Archive - Oct 2, 2013 - Story

In an interview with CNBC's John Harwood, Obama once again shows why the polarization in Congress is at record levels. In a brief: he said he is "exasperated", and that the shutdown is "entirely unncessary" but adds that he is (finally?) prepared to negotiate, however only after he gets his way namely after the government is reopened. And another important talking point: Obama added that while gridlock in D.C. is nothing new, "this time I think Wall Street should be concerned." It is unclear how that statement makes any sense in light of Obama's right hand senator Chuck Schumer telling the man who is really in charge, Ben Bernanke, to get to work. Unless of course, Obama is now angling for a "concerning" market crash, which sends the Dow down by 20% like in the summer of 2011, and Obama can tell the stunned public "I told you so."

Bonds were well bid into the US open this morning and stocks had given up all their 'shutdown' gains and slid further on the ADP news which had nothing to further the case for taper or no taper. The big turnaround happened when rumors circulated of a 'deal' - which were later denied - but by then the momentum had caught on. Luckily the rumor coincided with POMO and we lifted a majestic 7 S&P points into the European close. Treasuries initially ignored the rise but gave in after a while with yields rising but stocks remaining notably disconnected from bonds by the close. The late-day collapse in VIX yesterday evaporated was smashed higher, divergent from stocks in the afternoon until another pathetic ramp into the close which lifted the S&P to its day-session highs but closed down for the 8th of the last 10 days. Gold and Silver blew higher on the day recovering all yesterday's losses.

In and of itself, the government shutdown appears to be a limited market event. The indirect effect, however, is on the other main risk scenario for markets – the deal on the debt ceiling (which will need to be in place before October 17). An increase in the probability of breaching the debt ceiling would likely be destabilizing for the market. For one, the effect on growth will be far larger – our economists estimate that it would imply an immediate cut in spending equal to 4.2% of GDP (4Q average of the fiscal deficit). Second, it would raise the risk of a US sovereign default because the Treasury does not believe it has the authority to prioritize interest payments above other obligations. As such, with markets firmly focused on US fiscal matters - so where to from here?

Despite its position as a "cult" stock - capable of enduring anything (according to Cramer) - the holy grail of momentum stocks is under massive pressure today. Down 9% as we write, Tesla seems to be at the center of a quadruple whammy of retail investors realizing they have become unwitting bagholders to selling institutions, an analyst's downgrade, a major potential dilution event as the firm's convertible note becomes 'convertible' and investors sell to take profits on their bond's huge gains, and an additional factor which may have led to the acceleration in the sell-off in the last hour or so, has been the emergence of an unverified YouTube video which purports to show a burning Tesla, although the firm's investor relations promptly responded, via CNBC, saying the fire is due to the car colliding with a large metal object in the middle of the road (of which roads tend to have quite many)... and burst in flames?

15 Bankers just paid a visit to the White House, listened to President Obama, and explained what a total disaster it would be if the US debt-ceiling is breached and Treasuries technically default. While the politicians exclaimed how bad a government shutdown would be, the banks have turned the panic dial to 11 as Goldman's Lloyd Blankfein noted, bankers are “in a position to really know early what the consequences are,” and it would be catastrophic. The irony that the firm which the government is trying to fine $20 billion for selling fraudulent debt and giving bad advice is now providing the same government with advice on its own bad debt, is not lost on us as Dimon was among the visitors but it is Blankfein's warning, echoing Obama, that will get the headlines, "they shouldn't use the threat of causing the U.S. to fail on its obligation to repay debt as a cudgel."

First it was the Americans. Now it is the Russians' turn. Al Arabiya reports (and Itar-Tass confirms) that "Gunmen attacked the Russian embassy in the Libyan capital Tripoli on Wednesday, Al Arabiya correspondent reported. The sound of gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades could be heard around the embassy, the correspondent added. No further details were immediately available."  “There has been an incident in Tripoli tonight, in which there was shelling and attempts to enter the territory of the Russian Embassy in this country,” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Aleksandr Lukashevich told RT.

