Archive - Jun 2012 - Story

While it will come as no surprise to ZeroHedge readers (as we discussed why LTRO3 is not coming here and here), it would appear that the ability to turn worthless assets into useful liquidity via a raft of collateralized lending operations with the ECB is at an end. As Fitch's, MD of financial institutions Bridget Gandy just confirmed: "Some of the European banks are becoming short on collateral to pledge with the ECB, unless they can delever and sell some of their assets, which is difficult." Of course this means the banks that need the facilities the most are now in dire need to sell assets and delever further exaggerating the vicious circle in Europe's symbiotic banking-sovereign relationship. Without postable collateral, there can be no more help from the ECB to the banks and thus any further banking system help will further subordinate the sovereign (hence our call to swap into non-local law bonds) since it will necessarily need to be funneled through them (a la Spain). Once more the ball ends up in Bernanke's lap.

Presenting JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon's prepared remarks for tomorrow's debacle: The truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the totally unvarnished version of the truth that will fulfill Jamie Dimon's obligations to sit through a few hours of snide remarks, condescension, and bating. It does seem however that our initial perspective on this being a systemic risk hedge (i.e. a 'delta-hedged' senior tranche position as opposed to some easily managed and understood pairs trade) that rapidly grew out of control due to risk control inadequacies, is absolutely correct - though we suspect that is as close to the real truth anyone will ever get.

We are just about 16 hours away from Jamie Dimon's sworn testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, which even has the theatrical name: "A Breakdown in Risk Management: What Went Wrong at JPMorgan Chase?" Will anyone learn anything? Of course not: Jamie Dimon has been well-schooled in not disclosing critical trading information, and will certainly use the "proprietary position" and "more shareholder losses" excuse for any directed question asking how big the JPM CIO loss has become. Because while the hearing could have been productive, if indeed its purpose was to seek to prevent future massive losses of scale such as the suffered by the JPM prop trading unit and its hundreds of billions in CDS notional position, the last thing anyone will care about tomorrow is market efficiency and actual regulation. First and foremost: grandstanding and posturing, in the case of the politicians, and not disclosing anything, without saying too many "I don't recall"s in the case of Dimon. Which is why we have little hope to get anything out of tomorrow's formulaic 2 hours of largely meaningless droning. That said, considering we have already covered the topic of the JPM loss from a mechanistic standpoint more than any other media outlet, there is one more chart we would like to share with readers.

"We live in interesting times" is the understated introduction to one of Charles Biderman (of TrimTabs) more concerning and stunned rants. With the value of all stocks still around double the 2009 lows yet today's incomes are barely growing, and realistically - with all the headwinds we face - there is no hope for rapid growth in wages & salaries anytime soon, the avuncular analyst feels the need to warn all that "stock prices are due to plunge". Following a little stock market history, Charles notes that while wages and salaries in the US have quadrupled over the past 30 years, the value of all US stocks has risen 18 times. In 1982, stocks relative to wages & salaries were 0.6-to-1 and now the ratio is north of 2.6-to-1. This is explained by an interesting discussion of the excess wage growth over spending argument (once basic human needs are met - and a bigger house) which prompts a brief interlude on wages & salaries as 'the' trim-tab (marginal mover) for stocks. Implicitly then, "How can stock markets be this high if the real economy is barely growing?" - the obvious answer is Central banks are tying to solve all the world's problems via the printing press and as the Bay-Area bad-boy notes, the central banks may be the largest market participant but they are not the only one and in the end "they will get what they deserve" as stocks drop to 2009 lows.

Between discussions of gold-backed debt issuance in Europe (from Rick Santelli) and why Europe's problem is not merely a banking crisis but far worse (with the need for large-scale default and deleveraging as opposed to constant political intervention to makes things worse - quoting our earlier note on Italy's insanity), Michael Pento asks, rhetorically we pre-supposed: "What is wrong with letting the free markets work here? Let's let what is going to happen, happen!" But Bill Griffeth provides the truth-quote-of-the-day (in a stunning kimono-opening for the CNBC-watching public at large) when he opines on Pento's question that "There is not a single politician who hopes to let the free markets work and be reelected."

Indeed - as Santelli adds: "You Nailed It!"

Reasonable volume but decidedly low average trade size suggests today creep higher (and late-day acceleration) to Friday's closing level for stocks and bonds was more dead-cat-bounce (DCB) than BTFD. Treasuries sold off notably but in context merely retraced 50% of the high yield to low yield range from yesterday. S&P 500 e-mini futures (ES) also retraced perfectly 50% of the high to low swing of yesterday and closed almost to the tick at Friday's closing price. The USD drifted very gently lower today (-0.08% from Friday) on Cable strength (GBP) and the ubiquitous post European-close rally in EURUSD. The late-day AUD strength was probably the most notable (just what ES needed to get the correlation-driven asset up to unch for the week). Oil bounced ebulliently off its disaster lows of yesterday with WTI now only -0.8% from Friday as Gold, Silver, and Copper are up around 1.5% on the week (though gold lagged a little today). High beta equity outperformed - Materials, Industrials, and Financials up 1.5-1.8% as the major financials managed decent bounces - though all remain weaker than yesterday's open. Notably JPM's stock popped 3% while its CDS drifted wider still ahead of Dimon's denouement tomorrow. Equities outperformed credit today once again but IG and HY did rally/squeeze into the close - though remain cheap/wide to stock's exuberance. VIX stumbled about 1.5 vols but remains above 22% as cross-asset-class correlations fell notably into the European close but picked up in the afternoon as risk-assets in general led stocks higher - rather surprisingly syncing to fair-value at the close.

