt ceiling, something which will antagonize the GOP to such an extent any potential Fiscal Cliff deal may become unfeasible. The market is hardly happy that the already record polarity in Congress is about to get even worse as a result of this hardline stance, and just took another big leg lower.

As an update to our comment last week on the three 'F's of US fiscal-policy-making; it seems we are following the path of last year's debt-ceiling debacle ever more closely. Once again - do we need a 20% drop in US equities to spur the politicians into action? As they try and wedge a square peg of higher taxes into a round peg or spending cuts, we suspect so...

While at first glance we assumed this was Wednesday Humor, but as Noonan tells us all that Ireland is "well on the road to recovery" amid the "total transformation" in Irish bond yields; he added some rather stunning additions to the tax code. To wit, an increase in excise duty by 10c on a pint of beer, 10c on a measure of spirits (shot of liquor), and EUR1 on a 75cl bottle of wine. These changes will take place at midnight tonight Ireland time - we suggest (responsibly) that in order to ensure averaging down in lifetime aggregate spend on alcohol that the Irish start drinking heavily. Forget austerity - the age of boozterity has begun (and with it come the revolution).

Recessionary media dynamics 101: "When in doubt, baffle with BS." As expected, Monday's collapse in the manufacturing ISM would need to be offset somewhere, and that somewhere was today's Services ISM which is where the rest of the world decided to dump the "good news."  Sure enough ISM just reported a headline number of 54.7, better than both the expected 53.5 and last month's 54.2. This was driven by a better than expected Business Activity/Production index which miraculously soared by 5.8 to 61.2, while New Orders increased to 58.1 from 55.3, and not to mention Imports which had the biggest jump in the month of +6.0 to 55.5 - nothing like reducing your GDP as an indicator of optimism. Where things get very ugly however, was the dump in Employment from 54.9 to 50.3, the lowest since July, and the collapse in prices from 65.5 to 57.0. So much for jobs and margins. But at least it wasn't "Sandy's fault." Overall: nothing to write home about especially in light of all the other recently adverse data.

We warned last night of the spike in average trade size yesterday in AAPL's trading - just as we also saw on 9/21 - and the fading VWAP ramps; and today we see AAPL -3% (-6.7% from its highs on Monday) as volume picks up and the renaissance appears to be ending. WWJTD?