Archive - Jun 18, 2012 - Story

• Greek radical leftist SYRIZA leader Tsipras says will not join coalition government (as expected)
• Egypt Islamists claim presidency as army tightens grip (Reuters)
• French Socialists vow reforms after big poll win (Reuters)
• Greeks Back European Bailout (WSJ)
• France, Socialists Win a Solid Majority (WSJ)
• Denmark Warns over Pressure on Krone (FT)
• Obama to press Putin on Syria at G20 amid skepticism (Reuters)... Putin to smile
• China Home Prices Fall in Record No. of Cities (Bloomberg)
• Europe Gets Emerging Market Crisis Ultimatum As G-20 Meet (Bloomberg)
• Wolfgang Münchau – What Happens if Angela Merkel Does Get Her Way (FT)

With all the europhoria over Greece, some may have forgotten Spain. It is time to remind them that the real "fulcrum country" of Europe has now shifted a few thousand kilometers to the West, where as also reported on Friday the pain will come primarily from more home price declines (up to another 25% lower from here), and loan loss recognitions. How much? As Market News reports, the number may be as large as €150 billion. Of course, if that full number flows through the insolvent banking sector's bottom line, and forces a comparable FROB capital infusion via any of the bailout channels, this is €50 billion more in bond subordination (because good luck raising the capital via equity) than even the worst case Spanish bailout scenario had anticipated. It also explains why as of this morning, Spanish bonds traded at all time record lows. Because, sadly, nothing continues to be fixed in Greece, Spain, or anywhere else in Europe.

While the market is finally figuring out what was obvious about 12 hours ago, that even if, and that is a big IF because Pasok has made it clear it will not join ND outright, there is some coalition government formed it will most likely last all of a few weeks before the whole charade has to be repeated once more as the entire plan is to keep Greece without a government as its last assets are plundered via the Greek "rescue vehicle", events in Greece are once again going through their preset moves. Below, courtesy of Athens News is what is happening in the Greek capital today. Needless to say, if the headline comes that Samaras is unable to form a government, watch out below.

Below is a market recap where we find that, yes, as we expected yesterday, the half life of yesterday's Greek euphoria is shorter than even that of the Spanish bailout.

• S&P500 Futures down
• EURUSD down 0.1%
  
• Spanish 10Yr yield up 24bps to 7.12%
• Italian 10Yr yield up 12bps to 6.05%

Hopefully this is not a surprise to Zero Hedge readers, who were warned on Friday, that courtesy of the idiotic desperation press leak, we shifted to a risk/reward momentum to a Tsipras victory being the only positive Risk On catalyst as it would activate a global central bank intervention. Looks like that is now off the table.

So... now what?