Archive - Sep 2012 - Story

As requested previously. Cutting to the chase, the murder of a US ambassador is not casus belli. Perhaps because it is not quite certain just whom the US would retaliate against, if it indeed decided to do so...

While everyone, everywhere is earnestly scratching their heads if under the 'Fairness Doctrine' the murder of a US ambassador to a recently "liberated" Muslim country is considered casus belli, or merely the signal to turn the other cheek, and eagerly awaiting Hillary Clinton to advise on the issue, here is the just released statement by the president.

• Germany Can Ratify ESM Fund With Conditions, Court Rules (Bloomberg)
• Obama Discusses Iran Nuclear Threat With Netanyahu (Bloomberg)
• Stocks, Euro Gain as Court Allows ESM; Irish Bonds Climb (Bloomberg)
• U.S. cautions Japan, China over escalating islands row (Reuters)
• Draghi alone cannot save the euro (FT)
• 'New York Post' Runs Boldest Anti-Obama Ad Yet (Bloomberg)
• Another urban legend: Fish Oil Pills Don’t Fix Heart Ills in 24-Year Data Review (Bloomberg)
• Troika Says Portugal’s Program is ‘On Track’ (Bloomberg)
• Russia Wants to Steer Clear of 'Gas War' (WSJ)
• U.S. Said Set to Target First Non-Bank Firms for Scrutiny (Bloomberg)
• Wen Says China’s Policy Strength Will Secure Growth Targets (Bloomberg)
• UK faces clash with Brussels on City (FT)

Europe's chicken or egg problem is about to strike with a vengeance. As a reminder, the biggest paradox of the recently conceived "make it up as you go along" bailout of Europe is that "in order to be saved, Spain (and Italy) must first be destroyed". Sure enough, the markets have long since priced in the "saved" part with the Spanish 10 year sliding to multi-month lows, but in the process everyone forgot about the destruction. Because as has been made quite clear, secondary market bond buying will not be activated without a formal bailout request by a country, in essence admitting its insolvency, and handing over domestic fiscal and sovereign control to the IMF and other international entities. As a further reminder, many, Goldman Sachs especially, had hoped that Spain would request a bailout as soon as Friday. To wit: "With a large (and uncovered) redemption looming at the end of October (and under pressure from other Euro area governments), we expect Spain to move towards seeking support." Alas, as we expected, this is now not going to happen, and the pricing in of the entire "saved" part will have to be unwound as Spain is forced to accept being "destroyed" first. To wit: "I don't know if Spain needs to ask for it," Rajoy told parliament in a debate session, referring to an international rescue for Spain."

Yesterday it was the US embassy in Egypt which fell victim to rioting as angry protestors stormed the building and replaced the US flag with a black one. Today, the violence shifts to Libya where the US ambassador and three staffers was just killed after an attack over a US-produced filmed deemed insulting to Muslims. Perhaps it is time for the US to replace one "pro-democracy" regime with another. From Reuters: "The U.S. ambassador to Libya and three other embassy staff were killed in a rocket attack on their car, a Libyan official said, as they were rushed from a consular building stormed by militants denouncing a U.S.-made film insulting the Prophet Mohammad." Number of US ambasadors to Libya killed under Gadaffi's regime? Zero.

Below is an extract of the full statement whose summary kept everyone up this morning, most certainly the headline reacting algos, and which the robots so far seem to like more than dislike.

Despite an initial knee-jerk higher on the 'ratification' confirmation, risk-asset markets seems less than enamored at the new European Conditional Union. European and US stocks popped but are falling back now - only marginally higher. EURUSD is back to pre-decision levels - though swung around in some crazy stop-seeking runs up and down. Bunds and TSYs are modestly higher in yield; Spainish and Italian bond yields are flat (so spreads are marginally lower). The biggest movers are Gold and Silver so far.

UPDATE: EURUSD unsure - but seems like 'Unlimited' ECB Bazooka's trigger (ESM) is now capped at EUR190bn from Germany.

