Archive - Oct 2013 - Story

To Bill Gross @PIMCO: If you really want to do good, why not join http://t.co/nn6jp9E2ch like Gates, I and many others have?

— Carl Icahn (@Carl_C_Icahn) October 28, 2013

One of the prevailing themes in recent weeks has been that Spain has transformed out of Europe's economic basket case into a success story. This was further exemplified today by the following quotes by DieselBOOM:SPANISH RECOVERY IS ON TRACK;SPAIN COULD BE FRONT RUNNER OF EURO-AREA RECOVERY. It could, if one listens to bureaucrats peddling snake oily hope, but certainly not based on actual dynamics in its housing market, where mortgage apps have tumbled 90% from all time highs... and certainly not based on loan to companies or households, which continue to be the worst in the Eurogroup.

Last month was all ponies and unicorns as hope was extrapolated that a 19-month high in the Dallas Fed meant this time was different and not entirely cyclical as we have pointed out again and again. Once again it seems the government-budget-based hope has collapsed as even optimism for the future dropped to its lowest in 4 months. This is the biggest miss of expectations on six months and the lowest print in 5 months. Reflecting the margin pressures that we discussed previously, prices received dropped dramatically as price paid soared.

Despite Joe Lavorgna's seemingly gigantic cognitive dissonance in the face of this report, the pending home sales data collapsed in September (and remember this is before the shutdown and was heralded at the time as buyers rushing to buy before the risk of the shutdown slowed acceptances). Affordability, argued by some serial extrapolators as still being 'relatively' positive - has drastically weighed on housing at the margin just as we argued previously. This is the first annual drop in 29 months, the biggest drop in 40 months, and the biggest miss against expectations in 40 months. Even the typically full of spin, NAR Chief economist had to admit "this tells us to expect lower home sales for the fourth quarter, with a flat trend going into 2014." Apparently, if one is to believe the spin, overheard everywhere in September: "Hmm, government may shut down next month - let's not buy a house."

The status quo is as intellectually bankrupt as it is financially bankrupt. Our leadership cannot conceive of any course of action other than central bank credit creation and expanding state control of the economy and social benefits, paid for with money borrowed from future generations.

Industrial Production data for September rose by 0.6%, beating expectations by the most in 11 months as pre-government shutdown data was 'helped' by a revision lower in August (from 0.4% to 0.2% growth). Manufacturing production rose only 0.1% (missing expectations of +0.3%) as gains in car makers' output was offset by declines in comptures, furniture, and applicances. Capacity Utilization surged to 5 year highs with its biggest beat of expectations since Dec 2010. All-in-all, a strangely mixzed bag of great and dismal data once again... Good enough 'trend' to warrant 'taper'? who knows... but we posit the cyclical trend remains and the government shutdown likely renegs some of this better-than-expected data when we see it.

It was as if a million Warren Buffetts cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. That is an artist's impression of what happened overnight following news that McDonalds would, after 40 years of serving the red tomato paste in its global restaurants, drop the use of Heinz ketchup from its stores. The apparent reason: executive bad blood due to the appointment of Bernardo Hees, the former CEO of biggest rival Burger King, as the current head of Heinz following the Berkshire purchase of the company in February, in the process making the John Kerry estate even richer.

Almost exactly one year after Superstorm Sandy crushed the eastern seaboard of the USA, and 26 years after the last devastating storm to hit the south of England, the so-called St.Jude's Day storm - among the worst in recent memory - is battering the UK (and some of Europe) with winds up to 99 mph. So far there are 2 reported deaths, 220,000 homes without power, all SouthWest trains halted, and over 130 flights cancelled at Heathrow airport. Two nuclear plants have been shutdown and hundreds of trees have fallen blocking roads and rail links across as the storm begins to shift into mainland Europe...

Across the board the USD is rallying against the majors (having once again tested 17 month low resistance in the USD index). Much of the strength is coming from EUR weakness as excess liquidity in the eurozone drops to a fresh two-year low (prompting talk of renewed liquidity injections or LTROs). This has knocked US and European stocks notably lower from overnight highs leaving S&P futures an odd shade of red in the pre-open. Treasury yields are also pressing higher in the last few hours along with Commodities.

While the "indignation" by America's allies will come and go, the punchline in the overnight response to NSA's ongoing reputational hammering came not from Europe, but from China.

• CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESWOMAN HUA CHUNYING COMMENTS ON NSA
• CHINA SAYS NSA PHONE TAPS VIOLATE LEADERS' PRIVACY

Because when even China makes fun of your spying practices, it's probably time to call it a ballgame.

If Churchill were alive today, he would probably characterize the rollout of Obamacare as a humiliation, wrapped in an embarrassment, inside a mockery-punching bag injury. And overnight, in addition to all the other well-known gremlins that have plagued America's socialized healthcare from Day 1, insult was added injury, following a Reuters report that a "data center critical for allowing uninsured Americans to buy health coverage under President Barack Obama's healthcare law went down on Sunday, halting online enrollment for all 50 states." In other words, on top of and in addition to all the other bad coding and website processing issues that have been exposed and promptly scapegoated on other (you see Obama knew all about the successes, but nothing about the failures of Obamacare), now the internet itself is starting to glitch up. Which is hardly surprising considering Al Gore's involvement in the latter.

• Budget deficit priorities people: U.S. NSA spied on 60 million Spanish phone calls in a month (Reuters)
• Stuck in countless scandals, Obama does what he does best: speak. Obama To Speak At Installation Of FBI Director James Comey (TPM)
• Five killed as car ploughs into crowd in Beijing's Tiananmen Square (Reuters)
• U.K. Storm Brings Power Cuts, Snarls Transport in South (BBG)
• China Signals ‘Unprecedented’ Policy Changes on Agenda at Plenum (BBG)
• Sandy's Legacy: Higher Home Prices (WSJ)
• Merkel Enters Concrete SPD Talks as Finance Post Looms (BBG)
• Keep arming those Syrian al-qaeda rebels: Car bombs kill scores in Baghdad, in sign of crisis in Iraq (WaPo)
• J.P. Morgan's Mortgage Troubles Ran Deep (WSJ)
• Detroit’s public library contains story of city’s decline (FT)
• Argentina elections: President loses in Buenos Aires province (BBC)
• Phone-hacking: trial of Andy Coulson and Rebekah Brooks to begin (Guardian)

In the upcoming week, the key event is the US FOMC, though we and the consensus do not expect any key decisions to be taken. Though a strengthening of forward guidance is still possible, virtually nobody expects anything of import to be announced until the Dec meeting. In the upcoming week we also have five more central bank meetings in addition to the FOMC: Japan, New Zealand, India, Hungary and Israel. In Hungary we, in line with consensus, expect a 20bps cut to 3.40% in the policy rate. In India consensus expects a 25bps hike in the repo rate to 7.75%. On the data front, US IP, retail sales and pending home sales are worth a look, but the key release will be the ISM survey at the end of the week, together with manufacturing PMIs around the world. US consumer confidence is worth a look, given the potential impact from the recent fiscal tensions.

Just as it is easy being a weatherman in San Diego ("the weather will be... nice. Back to you"), so the same inductive analysis can be applied to another week of stocks in Bernanke's centrally planned market: "stocks will be... up." Sure enough, as we enter October's last week where the key events will be the conclusion of the S&P earnings season and the October FOMC announcement (not much prop bets on a surprise tapering announcement this time), overnight futures have experienced the latest off the gates, JPY momentum ignition driven melt up.