Archive - Mar 2012 - Story

Besides gold and silver, there is nothing that scares Central Planners (Bankers) more that oil.  In their delusional world where they play god with our futures, they think they can make the sheeple do whatever they want by adjusting the settings on a printing press and can thus determine the fate of the global economy and humanity itself.  What they hate more than anything else is when all of their money printing causes things like oil to rise because it exposes them for the charlatans that they are.  This is why Obama is constantly attacking speculators and oil companies.  It is all an attempt to scapegoat someone else for the financial nightmare that is hitting everyone’s wallet.  This is why they floated the absurd idea of releasing more oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and then denied it once the market failed to react vigorously enough to the rumor.  This is also why Obama surely has called the Saudis up repeatedly as of later to remind them that they might see regime change unless they ramp up oil production to help his reelection.   This brings us to one of the most important aspects of the entire global economy at the moment.  Saudi oil production is hitting record highs at the moment.  In fact if you look at the chart below you will see that the Saudis have never consistently pumped more oil than they are right now.     

And the numbers are out:

• RESEARCH IN MOTION 4Q REV. $4.19B, EST. $4.51B
• RESEARCH IN MOTION 4Q ADJ. EPS 80C, EST. 81C

No more guidance:

• RIMM WONT' GIVE QUANTIVE VIEWS DUE TO LONG TERM FOCUS

But here is what the market will focus on:

• RESEARCH IN MOTION REVIEWING STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES

UPDATE: FX followed the same path of USD selling post EUR close but Treasuries did not and rallied to their best levels of the week.

In case you overslept yesterday and missed the U-turn shenanigans, today was almost perfectly the same. Equity, credit, and volatility markets all weakened notably into the open, kept sliding aggressively into the European close and then equities and vol (and not credit) turned on a dime and accelerated all the way back. The other similarity was the high volume dump, low volume pump and then considerably high average trade size around 1400 (in ES) into the close.

One would think workers commit suicide out of enjoyment at their labor conditions. One would be wrong. From Bloomberg:

FOXCONN AUDITOR FINDS ‘SERIOUS’ VIOLATIONS OF CHINA LABOR LAWS
FOXCONN AUDITOR FINDS CASES OF EMPLOYEES WORKING TOO MANY HOURS
FOXCONN PLEDGES TO CUT WORKING HOURS, GIVE EMPLOYEES OVERSIGHT

So China does have labor laws... In other news, more margin contraction for companies reliant on Foxconn slave labor... pardon... delightful work conditions.

In an essay by Pimco's Tony Crescenzi, using the old and worn out title "To QE or Not to QE", which asks just that question, one of the lines of analysis focuses on the traditional conventional wisdom relationship between the jobless rate and initial claims for unemployment insurance. Tony says that this correlation leads him to believe that the unemployment rate is lower than where it official stands because, "Progress has been made, for example, on the employment front, with the six-month moving average for private payroll gains increasing to 214,000 per month in the six months ended in February 2012 from 160,000 per month in the 12 months prior. Importantly, weekly filings for initial jobless claims have fallen to a four-year low, fully 100k below year-ago levels and in territory consistent with a further decline in the unemployment rate (see Figure 1)." So far so good, and indeed if one very simplistically tracks merely the unemployment rate to jobless claims, the picture does indeed seem rosier than it currently is. The problem however, is that as always happens in this case, initial claims reflect only a discrete component of the true unemployment situation in the New Normal, which more than anything is characterized by one specific feature: the avalanche like implosion of the labor force, and the departure of millions of people, almost monthly from the labor pool, noted so very often on these pages, and recently forcing even Goldman and JP Morgan to ask whether Okun's law is not in fact broken precisely because of this. As such there is one other correlation that in our humble opinion should be tracked far more closely when trying to anticipate the unemployment rate: that of the unemployment rate but not just to initial claims, but rather to initial and continuing claims, as well as extended benefits and EUCs, which provide a far better picture of those who are truly falling out of the labor pool. And as the chart below shows, when using that far more accurate New Normal correlation, the picture is decided worse. In fact, instead of a sub-7% implied unemployment rate, the true implied unemployment rate is just over 12.5.

