Archive - Sep 21, 2012 - Story

We won't even pretend to claim we have any idea what is going on here. We know it's pretty and very detailed, so some intern definitely wasted lots of hours to plug goalseeked fund flow data (which is never accurate and is merely an estimated plug using actual calculated private fund flows) into this schematic demonstrating how the Japanese economy performed in the most recent quarter. We also know that while largely irrelevant, it would be useful for our own Federal Reserve to come out with something comparable.

The single most often broached argument that Liberty Movement writers, analysts, and strategists are confronted with by skeptics alongside well meaning but cynical newcomers is the assertion that while we happen to be very effective at pointing out the dangers of globalism and centralization, we rarely seem to take the initiative to offer “solutions” to the problem.  This same argument is also used by establishment shills as a way to distract the public’s attentions from the very real despotic enterprises of their elitist employers. In reality, the contention that the Liberty Movement offers no solutions is entirely false.  We have constructed many.  The problem is that these solutions are not the kind that the general American public wants to entertain. The bottom line is that there is little time left for top-down political fairytale dreams, and little utility left in standard street actions.  The real solutions require blood, sweat, and tears, starting with a method I have discussed for quite some time:  Decentralization.

Some have argued that iPhone 5 will single-handedly save the world's economy (as we 'discussed' here) and indeed it seems an entire new category of employment has been created thanks to the pathetic desperation of so many needing the new 'old' iPhone. As Bloomberg BusinessWeek reports, among the thousands of people expected to wait for hours outside of Apple's stores today, at least a couple hundred of them will be paid just to stand there. TaskRabbit appears to be the pre-emptive winner in 'arranging' these 'waiting-in-line' deals as one 'queuer' stated "I am a professional line waiter." Of course, the conspiracist would wonder aloud whether these crowd-fillers and line-waiters are indirectly 'purchased' to create more buzz by the demigod itself. Nevertheless, what an inspiration these Americans are: "I've done other waiting-in-line things. I think it's going to end up being, like, my specialty."

Moments ago, a stray headline crossing Bloomberg was the catalyst for violent selling across the precious metal complex. The headline in question is this:

• SOUTH AFRICA GOLD PRODUCERS TO CONSIDER BRINGING FWD WAGE TALKS

The reason for the puke in PMs is the goalseeked as follows: since miners are willing to negotiate wage hikes, the miner strike may soon be over. Well, they said that last week, when the Lonmin Maricana mine strike ended. All that happened next was for every other miner in South Africa to demand equitable terms, making the strike even worse than before. What it will mean, if indeed passed, is that a broad swath of PM miners will face default sooner rather than later, as they will be completely unable to pass on 20% cost surges to consumers, and many will file for bankruptcy sending capacity far lower in the long-run than currently, even with the mine strike. What is most funny, however, is the response in silver, which plunged in sympathy with gold and platinum as can be seen on the chart below. There is one small detail: please point out in the table below of the world's largest 20 producers of silver, just where is South Africa.

The old 'new normal' bond guru succinctly sums up Bernanke's failed logic with QEternity in 80 characters...

Gross: Fed buys Mtges but banks fail to pass through lower yields to future home buyers.

— PIMCO (@PIMCO) September 21, 2012

Gold has now reached all-time record highs in terms of the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Brazilian Real. Gold in USD is up 90% from the March 2009 equity lows and up 50-65% in the rest of the major fiat currencies.

Dick Fisher speaks: "Just recently, in a hearing before the Senate, your senator and my Harvard classmate, Chuck Schumer, told Chairman Bernanke, “You are the only game in town.” I thought the chairman showed admirable restraint in his response. I would have immediately answered, “No, senator, you and your colleagues are the only game in town. For you and your colleagues, Democrat and Republican alike, have encumbered our nation with debt, sold our children down the river and sorely failed our nation. Sober up. Get your act together. Illegitimum non carborundum; get on with it. Sacrifice your political ambition for the good of our country—for the good of our children and grandchildren. For unless you do so, all the monetary policy accommodation the Federal Reserve can muster will be for naught.”"

At $1787, gold is rapidly closing in on its recent nemesis-like $1800 level as it appears Dalio's 'expected path of least resistance' for Central Banks - i.e. QEternity - is being priced in from a balance-sheet 'stock' perspective (as opposed to equities needing the 'flow')... Just as Bernanke must be hoping, so (real money) hard assets wonder - is fourth time the charm?

For those to whom this comes as a surprise, following the periodic jaunts of Tim Geithner to Europe explaining just what is truly important in life, not to mention Obama's daily phone calls to Mario Monti, we feel truly sorry:

• "Obama doesn't want anything on a macroeconomic scale that is going to rock the global economy before Nov. 6," a senior EU official told
• "As far as European leaders are concerned, they don't want Romney, so they're probably willing to do anything to help Obama's chances," said the source, an EU official involved in finding solutions to the debt crisis.

