Archive - Dec 2012 - Story

November is now over, and hedge funds can count their lucky stars for the baseless November 16th rally, predicated by the now defunct notion that the GOP and Democrats are close to a Fiscal Cliff compromise (it increasingly looks that the real catalyst on the "cliff" will be the absolute debt ceiling hike deadline in March of 2013, meaning the US will go over the cliff, if only for three months). Had the unprecedented levitation in the middle of the month, the bloodbath would have been epic. As such, with a 13K close in the DJIA, and 1.3000 in the EURUSD, the Nov. 30 P&L it was far more palatable and the surge in redemption calls (and the resulting end of unjustified "2 and 20" fees) has been postponed by one more month. So who are the most prominent winners and losers: leading the table are the fund with European exposure, where the recent bipolar mania has Europe as being better, if only until it fully breaks again. The biggest losers? Macro funds, who still don't realize that the in the New Normal, macro "up is down."

Many have wondered if Ron Paul would have run as an independent. Here is his answer: "[I didn't consider running as an independent because] it is absolutely not practical. This would have been a good year to have an alternative and you can't get much of a showing either on the libertarian side or the green side".... the Republican and Democratics "parties are going to linger because they are locked in by law. The laws are biased against us from competing." So how does one change the two-party system? "You go to the campuses. You rally the young people. You stir up a whole generation of people. Ideas do have consequences and that's where the good news is because the campuses are alive and well with these views and they know the system is bankrupt. And there is this illusion that you can spend endlessly and print endlessly and there will always be credit out there. And so far, so good, but credit can end quickly, the dollar can crash quickly and a new system will have to be developed."