We discussed earlier about the Fed's ZIRP policy and the transmission mechanism through which its free-money ends up in the real-economy (or not as the case in point). Brevan Howard agrees that the outlook for the US is not plain-sailing and that US growth does indeed face cross-currents, with the labor market improving at a steady pace while aggregate demand slows. While the firm remains more stoic, seeing a generally favorable macro backdrop, they note three uncertainties and one certainty that keeps them up at night. The pace of the drop in unemployment against only trend growth leaves its sustainability uncertain; the potentially temporary easing of the European financial crisis seems increasingly uncertain; and the growing tensions in the Middle East and the uncertainty over gas prices derailing the fragile economy. However, it is the one certainty that worries us most (and them, it seems), and that is the enormous fiscal drag the US faces in 2013 which unchecked could reduce real GDP growth by more than 3 percentage points. Even if the President and the new Congress cut this by half it would still be a noticeable drag on growth.

This is truly Orwellian: the latest and greatest Executive Branch/Federal Reserve power grab is labeled "consumer protection." I am indebted to correspondent Jim S. who seems to be one of the few Americans to have actually sorted through this monstronsity and gleaned its true nature: an unprecedented extension of Executive (i.e. Imperial Presidency) and Federal Reserve power. Let's start by recalling that the Federal Reserve is a consortium of private banks. Calling a private consortium of banks the "Federal Reserve" is the original Orwellian misdirection, for there is nothing "Federal" about the Federal Reserve. It is not a government agency. Now guess who will fund and control this vast new bureaucracy of "consumer protection"? Yes, the private consortium known as the Federal Reserve. "The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) will be an independent unit located inside and funded by the United States Federal Reserve. It will write and enforce bank rules, conduct bank examinations, monitor and report on markets, as well as collect and track consumer complaints." Since managing the money supply and interest rates is the ultimate "consumer protection," we can ask how well the Fed managed those tasks in the past 15 years: alas, their management has been catastrophic for the nation and the middle class, which has been gutted by their policies of serial bubble blowing, leveraged speculation and bank predation.

Presented with little comment except to note the incredible 29 year-long projection of the mid-80s trend-line (on the log-scale chart of AAPL share price) perhaps offers some resistance and the corrective 'echoes' that have occurred at these inflections before.

Unlike yesterday's 5 year bond auction, which priced at the lowest Bid To Cover since August, there were no major surprises during the just concluded issuance of $29 billion in 7 Year bonds. The closing high yield was 1.59%, just as the When Issued predicted, which is the highest rate since October. The internals were more or less inline - Indirect takedown of 42.79% was the highest since August's 51.72%, Directs decline modestly from February's soaring 19.27%, to just 13.40%, which still was quite a bit higher than the TTM average 12.23%. Dealers were left with 43.81% of the auction, about 3% below their average. And while the market was sensing a weak auction ahead of the pricing, the subsequent favorable response in the Treasury complex has sent the entire curve tighter again, and money flowing out of stocks, which had hit an intraday high just before the auction completion. In other news, total US debt is now over $15.6 trillion.

Today at 12:45pm will be the 4th and final lecture given by the CTRL+P spinmaster himself to young and easily impressionable GW students. The propaganda tour will conclude as Ben shares his views on the "The Aftermath of the Crisis" where we will most certainly learn that the primary consequence is a parabolically rising global balance sheet, where $7 trillion in excess liquidity has been dumped in the world in the past 5 years by the big 5 central banks. That and the fact that virtually all energy commodities are trading at or near all time records. We will likely also learn that while it is speculators' fault that gas is at an all time high for this time of year, it is not speculators fault that the S&P is at a 4 year high. In fact, we will learn a whole lotta stuff that those who took the red pill some time ago, may have forgotten. Watch it live below.

