Archive - Feb 2012 - Story

Just over a week ago we highlighted the desperate plight of cash-strapped California. With a $3.3bn short-term 'hole', they were looking for cash-management solutions under every rock and hard place they could find. Today we hear that California joins the Obama bank foreclosure settlement enabling $18bn of bank-funded cash (implicitly via Federal Reserve/Government coffers) can flow to the left coast. Los Angeles alone will receive $4bn which while eventually wending its way down to the consumer (to be spent and implicitly spurring further economic activity or perhaps more likely to pay down other debt in this balance sheet recessionary environment), as Bloomberg asks, "Why should a taxpayer in Houston or Wichita bail out irresponsible California homeowners, banks and the state’s public employees’ retirement fund?" To add to California's 'aid', BofA has become the first bank to sign up for the 'Keep your Home' program where Federal dollars are given to banks to encourage them to reduce mortgage balances on struggling (over-levered and perhaps once greedy) California homeowners. Certainly it is a happy coincidence that perhaps a short-term cash crisis could be band-aided in the Golden State by this well-timed joining of California to the settlement.

The Power Elites' time-honored strategy to protect their own wealth and grip on power has three components: one is to pursue a strategy of pervasive, ceaseless propaganda to persuade the productive classes that the system is sound, fair and working for them; the second is to fund diversionary "bread and circuses" for the potentially troublesome lower classes, and the third is to harden the fiefdoms of power and wealth into an aristocracy that is impervious to the protests of debt-serfs and laborers below. In addition to "the system is working for you" social control myth, the wealth/power aristocracy also invokes various fear-based social control myths: external enemies are threatening us all, so ignore your debt-serfdom and powerlessness, etc. In the ideal Power Elite scenario, a theocracy combines faith and State: not only is it illegal to resist the Aristocracy, you will suffer eternal damnation for even thinking about it. Ask yourself this: how much influence do you as a citizen, voter and taxpayer have over the Federal Reserve? If we're honest, we must confess that the Federal Reserve is as remote to us as any branch of the North Korean government: we have zero influence over it, and the same can be said of our elected representatives. This is the definition of an aristocracy, oligarchy (a power structure in which power is held by a small number of people), kleptocracy, etc.

It seems our discussions on sovereign litigation 'arbitrage' and blocking stakes among foreign-law Greek bondholders is gathering some consensus among the smarter sell-side research shops. In a note today, recognizing the differences between Greek international-law bonds, Credit Suisse applies their rigorous game theory perspective to the EUR18bn of foreign-law bond holders and the implications on the PSI negotiations. As we have pointed out, and has been successfully traded in  the last few weeks, they expect foreign-law bonds to trade at a premium to Greek-law government bonds (just as we also noted we see increasingly in Portuguese bond dispersion) not just for blocking stake possibilities but also as better hedge-protected CDS positions. CS points out that if CACs were introduced into Greek law bonds, this blocking stake in foreign-law bonds will create a much higher chance of a hard default credit event and while UK law bonds won't be protected from a hard default they will at least have CDS trigger protection. Finally, the hope of creating a true Prisoner's Dilemma (where standing alone/holding-out singularly is a sub-optimal strategy) fails dismally as each participant is aware that others (blocking stake foreign-law bond holders) will for sure not participate. Adding to this threat is the current low stress environment, set up by the ECB and its LTRO, which could encourage more 'aggressive' behavior by any player in the game creating higher chances of a hard default by Greece as Troika-deal confidence increases the bargaining power for heavier haircuts and thus - fewer willing participants. What a mess!

FX Concepts' John Taylor is out with today's slam dunk de-noisification of all that is irrelevant with the following summary of what is really going on as the world's central banks embark on the latest and hopefully final attempt to reliquify everything. All we can add to Taylor's analysis, especially in light of today's incremental easing in ECB collateral requirements, is that the biggest beneficiary by far of what in a few months will be another multi-trillion balance sheet expansion, is and continues to be hard, non-dilutable, i.e., real, money. Because as fiat currency loses all relevance in a world in which it is printed on a daily basis by the central banks, whether or not we end up with a Weimar scenario, the cash thrown out by the even profitable companies will be increasingly more meaningless. Yet the take home message is that banks will never, ever stop diluting existing money. They simply can't as the past few months have so vividly demonstrated.