One kinda wonders: just what has Obama promised a broke Europe in return? Don't answer: it's rhetorical. It's also "fair."

Remember when we said cash flow is always more important than diluting the M2 (the Fed is great at the latter, powerless at the former)? Here's why: The municipality of Acharnes in northern Athens has decided to suspend all of its operations after running out of money. The municipal council met on Thursday night and voted to stop providing anything other than basic services because of its inability to pay employees’ wages and regular expenses. In Nintendo Donkey Kong Game and Watch parlance: Game over.

We discussed Bridgewater's Ray Dalio in depth late last week and his historical perspective on the world we are living through. It appears CNBC has found this intriguing too and the largest hedge fund manager in the world has been espousing his views all morning. Most notably he very concerned at the possibility for social unrest (just as we have pointed out again and again) highlighting the rise of Hitler in 1933 and its parallels to the current social disruptions around the world as global economies sufffer painful deleveragings. His suggestion is that gold "should be part of everybody's portfolio" as he explains the reality of the endgame of fiat monetary systems. As far as Warren Buffett's distaste for the yellow metal, he opines "I think he is making a big mistake."

As we reported first thing this morning, Spain, while happy to receive the effect of plunging bond yields, most certainly does not want the cause - requesting the inevitable sovereign bailout. To paraphrase Italy's undersecretary of finance, Gianfranco Polillo: "There won’t be any nation that voluntarily, with a preemptive move, even if rationally justified, would go to an international body and say -- ‘I give up my national sovereignty." He is spot on. However, the one thing that will force countries to request a bailout is the inevitable outcome of soaring budget deficits: i.e., running out of cash (as calculated here previously, an event Spain has to certainly look forward to all else equal). Which simply means that sooner or later Mariano Rajoy will have to throw in the towel and push the red button, knowing full well it most certainly means the end of his administration, and very likely substantial social and political unrest for a country which already has 25% unemployment, all just to preserve the ability to fund its deficits, instead of biting the bullet and slashing public spending (and funding needs), which too would cause social unrest - hence no way out. But why would a bailout request result in unrest? Reuters finally brings us the details of what the Spanish bailout would entail, and they are not pretty: "Spain is considering freezing pensions and speeding up a planned rise in the retirement age as it races to cut spending and meet conditions of an expected international sovereign aid package, sources with knowledge of the matter said...The accelerated raising of the retirement age to 67 from 65, currently scheduled to take place over 15 years, is a done deal, the sources said. The elimination of an inflation-linked annual pension hike is still being considered."

The last couple of months have been characterised by some weak but 'relatively positive' surprises in macro economic data compared to dismal expectations; but that rising momentum has begun to fade very recently. Sagging domestic growth and weak external demand have created noticeable slowdowns in the industrial production and manufacturing sector. This, as Bloomberg Brief notes, has been the area of the economy that has been the primary driver of growth throughout the recovery and represents the greatest risk to the current economic outlook for sub-trend growth at or below 2 percent. As Joseph Brusuelas points out, these disappointing charts indicate, fiscal gridlock aside, the deterioration in the industrial sector is a 'dagger pointed straight at the heart of a weak cyclical expansion'.

As we enter the North American cross over, equity indices in Europe are seen higher, supported by telecom and health care sectors. There was little in terms of fresh news flow and instead the price action was largely driven by expiration of various futures and option contracts. On that note, it is not only the quadruple witching day, but also quarterly S&P rebalancing. As such, brief spells of volatility will be observed as market participants close out remaining positions. Looking elsewhere, range bound price action was observed in the fixed income market, where the benchmark German Bund is currently trading in close proximity to 140.00 level. Talk of demand from Middle Eastern accounts in EUR/USD earlier in the session saw the pair trip buy stops above 1.3000 and then above 1.3025. GBP/USD was a direct beneficiary of USD weakness, which in turn pushed the pair above 1.6300 level (touted option barrier). Going forward, the second half of the session will see the release of the latest CPI from Canada.

The torching of US embassies across the Muslim world may have been put on the backburner, perhaps driven by the withdrawal of virtually all embassy personnel across the affected regions, but the anti-US sentiment, whether predicated by some movie or not - and oddly enough nobody appears to have set any French embassies on fire following the Prophet Mohammad cartoon which appeared earlier this week, continues. The latest affected country: Pakistan, where "police opened fire on rioters who were torching a cinema during a protest against an anti-Islam film Friday, killing one man on a holiday declared by the government so that people could demonstrate against the video." So, the government specifically creates a "holiday" to protest the video then shoots people who protest the video? Does anyone else get the feeling that all authorities here are urgently doing their best to preempt a war? Was there a secret G-50 meeting in which it was decided the world was too overpopulated and a war was desperately needed? Surely that is ludicrous: just look at the natural growth that the world experienced after the first great depression unaided and unabetted by such trivialities as world war.