An interesting tidbit from Pershing Square's just released quarterly letter: "When we first announced our stake in JCP, the stock price increased to the low $30s per share. Shortly after announcing our stake, we were approached by one of the most well-respected private equity funds in the world who expressed an interest in acquiring the company at a substantial premium. While we welcomed this fund as an owner of the stock, we had no interest in selling the company for a quick premium because we believe in the long-term value creation opportunity."

At this point there is no longer a point in commenting the daily insanity coming out of Europe. Central planning everywhere, in everything and for everyone.

• FRANCE TO LIMIT EXECUTIVE PAY TO 20 TIMES LOWEST SALARY: FIGARO
• FRANCE TO CURB PAY OF HEADS OF STATE-OWNED COS., FIGARO REPORTS
• ECONOMY MINISTRY TO ANNOUNCE DECISION TOMORROW, FIGARO SAYS

Who will be affected:

• FRENCH PAY CURB AT COS. WITH GOVT MAJORITY STAKE, FIGARO SAYS

So... all French banks soon to quite soon?

In case of 'Helicopter Ben' failure, we are again reminded that there is a Plan Z. Recall that none other than the Chairman said in 2002: "Keynes ... once semi-seriously proposed, as an anti-deflationary measure, that the government fill bottles with currency and bury them in mine shafts to be dug up by the public." Below, courtesy of William Banzai is an artist's impression of what said scavenger hunt would look like. Will there be an 'app' for that? Maybe AAPL's new 3D Maps will enable the national treasure hunt? Long Shovels.

If Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain can do it, why not everyone? Heck, why pay for anything, instead of just ramping up debts, until the consolidated debt load is so high the Fed has no choice but to bail everyone out? Of course, this is purely a thought experiment (for now... there are still 5 months in the presidential race). Still, we were curious to see if there is validation of this meme "out there" - and to do this we of course went straight to the source - Google's most recent addition in tracking public queries, Insights for Search, and looked up the term "bailout." We were not at all surprised to find the English-speaking world's curiosity in this particular synonym for a 'free lunch' (with other people's money) has exploded in the last few weeks.

The situation in Europe goes from bad to worse. Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg is back to his bearish roots as he remind us that 'throwing more debt after bad debts ends up meaning more debt'. As he notes, the definition of insanity is (via Bloomberg TV):

When you realize that of the potential $100 billion to spend, 22% of that has to be provided by Italy and their lending to Spain is at 3% but Italy has to borrow at 6%. They have to lend to Spain $22bn at 3% - it is just madness. Everybody is getting worried again. The solution that they seem to have come up with seems to be worse than the problem in the first place.

One month ago we were pleasantly surprised to note that following 42 straight months of budget deficits, among them record ones, such as the ($231.7) billion recorded in February, the US finally managed to record its first budget surplus since September 2008. The number was a modest but positive $58 billion, although there was once again more than meets the eye. On May 7 we said that "without various temporal adjustments, the April surplus of $58 billion would have been completely netted out by the cumulative $57 billion in deficit time shifts." More importantly, we said, "In other words, enjoy the surplus while you can: for another 30 or so days." Sure enough, 30 days later, the number is out, and it is back to normality: the US recorded a deficit of $125 billion in May, on outlays of $305 billion and revenues of $181 billion. And so the "surplus" miracle is over.

While the US magnanimously decided to exempt several nations from U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil imports, it appears the Chinese government has indicated it has no plans to change its position on oil purchases from Iran. As Voice of America reports, China's FinMin spokesman Liu Weimin said the purchases are necessary, because of its economic development, describing their 'purchase channels' as 'completely legal' and 'normal, open, and transparent'. China is the world's largest buyer of Iranian oil and is the last remaining major importer exposed to possible penalties when the U.S. sanctions are imposed, likely later this month. When asked if China and the United States are still in discussion about the sanctions, the spokesman would only say that Beijing has clearly informed Washington of its position. China's purchases of oil from Iran declined earlier this year, but analysts say the cutback was the result of a price dispute. Purchases went back up in April and have continued. Raise to you Hillary.

In the long run, all the hullabaloo about the various global banking crises is just hot air. The old establishment banks — the ones that have been bailed out this week in Spain, and in 2008 in America — are unnecessary middlemen. This is because of the ludicrous spreads from which they profit. They borrow from central banks and from depositors at absurdly low rates of interest (that’s what ZIRP is all about) and lend at vastly higher rates. What useful function does it serve? At one time, banks generated value by being wise lenders, lending to businesses that they determined would add value. Today they prefer gamble up even bigger profits in the zero-sum derivatives casino and shadow banking whorehouse, requiring frequent bailouts when such schemes go awry. They are dinosaurs that offer no real value to their shareholders, their customers, or to society.