European equity prices fell for the third day in a row and pulled back near six week lows, breaking below the 50DMA for the first time since it crossed above on 1/16. Today's drop was the largest in three weeks as Italian banks were halted, plunging their most in over three months and back at levels not seen since mid January. Most Italian banks are down 9-11% in March but BMPS is down over 24% as Italian sovereign yields start to come unhinged again (ironically a day after Monti announced the crisis was over). 10Y BTPs broke back below last Friday's lows (the moment the ECB stepped in last time to save the day) up over 5.2% yield - catching up to CDS levels (and ITA spreads are +23bps on the week). Spain is also weak (+15bps on the week) and heading for 3 month highs in its yields. Since the CDS roll (March 20th), the sell-off has accelerated with equity and credit markets tracking lower together (as opposed to the last few months where credit underperforms and then snaps back higher). We discussed the LTRO Stigma trade earlier and that has continued sliding notably wider today as LTRO-encumbered banks hugely underperform. We suspect hedges (sovereign credit, financial credit, and equity) placed early in the year for the 3/20 Greece event (among other things) have run off and now managers are reducing risk in real terms (selling) as opposed to replacing hedges which is why the uber-supported markets of Italy and Spain are losing the battle now. Lastly, Europe's VIX is its richest relative to US VIX since the rally began, jumping dramatically today.

When it comes to open questions and general issues surrounding the gold market, The Thunderroad Report's Paul Mylchreest is among the leading contrarian voices who always injects a dose of reality in an otherwise nebulous topic, and one which has been a great disappointment for central bankers over the past century, because as Chris Martenson explained yesterday, "Gold is an objective measure of the degree to which fiat money is being managed well or managed poorly" and never has fiat money been managed as badly as over the past 4 years. In his latest report, Mylchreest focuses on a topic that is near and dear to many precious metal fans: manipulation, and specifically capturing it in practice. In an extended overview of what he dubs various "repeating algorithmic trading programmes" Mylchreest is confident he has enough evidence to demonstrate a recurring pattern of blatant gold manipulation. And he very well may: at the end of the day price merely express the relative confidence of buyers versus sellers, but at the end of the day, we once again go back to the one question we keep on repeating, and one which Martenson also picked up on: if gold is manipulated, so what? Not only so what, but thank you! Because what keeping the price artificially lower does is provides a cheap entry point to pick up physical. As a reminder, those who buy gold, at least so they claim, are not doing it to flip it higher in some fiat equivalent, unless they are merely speculators of course, and instead preparing for the period that follows the collapse of paper money, in which only sound currency, such as gold and silver, will be relevant. In this context, we can only say - bring on the manipulation, in fact send gold to zero if possible please. Frankly neither we, nor anyone else, should be that much concerned with day to day gyration of the value of gold. The long-term trajectory is well-known, however the only question is- does one buy gold to sell it (in dollars, euros, rial, or dong), or to have a true backstop to a failing currency when point T+1 finally comes?

Looking at the parabolic rise in AAPL shares in the past 3 months one would imagine that the company's product line up, so well telegraphed over the past several years, has changed, or at least has found a way to cure cancer, while expanding margins, and also providing loans to cash-strapped US consumers to buy its products exclusively. Truth is nothing substantial has changed - we have merely seen a ramp as every hedge fund and asset manager jumps on the Apple bandwagon (we fully expect at least 250 funds to hold Apple as of March 31: at least 216 were in the stock as of December 31 and then even Dan Loeb jumped in after) which is fun and games on the way up, but pain and tears when the bubble finally does pop. Many have attempted to warn the public about the latest manic phase of Apple expansion, but few have succeeded - such as the the reality of bubbles: they pop when you least expect them. Yet giving it the old college try, here is Obermeyer Asset Management's John Goltermann with an extended commonsensical approach to his perspective on the company with two main growth products, and why unlike everyone else, he is not buying the iKool-Aid.