While today's foreclosure settlement deal is by some accounts expected to help the housing market, as the foreclosure pipeline is once again unclogged, it is unclear what this will actually do for price discovery and clearing levels when one considers the already untenable shadow housing inventory, which can be summarized simply as follows - excess supply. It is this overhang that has to clear before there is any hope for incremental demand interest. And since mortgage rates are already at record low levels, and only an MBS QE could do much to stimulate even lower rates (which has its own set of adverse consequences), it is now obvious that from a purely psychological standpoint as long as people expect rates to decline in the future, they will not commit to a new home loan today. What makes it even worse is that the excess inventory has to be literally burned to the ground for regular market clearing to resume. Unfortunately, as the following chart from JPM shows very vividly, the burning will have a long way to go: the most recent shadow housing inventory is now at an all time high. Think today's action will do anything to help the housing market? Think again - if anything it will simply see the number of foreclosed properties explode. Rather, what it will do, is finally redirect discretionary spending from all the squatters who have lived mortgage free in their houses for years back into mandatory spending such as rent and mortgage bills. For those unclear, recall this post quantifying the benefit of the squatter economy (i.e., non paid rental/mortgage payments going into discretionary spending) - kiss that $50 billion inflow into GDP goodbye. Paradoxically, by trying to fix housing, Obama may have just popped the consumer discretionary bubble, of which the biggest beneficiary is that one certain fruit-shaped company...

Earlier, we heard Dick Bove's take on the fraudclosure settlement. Now it's time for the TOTUS' spin.

As we predicted, Germany is a no go. The AP reports:

• German FinMin: Greek deal on spending cuts appears to not yet fulfill bailout conditions

And now ball is back in the Greek court where politicians are starting to drop like flies on the "merely insufficient" deal.

In a moment of surprising clarity this morning (or perhaps driven by simple ulterior motives as his favorite bank may well be unprepared to cover even this moderate cash payment from existing reserves, as we warned back in January) perpetual bank optimist Dick Bove had some harsh words for the now finalized bank settlement, which he called the "mortgage deal from hell" - "Those people lucky or smart enough to stop making payments on their homes may get their loan balances reduced. Other beneficiaries of the agreement may be homeowners who have seen the value of their houses drop below the size of their mortgages. They get a freebie that other homeowners who have paid their mortgages down will not get....Homeowners who made large down payments on their homes or made the terrible mistake to pay down the principal on their mortgages do not qualify. Homeowners who made minimal or no down payments will get the windfall benefit of a lower principal repayment or a cash payment." And the true bottom line: "There is no sanctity of contracts in the United States. Only fools meet their financial commitments. The non-payers are the truly enlightened." And that is the summary of modern US society in a nutshell, and explains why despite all the deleveraging, inflation still remains a potent threat as the bulk of a household's mandatory continues to be merely discretionary, with everyone else footing the bill. Finally, as Rick Santelli pointed out subsequently, the banks are paying for this settlement using cash proceeds from previous bank bailouts which have not yet been paid out. So to be even more blunt than Dick and Rick -the US taxpayers bailed out the banks, which are now using  the balance of said proceeds to pay a settlement which amounts to the tune of $2,000 per every person foreclosed on in the past 3 years, in order to assure their vote for Obama, while in the process trampling contract law, as no longer will anyone in America honor anything printed and signed.

This is the first of many such political moves, and is hardly in anticipation of public adulation once tomorrow's two day strike beings , which as labor unions have noted will be to protest the debt deal that is the "tombstone of Greek society." For now rotations at the top are voluntary. That will soon change. From Bloomberg: "Greek Deputy Labor and Social Security Minister Yiannis Koutsoukos resigned his cabinet position to protest austerity measures agreed to by Greek political leaders, according to a statement sent from the Pasok lawmaker’s Athens-based office today." As always, the less people have to lose (and minimum wages just got cut that much more, not to mention non-existent pensions), the less they have to fear from standing up to the myth of the insolvent welfare state.

