Archive - Sep 5, 2012 - Story

• The bankers are coming: Banker Plan Would Fund Super-PACs to Sway U.S. Senate Elections (Bloomberg)
• Risk Increases of Prolonged World Slowdown, BOJ’s Miyao Says (Bloomberg)
• Spain Seeks to Stem Its Banking Crisis (WSJ)
• Deadly shooting mars new Quebec premier's victory rally (NBC)
• Democrats Keep Tax-Raising Focus On Top 2% Of Households (Bloomberg)
• Merkel Swings Into 2013 Election Mode Evoking Crisis, China (Bloomberg)
• Europe’s money market funds future in focus (FT)
• Pressure Mounts on ECB to Bring Down Bond Yields (Reuters)
• Swiss bank vows to hold franc down (FT)
• Australia economy still solid in Q2 despite GDP miss, but threats mount (Reuters)
• Clinton Brings to Beijing Plea for Maritime Solution (Bloomberg)
• The End of a 1,400-Year-Old Business (BusinessWeek)

With one day to go until the European soap opera hits its peak, and with the ECB doing all it can to spread disinformation and sow discord and disunity between Germany and everyone else on both the ECB governing council and everywhere else, Germany has decided to again make it clear just where it stands on the topic of hyperinflation and other printing matters. The punchline:

• ECB'S DRAGHI DOESN'T HAVE 'TOO MUCH' SUPPORT FROM MERKEL, MERKEL BACKS WEIDMANN
  
• ECB CAN ONLY BUY BONDS ATTACHED TO CONDITIONALITY

But wait, there is much more. Readers may recall that yesterday that one of the articles we pointed out came from Dutch Dagblad which suggested that it was Weidmann who was isolated on the ECB governing council, and that the Dutch member of the ECB council Klass Knot as well as all other members was "for buying government bonds of Southern European countries." Well, prepare to be shocked, because what kind of soap opera would it be if it wasn't for unexpected narrative plot lines. Today, Frankfurt-based Market News reported precisely the opposite, and not only is Knot on the same side as the Germans, but so are virtually all the other "virtuous" European countries, aka the non-beggars.

After opening on a very weak note, it was only expected that following some even weaker economic news overnight which continue to confirm the global turn into a sharp recession, futures are doing all they can to remain unchanged, and in some cases are even green as the traditional Pavlovian reaction kicks in: the worse the news, the likelier the intervention. Of course, the market's dogs are ignoring the fact that right now both gas (never higher on this US day in history) and food prices are surging and the central planners are quite aware of this, not to mention the US presidential election, although at this point nobody really believes that the Fed is impartial so that is a secondary consideration, even as actual fundamentals continue to deteriorate and the spread between cash-flow implied valuations and central bank set risk prices has never been wider. Which brings us to the overnight session, which is slowly picking up in activity but is nothing compared to what will be unleashed tomorrow early in the morning and continuing likely through the end of the year.

This morning, Germany attempted to sell €5 billion in 1.5% 10 Year bonds. It sold just €3.61 billion directly to investors (who had submitted a less than auction clearing €3.91 billion in bids), forcing the German Treasury to retain 27.8% of the auction, €1.39 billion: the highest retained amount since November 2011 when it was 39%. For one reason or another: the yield was too low at 1.42% (compared to the 1.634 average), there was much more supply elsewhere, fears of what the ECB will do tomorrow, or who knows - the real bid to cover was a paltry 0.79 (all in BTC 1.09 including government retention) compared to 1.57 at the last auction and a 1.31 average at the past 4 auctions. In other words the auction was for all technical reasons, a failure, and only the second such "failure" of 2012. The immediate reaction was Bund futures down 22 ticks at 143.28 vs 143.70 before auction as the market digested the surprising disappointment, with the German 10-year government bond yield up 2.4 basis points at 1.41 percent vs 1.37 percent before auction. In summary, if the Germans needed any more reasons that funding the insolvent Eurozone at all costs up to an including debt monetizations, which may result in failed bond auctions for German itself, are not in their best interest, they just got one. The good news: in an email sent out immediately by the German Finance agency, the bond sale was "not a risk to the budget." Wouldn't want a failed bond auction to jeopardize the budget now.