Archive - Jun 18, 2012 - Story

In spite of the fact that 85% of Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone, I was reasonably confident that Greeks would support Syriza to a first-place finish, and elect a new government willing to play chicken with the Germans. However Greeks — predominantly the elderly — rejected change (and possible imminent Drachmatization) in favour of the fundamentally broken status quo. But although Syriza finished second, the anti-bailout parties still commanded a majority of the votes.  And New Democracy may still face a lot of trouble building a coalition to try to keep Greece in the bailout, and in the Euro . There has long been a rumour that Tsipras wanted to lose, so as to (rightly) blame the coming crush on the status quo parties. What fewer of us counted on was that the status quo parties wouldn’t want to win the election either. The pro-bailout socialists Pasok have thrown a monkey wrench into coalition-building by claiming they won’t take part in any coalition that doesn’t also include Syriza. This seems rational; when the tsunami hits, all parties in government will surely take a lot of long-term political damage. Pasok have already been marginalised by the younger and fierier Syriza, and Pasok presiding over an economic collapse (for that is undoubtedly what Greece now faces) would surely have driven Pasok into an abyss. The economy is such a poisoned chalice that parties seem willing to fight to keep themselves out of power.

Treasury yields disconnected (lower) late last week from the ebullience of stocks and while EURUSD managed to spike on the Greek hope (in a perfect reflection of last week's Spanish bailout market reaction), it is now also disconnecting (lower) from equity exuberance in the US (having totally round-tripped from its opening spike lows on the 1st exit polls last night). European stocks are ending near their lows, credit markets notably underperforming (in another almost perfect echo of last week's early market reaction), and while Spanish sovereign bonds are performing the worst, the rest of Europe is also pulling wider in spread and higher in yield. Swiss 2Y rates are down 3bps more at 34bps (and 5Y rates are down 2bps to -3bps - lowest ever on record!). Italian and Spanish stock indices are down over 3% led by financials (which leaves them both lower from pre-Spanish bailout), with only the Swiss and German indices managing modest gains on the day.

Any hopes that Germany may bend and allow Greece a little leeway in its bailout negotiations, buying at least a little goodwill with its people have just been dashed. Not only that, but readers may recall last week's Die Zeit article that a third Greek bailout may be in the workd. Well, forget it. From Reuters:

• GERMANY'S MERKEL SAYS CANNOT ACCEPT ANY LOOSENING OF AGREED REFORM PLEDGES IN GREECE AFTER ELECTION
• MERKEL SAYS DOES NOT SEE ANY REASON TO SPEAK ABOUT A NEW AID PACKAGE FOR GREECE ON TOP OF THE TWO ALREADY AGREED
• GERMANY'S MERKEL EXPECTS QUICK FORMATION OF NEW AND STABLE GOVERNMENT IN GREECE

Good luck with that, and good luck to everyone whose entire investing strategy is based on the assumption that Germany will blink when it comes to Greece.

With the majority of young (and middle-aged for that matter) voters in Greece moving away from the mainstream parties as they become disillusioned about their futures, today brings together two sides of the potential reaction (one of hope and one of despair). In an 80-second clip, we hear the truth that "leaving the country is a real prospect for a lot of young people unfortunately right now" as they are left with the difficult choice of whether to "Leave Greece or stay here and try to live on EUR300-400 per month". Perhaps it is the comment that "Austerity is not the solution, Austerity is the problem" that best summarizes their feelings and perhaps leads to the other 'extreme' side of the Greek youth reaction. As neo-Nazi party, Golden Dawn, celebrated their consolidating election performance yesterday with another attack on an immigrant. A Pakistan national was stabbed last night at Attiki train station. A video, taken from a mobile phone, shows a number of youths, confirmed by eye witnesses as Golden Dawn supporters, kicking someone on the floor. As the video ends, two of the youths can clearly be heard talking, with one asking the other if he used his knife, with the assailant confirming this by saying "it went all the way in". Whether it is the cuts of budgets via austerity or the cuts of the Golden Dawn supporters' attacks, it is clear that Greece is on a knife's edge and this election merely delays the inevitable exit (or further raises the potential - as we have been concerned about for over a year - of real civil unrest and chaos ensuing).

Following the nationalization of YPF several months ago, Argentina's recent anti-private industry overtures largely fell off the map. Until the last few days, when bondholders of Spanish gambling company Company have seen their holdings seemingly disappear in a big Greece vortex (modern parlance for infinite drain of wealth): the reason - bonds plunged on speculation the Argentina gaming industry may be next to go under sovereign control. From Bloomberg: "Bonds from Codere, the Spanish gambling company that depends on Argentina for more than half its earnings, are the world’s worst-performing euro-denominated notes on speculation President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner may seize the South American country’s gaming industry. Yields on the company’s 660 million euros of bonds due 2015 climbed 496 basis points last week to 18.97 percent. The performance was the worst among more than 2,000 securities tracked by BAML’s Euro High Yield and EMU Corporate indexes." The problem: should already highly leveraged Codere's Argentina operations be indeed nationalized, the bond will almost likely be Corzined, with recoveries which we expect will be comparable to those of Sino Forest.