After an almost incessant rally off Thanksgiving Day lows, European financials are seeing a quite notable divergence in their performance over the last two days. Dispersion has risen across all of credit with financial credit spreads widening significantly as both broad stocks and specifically the European financial stocks trade sideways to higher. This is the most significant divergence between credit and equity for the financials in Europe since that rally began and was then extended via LTRO hopes. Perhaps the reality of implicit LTRO subordination as increasing amounts of collateral (backing the entire capital structure of the banks) is being priced into the much more sensitive and quick to react credit markets as stocks just can't shake the momentum extravaganza.

As rumors of the imminent iPad3 (and FoxConn hacking) spread across the web and a general sense of cult-like euphoria washes away the reality of a considerably weaker earnings picture (and outlook) than even downgraded expectations had prepared for, we present two charts, via JPMorgan, of just how grossly distorted the picture of US economic health (implicitly via US corporate earnings) has become, thanks to Apple. While ignoring Apple as a provider of 'wealth' is akin to Monty Python's "What Have The Romans Ever Done For Us?" comment, we worry that so much 'expectations' burden should fall on the shoulders of a company that relies on constant 'successful' innovation and constant low cost wages (no growth) to merely maintain current growth and earnings while facing constant and massive competitive threats from every side of its business (especially with austerity/recession/credit-constrained Europe as the largest sequential growth driver in the last surprising quarter). While 'Let Them Eat PSI' is the clear message for the Greeks, it would appear the US investor is truly satisfied by its extra large helping of iPad meals, even as 'explicit' job creation in the US via this main driver of US earnings remains de minimus (recognizing of course the peripheral impact of developers into this infrastructure that however do not amount to too much in terms of earnings or GDP as is painfully obvious from these charts). As goes AAPL, so goes the US?

Update - It gets even better: Greek Deal Lacks Detailed Paperwork For Decision - DJ. What, 50 pages of promises is not enough.

The Greeks "pledge" that they will grow their economy in 2013? May as well pledge unicorn cab cabs for all Germans to their southern province in perpetuity. Yet somehow this is sufficient to squeeze the EURUSD higher as a "deal is done." Perhaps, but not so fast. As we speculated, the Troika not only does not want to fall for the same Greek BS any more, but frankly wants it out (and Germany votes on the bailout package tomorrow) - but has to do it diplomatically. So here it comes:

• IMF SAYS IT'S NOT FORCING AUSTERITY ON GREECE AS TALKS CONTINUE - BBG
• RICE SAYS IMF "WELL AWARE HOW DIFFICULT' IT IS FOR GREECE - BBG
• IMF'S RICE SAYS IMF MINDFUL OF `HARDSHIPS' IN GREEK PROGRAM - BBG
• RICE DECLINES TO SAY WHAT IMF SHARE OF NEXT GREEK LOAN WILL BE - BBG

But the most ominous of all:

• IMF SAYS 'PRIOR ACTIONS' LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED BEFORE FUND OK OF NEW GREEK LOAN PROGRAM - DOW JONES

By the way, dear US taxpayer, the IMF - that's you.

As reported yesterday, the cost of terminal abrogation of contractual rights in the US is, drumroll, $26 billion. Bloomberg notes:

• $26 BILLION FORECLOSURE SETTLEMENT ANNOUNCED IN WASHINGTON
• FORECLOSURE ACCORD RESOLVES 16-MONTH ROBO-SIGNING INVESTIGATION
• FORECLOSURE ACCORD IS SUBJECT TO APPROVAL BY FEDERAL JUDGE
• FORECLOSURE DEAL PRESERVES U.S., STATE RIGHTS TO OTHER CLAIMS
• FORECLOSURE ACCORD COULD CLIMB TO $40 BLN IF 14 SERVICERS JOIN

And a whole lot of corner offices for America's Attorneys General. As for what the market thinks of this "severe" settlement: BAC +1.2%, WFC +0.6%, JPM +0.4%, C -0.1%. For those who don't understand what just happened, US banks just funded Obama's re-election campaign to the tune of $26-$40 billion.

A brief, three sentence press release which talks about issues "left open for further elabortaion and discussion" but which certainly notes that the agreement's so called passage opens up the way for €130 billion in fuirther financing. It remains to be seen what the Troika's response to this PR is. We already know how the Greek people feel.