The Kardinals of Karlsuhe kame through. As somewhat expected, they declined the complaint that, simply put - and among many other things, the ESM structure (i.e. German payments into it) stretches German constitutionality and can proceed to a broader vote next year - but basically - in a nutshell - there's no coming back now. As expected there are conditions though - that the market seems perturbed by:

• *GERMAN COURT ALLOWS ESM RATIFICATION WITH CONDITIONS :13347Z US
• *GERMANY MUST SET CAP FOR LIABILITY UNDER ESM WEHEN RATIFYING
• *GERMANY MUST MAKE SURE ITS ESM SHARE IS CAPPED AT EU190 BLN

Limited ESM (primary market) vs Unlimited secondary bond market buying (OMT). Go figure it out

The "fate of Europe" rests in their hands. Watch the decision live here.

As the world waits with baited breath for the Karlsruhe Klan to decline (the positive risk-on decision), markets are leaking modestly off their overnight best levels. Barroso's State of the Union seemed to have been the trigger for some weakness as he reminded everyone just how political this problem is. EURUSD is up 10pips, S&P 500 e-mini futures are up 2.5pts, European stocks are up marginally (IBEX +0.5%, MIB +0.17%, CAC -0.15%, EuroStoxx unch), Financial and corporate credit is 2-5bps tighter (XOver -9bps at one-year tights), and Sovereign spreads unch to slightly tighter.

• *BARROSO CALLS FOR DECISIVE DEAL TO COMPLETE EMU
• *BARROSO SAYS FEDERATION WILL ULTIMATELY REQUIRE NEW TREATY
• *BARROSO SAYS EU MUST COMPLETE DEEP ECONOMIC, POLITICAL UNION
• *BARROSO CALLS FOR FEDERATION OF NATION STATES, NOT SUPER-STATE

A whole lot of pundits are spending column inches trying to explain the cruel reality of the last forty years — stagnant wages for full-time male workers, falling wages for men as a whole, and a huge outgrowth of men who aren’t in the labour force. The question is why. Mainstream media pundits are suggesting that men are unsuited to the present economic landscape. It’s not at all the case that the United States is cutting back on industrial jobs because industry is less in demand. The United States still has plenty of demand for industry. America has cut back on industrial jobs because it has the ability to run huge trade deficits, through the dollar’s role as global reserve currency, and shipped its manufacturing industry abroad. Yet the present paradigm has severely damaged the prospects of young men, for whom a generation ago jobs in industry and manufacturing were once plentiful. Quantitative easing led to a jobs boom — in China, for Chinese industrial workers. And it seems unlikely that the industrial jobs are coming back any time soon.

Yesterday, in a rather paradoxical development, the Japanese Cabinet formally announced that the government will purchase several disputed islands that China also claims — a move that Beijing said would bring "serious consequences." The issue at hand is that China and Taiwan also claim the islands, which are part of what Japan calls the Senkakus and China the Diaoyu group. It is paradoxical because the last thing Japan, and its statutory deflationary and demographic collapse needs right now is to "antagonize" the world's fastest growing economy, and its neighbor to the west with whom it had a rather violent give or take as recently as 1945. Japan spin was naive: Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura repeated that the islands are part of Japan's territory and should not cause any friction with other countries or regions. "We certainly do not wish the issue to affect our diplomatic relations with China and it is important to resolve any misunderstanding or miscommunication." Turns out quite a bit of friction was caused as a result, as well as a substantial amount of misunderstanding and miscommunication. As Globe and Mail reports, "China has dispatched two patrol ships to the East China Sea in a show of naval strength and antagonism toward Japan after Tokyo said it had purchased a group of disputed islands from their private owners. China’s aggressive response ratcheted up tensions in a long-standing conflict between the two countries over claims to the territory."

Lakshman Achutan, ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Institute) made a recession call for the US on September 30, 2011 (and confirmed it multiple times since then). Gary Shilling, titling his August letter “Global Recession”, says “We are already in a global recession.” However, equity markets don’t think so, with the S&P 500 trading less than 10% away from a new all-time high. Only one side can be right. Could this be a repeat of October 2007, when the S&P 500 hit new all-time highs mere six weeks before the “Great Recession” began? Are so-called leading indicators, as used by the Conference Board, still reliable? Established leading indicators incorporate questionable input. While there is no perfect indicator, a combination of the ones tested here, weighed by accuracy, confidence and timeliness should produce a good reading. The higher-confidence indicators say that 2011 was a “close call”, but we are currently not in a recession. However, a lot of lower-confidence indicators are showing readings consistent with a severe recession.