Archive - Oct 1, 2013 - Story

While the recent surge in the Baltic Dry Index was headlined as 'proof' that the global recovery was 'on', China is back, and every retiree should BTFATH, we recently noted, all was not at all it seems on the surface of this data. Fast forward a few days and we have had 2 China PMI misses (notably disappointing relative to their Flash prints) and now the Baltic Dry has plunged by its most in 11 months over the last 4 days. Of course, we've seen these kind of ramps and dumps before in the Baltic Dry - though it is odd that we don't hear the cheerleaders as the price collapses.

We already noted the apparently 'transitory' weakness in GM's numbers and huge surge in channel-stuffing; but now the full numbers are in and it is not pretty. The annualized domestic vehicles sales collapsed (by the most in 29 months) to 11.66 million - it's lowest in 11 months - missing expectations by the most since January 2009. Stone McCarthy offers some hope that this does not signal "peak autos" for this cycle as they note, "it would appear that sales for September were pulled into August due to the extra selling days for August, stemming from the manner in which the Labor Day weekend fell on the calendar this year. Recall that August sales were firmer relative to expectations and now we have September being weaker."

"Obamacare is a disaster," is the jumping-off point for David Stockman's latest tirade against the "greatest expansion to the welfare state in the last 80 years," that was rammed through congress on a totally partisan vote. In this brief Bloomberg TV clip, Stockman "understands why the Republicans are willing to hold up government if they have to," as there is growing intensity of partisanship and resentment that can only bode ill for debt ceiling discussions... "The Republicans have to take a stand."

Update: And another quick rejection: CARNEY SAYS PIECEMEAL APPROACH TO FUNDING GOVT ‘NOT SERIOUS’

If the president was hoping to shame the Republicans into caving and passing a clean Continuing Resolution, by constantly blaming them about the broader government shutdown, he will have to shift his strategy. Moments ago Reuters and other wire services report, citing Republican Peter King, that House Republicans plan to pass three funding bills today to reopen Federal Parks, veteran programs and fund for the District of Columbia. In other words, little by little, the GOP will provide funding for everything... except Obamacare, which they will keep as a trump card up their sleeve until the debt ceiling negotiation comes to a head some time in the next week.

An inept Indian government is attempting to use the age old tactic of scapegoating in order to deflect attention away from its widespread policy failures. In the case of India, the target is gold. It’s a logical target for any crony Indian bureaucrat or Central Banker to go after. Wealth confiscation is a tried and true method historically used by corrupt elites to stay in power, and there is plenty of gold floating around the subcontinent. Easy pickings... or so they thought. It appears some of the temples are now drawing a line in the sand, and are in fact refusing to provide details about their holdings...

Spot the odd 4-week bill auction out...

The first speech by a standing president in 17 years to address a government shut down is certain to be full of sound, fury and lots of blame. Look beyond the traditional platitudes for any mention of the real danger to the US, the debt ceiling, which will hit in just over two weeks and if the shutdown is any indication, the preceding "negotiation" will hardly be smooth and by the numbers. Also, it will finally be disclosed if the teleprompter is a critical government service.

We can safely predict the inevitable budget-debt ceiling deal will spark yet another "the Status Quo is saved" rally in the stock market. But what happens after that?

UPDATE: *ITALY'S LETTA TO CALL CONFIDENCE VOTE: ANSA CITING MINISTER

Italian sovereign bond spreads fell a mere 2bps on the day as Italian stocks (after techncial issues) screamed higher by over 3% - their best day in 3 months - as rumor after headline hit of the slow dissolution of Berlusconi's apparent power. As the confidence vote nears in Italy, several of Berlusconi's top aides are defying him as tries to collapse what is already a fragile coalition. The WSJ just broke news that 40 Italian lawmakers are ready to break with Berlusconi -, and Berlusconi's own party secretary stated that "all should vote for Letta" - that sent stocks to their highs at the close. Despite his anger at center-left senators pending vote to strip him of his Senate seat, it appears the 77-year old media mogul, as AP notes, will be pressured to drop his bid to sabotage PM Letta.

From: Chilton, Bart <BChilton@cftc.gov>
Subject: Re: Today's Smackdown

No regulators looking at markets due to government shut down.

B

Perhaps investors are becoming inured to the United States’ annual debt-ceiling debacle, now playing out for the third year in a row. But, as the short-term antics become more routine, the risks of long-term dysfunction become more apparent. At least for now, the rest of the world has seemingly unbounded confidence – reflected in very low borrowing rates – in America’s capacity to put its house (of representatives) in order. No one can imagine that a country with so many unique economic advantages would risk such a damaging self-inflicted wound as default would cause. But this time could be different. Obama needs to force his Republican opponents to blink, and there is no guarantee that they will.

Carl iCahn - whose media presence outweighs his shareholder presence - has tweeted the results of his dinner with Apple's Tim Cook.

Had a cordial dinner with Tim last night. We pushed hard for a 150 billion buyback. We decided to continue dialogue in about three weeks.

— Carl Icahn (@Carl_C_Icahn) October 1, 2013

AAPL shares are surging and the market is following suit...

Just a month ago, we were exuberantly told that the 14.7% rise in August sales for GM (against an expectation of an 11% rise) was not just great news but was entirely sustainable. Some suggested that this was merely demand dragged forward as rates rose, dealers channels were stuffed, and the vinegar strokes of an exuberant Fed were occurring. Today we have our answer...

• *GM U.S. SEPT. VEHICLE SALES FALL 11%, EST. DOWN 4.2%
• Inventory up to 82 days from 64 days!! (Surge to 670,191 units from 628,644 prior)

We are sure that weather played a role; the calendar didn't help; government (Republicans) are probably at fault somehow; and it's a 'blip' but it seems like quite a miss for a "sustainable" new normal in auto sales.

Since the entire world now follows in the footsteps of China, its data fudging example and its Schrodinger economy which is both growing and contracting at the same time, it was very much expected that in the aftermath of the MarkIt US PMI, which missed expectations earlier, that the ISM's own Manufacturing Report on business would smash expectations of a decline from 55.7 to 55.0, instead printing at 56.2 or the highest since April 2011. And since the data on construction spending is not available due to the whole government shutdown thing, the mood for the day will now be set as one of exuberant enthusiasm for manufacturing, yet one where the "other" PMI will be referenced when predicting how much longer the Fed will not taper for.