Whether its performance-missing anxiety or premature exuberance, UBS Art Cashin notes (as we did on Friday) the disconnect between Bonds' less sanguine appearance and equity's which "seemed determined to take a victory lap even before the polls opened – forget about closed." As Cashin notes, equities were also helped by the quarterly expiration as well as the S&P reweighting which seemed to keep a bid under stocks throughout the day. As the week will be focused on attempts to form a Greek government (in a relatively light macro data week), the avuncular Art summarizes perfectly the situation as "Greek elections may just delay and not decide" as markets appear to be sensing the stalemate and yielding initial gains.

From Deutsche Bank, below is a list of key events to watch over the next several weeks – events that could have bearing on how the euro sovereign debt crisis evolves. Of particular note: in the next 6 weeks there are 18 or so days on which Spain, Italy or, yes, Greece will be issuing debt. Have that espresso machine ready.

One European think tank which has been spot on in its skepticism over the past two years, is OpenEurope. Below they share their views on the next steps for Greece.

Having been the first, back in January, to propose positioning to gain from (or to protect client funds from - for bond managers) the implied subordination (or cram-downs) that the ECB's, or any other 3-letter acronym's, unintended consequences cause, as they decide to bailout the next European nation - via positioning in non-local-law bonds in all PIIGS nations (or 'swapping' local-law for non-local-law), our most recent Spanish-specific example has performed exceedingly well. Last Tuesday, we urged fixed income managers (for fear of fiduciary duty recrimination) to swap to the non-local law Spanish bonds and traders to arbitrage the litigation risk between local- and non-local-law bonds. In that time, the difference in price between the two bonds has dropped dramatically as the local-law bonds have dropped almost 8% in price, while non-local-law are practically unchanged. On a 50% margin basis, the trade is up around 80% in real returns in the past week (with the basis shifting from around EUR10 to EUR5.8).

It is the Great Game. They try to lure you into their various traps; I try to keep you out. They offer headlines from countless sources and I try to tell you what things really mean. They make use of a giant propaganda machine and I chant alone in the wilderness. They make up stories and present them as accurate data and I try to give you the facts. They want your money and I want you to “Preserve your Capital.” They are as diabolical in their pursuits as Professor Moriarty was in his. They are the political masterminds and I am a sort of Sherlock Holmes trying to analyze and conclude one case after the other. You may listen or you may not but I pay for my own supper while others ask for their compensation first. It is their Game, my Game; it is the Great Game.

With few (if any) natural buyers of Spanish debt (especially given the lack of CDS-cash basis now), Spanish bonds continue to crumble lower in price and higher in yield/spread. For the first time ever, 10Y Spanish bond yields have passed 575bps over Bunds - currently trading at 7.15% yield. Since the post-banking-bailout open, Spanish bond spreads have soared a remarkable 114bps and whether this is seen as the fulcrum security or Italian bonds (which are also deteriorating rapidly this morning), it would appear that just as Spiegel reports today from the G-20, via a senior EU official: "If Germany Doesn't Make A Move, Europe Is Dead".

The Spanish precedent is indeed spreading, and as noted here previously a week ago, the Irish demand to get equitable treatment may be about to be granted:

• TROIKA CONSIDERS CHANGING IRISH BAILOUT TERMS, RTE SAYS

However:

• BROADCASTER RTE DOESN'T CITE SOURCES FOR BAILOUT REPORT

So most likely just a trial balloon to see the European response. But why not? What is the downside: Europe blinked and now it is up to the peripherals to demand the same. Next up: Portugal, Greece (again), and again... Spain. And so on, until the socialist utopia finally does run out of other people's money.

Relief in the markets, after the worst case scenario from the Greek elections was averted, proved to be decidedly short-lived. Although the pro-bailout New Democracy party came in first with 129 seats (with an additional 50 seat bonus) the markets still await confirmation of an actual working coalition given a caretaker government has been in place now for approximately two months. A degree of uncertainty in regards to the demands the new coalition will place on negotiating the country's bailout terms has resulted in many investors being unwilling to get their toes wet just yet. Away from the election fever, rising Spanish yields continue to spook the market with the 10yr yield breaching the 7% level, prompting aggressive re-widening of the 10yr government bond yield spreads. The move comes at a crucial time for Spain as they look to come to market tomorrow in 12 and 18 month bills followed by three shorter dated bonds to be tapped this Thursday. Meanwhile, the FX markets have reflected the shift in sentiment with EUR/USD well off its overnight highs and the USD index firmly supported by the prevailing flight to quality bid. However, the biggest currency move of the day came in the early hours after the rupee (INR) weakened substantially following the RBI's decision to leave rates on hold, this coupled with Fitch changing the country's outlook to negative from stable has kept the currency under pressure throughout the day.

Gold took a tumble for the first time in 7 sessions in Asia as Antonis Samaras, leader of the Greece's New Democracy Party (pro-bailout) was victorious.  Today, Samaras plans to form a coalition with other parties backing the bailout – meaning that Greece’s future in the euro is secure – for now.  Gold’s dip in Asia was thought to be due to profit taking and increased risk appetite after the Greek election. However, this increase in risk appetite has been quite short lived with Spanish and Italian 10 year bonds again coming under pressure resulting in record Spanish yields over 7.13% and Italian 10 year over 6% again. Initial gains in equity markets have subsided and the lessening of risk appetite is seeing gold supported. Greece’s exit from the Eurozone is no longer a short term risk however it remains a real risk as does the risk of financial contagion in the Eurozone due to insolvent banks in Spain, Italy and France.