Earlier today, one of the most popular websites that use and promote the use of BitCoin, Silk Road, was shut down by the US government. As Reuters reports, U.S. law enforcement authorities raided an Internet site that served as a marketplace for illegal drugs, including heroin and cocaine, and arrested its owner, the Federal Bureau of Investigation said on Wednesday. The FBI arrested Ross William Ulbricht, known as "Dread Pirate Roberts," in San Francisco on Tuesday, according to court filings. Federal prosecutors charged Ulbricht with one count each of narcotics trafficking conspiracy, computer hacking conspiracy and money laundering conspiracy, according to a court filing. Anyone visiting the site would be greeted with the following "game over" screen.

With mortgage applications down around 60% from their peak in April, the last best hope for sustained "recovery" in housing 'was' the cash-only bid from private equity and hedge capital in the REO-to-rent or flip-dat-house trades. As we have noted previously, that last pillar was starting to falter and as Bloomberg reports, it seems is now in full crack mode as Carlyle Group switches from marginal buyer to marginal seller in its $2.3 billion real estate funds. "Our capital was useful at the front edge of the recovery," the firm notes - implying the big gains are over as rent growth fades (as employment and income growth slows). Crucially, they add, "investors really want the new Class A properties so we’re selling into that demand." We assume that by "investors" they mean greater-fool bag-holders.

For today's quote of the day, we go to Boston Fed's president Eric Rosengren who just had the following pearl of wisdom:

• ROSENGREN: `REALITY DOESN'T ALWAYS LIVE UP TO OUR FORECASTS'

At least he didn't say it is reality that is wrong and the Fed's forecasts being fundamentally correct.

Five years ago today, the CEOs of the big banks visited one US president with one goal in mind: get billions in taxpayer dollars to get bailed out. Today, the same bank CEOs are once again at the White House, this time invited by a different president, "as part of the Obama Administration's ongoing efforts to mend relations with the financial services sector and woo their support for White House policy." One can assume that in addition to the trite generalities surrounding the shut government and the debt ceiling, one topic of conversation is how Wall Street can accentuate the severity of the ongoing governance crisis and most certainly includes such demands by Obama as "stop sending stocks higher when the only catalyst is my inability to create any sort of compromise."

The New Normal: a world in which the best performing "asset" in the month of September was the stock market of bankrupt Greece, while silver, that historic store of value, was on the other end, performing the worst.

It seems the non-negotiating red-line-making President is willing to umm... negotiate. Depsite Harry Reid's fire-and-brimstone, the WSJ reports that:

*OBAMA SAID TO INVITE CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS TO MEETING TODAY (at 530pm ET)
*OBAMA SEEKING FUNDING MEASURE FOR GOVERNMENT, DEBT CEILING HIKE

McConnell, Reid, and Pelosi are also to attend. Oh to be a fly on that wall? For now, equity algos are buying first and thinking later as bonds remain more stoic.

The question of Peak Government is ultimately a question of Peak Debt: how much money can the government borrow to sustain its current spending? Can public and private debt expand at rates four or five times that of the underlying economy? If so, for how long? If we are not yet at Peak Debt, we are getting close, and that means we are also getting close to Peak Government.

Not entirely surprising but the President is not amused at the House's "piecemeal" funding bill plans:

If the President were presented with H.J. Res. 70, H.J. Res. 71, H.J. Res. 72, H.J. Res. 73, and H.R. 3230, he would veto the bills.

Back to the drawing-board of "no negotiation" it would seem.

Odd that the mainstream media is not discussing the 4% spike in precious metals this morning as vociferously as they discussed the imminent demise of gold and silver yesterday. With stocks having given back all the Shutdown gains, gold and silver prices are surging higher retracing all yesterday's losses as Treasury yields fall and the USD weakens on EUR strength. It seems, perhaps, the spike in 1 month T-Bill yields (and inversion of the USA CDS curve) is being priced into other safe-haven assets...