Archive - Oct 2013 - Story

Leaving rates unchanged for now, all Draghi has left in his arsenal is to jawbone the EUR down (since we already know the strength of the EUR is hurting corporate earnings). Moar negative rate "possibilities", a sprinkling of "things are not quite as awesome as markets presume", and a hint or two at the need for another VLTRO? And we are sure this time, he will explain exactly how the OMT will work...

Moments ago, Italy's most popular politician flip-flopped on his threats from the past weekend to take down Italy's government, and after realizing he does not have enough support even in his own party to push for early elections and a vote of no confidence for prime minister Letta, Berlusconi announced his party will vote to support the government of the current Premier, a major turnabout that signals he was defeated in his efforts to bring down the government.

No surprise this morning from the ECB, which keeps its benchmark rate at 0.5% and the deposit rate at 0.00%.

At today’s meeting, which was held in Paris, the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.50%, 1.00% and 0.00% respectively.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. CET today.

More at the press conference in 45 minutes when Draghi may or may not announce yet another forced LTRO, at a time when all of Europe is deleveraging at a record pace.

• U.S. Government Shut Down With No Quick Resolution Seen (BBG)
• 12 House Republicans now say they’d back a ‘clean’ CR (WaPo)
• Republicans’ 2014 Senate Edge Muddied by Shutdown Message (BBG)
• Obama Shortens Asia Trip Due to Government Shutdown (WSJ)
• Fed Said to Review Commodities at Goldman, Morgan Stanley (BBG)
• Foreign Firms Tap U.S. Gas Bonanza (WSJ)
• Behind Standoff, a Broken Process in Need of a Broker (WSJ)
• Japan Awaits Abe’s Third Arrow as Companies Urged to Invest (BBG)
• Microsoft investors push for chairman Gates to step down (Reuters)

If yesterday was the paradoxical government shutdown "relief rally" pushed higher by a last minute VIX smashing ramp, today reality is starting to set in and global stocks and US futures are set to open lower. The FTSE MIB remains the only European bourse to trade in positive territory in today’s session, having touched upon 2 year highs as it is expected the political tumult that threatened to cause a collapse of the Italian government will be resolved today even as the latest news indicate Berlusconi's PDL will support the Bunga godfather after all. Other European equities have failed to benefit from this as market participants remain cautious ahead of the ECB rate decision today when Draghi may or may not (most likely) announce a new LTRO.

A US government shutdown, slumping vehicle sales, Aussie trade deficit double what was expected (and building approvals tumbled), Asian growth expectations being cut, and Japan's monetray base is up 46.1% YoY (versus 42.0% exp.)... Japanese stocks are down over 400 points from the US day session highs, falling for the 4th day in a row (down 4.8% from the highs last week) as the third arrow confusion reigns taking the Nikkei 225 back to 3 week lows. The Rupiah (Indonesia) and Baht (Thailand) are weakening (bucking the 3-day weakness in the USD) and Indonesian (+10bps), Aussie, and Kiwi bonds are leaking higher in yield. In general, AsiaPac equities are holding modest gains but Singapore and Japan are taking it on the chin... S&P futures -5 from day-session highs.

Presented with little comment aside to note that perhaps the House should rename the amendments they propose to "defund" in order to gain a more popular position among the citizenry?

Still three-plus years left in Obama’s presidency, where mediocrity has been elevated to a highly acceptable status.  A good and intelligent man has proven to be an incapable leader, often by making poor choices in the advice received... However, not all has to be lost for Obama; he still has time to reweave a legacy that now appears grey and bleak.  And that reweaving will not be on the domestic front; for the economic future of 80 percent of Americans has already been cast... the slope pointing downward no matter what hopeful lies are manufactured in Washington.  Reweaving, for Obama, should take place at the international front; a great opening has appeared before him partly by chance and partly by what other world leaders have to gain as well.

Everything looked so good in August. Goldman's global leading indicator (GLI) "swirlogram" had recovered quickly from a 'growth scare' in Q1 and was holding firmly in "expansion" territory. Then reality hit as new-orders-less-inventories worsened, various manufacturing surveys rolled over, industrial metals gave up gains, and Korean exports provided no help. Among the few factors holding up the index from already plunging levels was the Baltic Dry Index (which has collapsed now in the last few days) and Consumer Confidence (which appears to also be rolling over). September's plunge into "slowdown" for the GLI is the biggest drop in 8 months.

This morning's media blitz by Carl iCahn - demanding that AAPL's Tim Cook, borrow money cheap, lever-up, and gift it all back to shareholders through buybacks - reminded us of our previous post on the record high levels of leverage in US corporations. To a point, firms can add debt as earnings and equity value increase - leaving leverage and credit risk somewhat constant. However, the last few years, in spite of Maria Bartiromo's constant drivel of cash on the balance sheets, companies have increased debt faster than EBITDA, leverage is at record levels, and credit markets appear to have peaked (as they did in 2007).

One wonders: with 91% of the IRS' total 94,516 workers stuck at home, downloading porn, is the government shutdown really such a bad outcome?

The sad truth is that, based on Gallup survey data, Americans have never trusted other Americans less. Is this the "short" that catalyzed the real trade of the decade - "long gold" - as a hedge for the lies and liars that run the nation...

"It seems to me that if you went to college and took on student debt, there used to be greater assurance that you could pay it off with a good job," sums up one "millennial", adding - sadly - "but now, for people living in this economy and in our age group, it's a rough deal." As WSJ reports, only about a third of adults in their early 20s works full-time - the lowest rate in 40 years - as the combination of structural changes and this recession "is devastating for millennial." Despite think-tanks demanding more of employers in terms of workplace rules and minimum wages, the reality is workers are expected to do more for less and be grateful - "this is a huge problem when think of where demand is going."

Not a segment goes by on today's business media when we have not heard that "Bill Miller says AAPL is a no brainer." Of course, it is no surprise that markets have no memories but to heed the vehement advice of an almost self-proclaimed dip-buyer who told the New York Times that "not understanding the systemic nature" of the market "was his biggest mistake," in the new normal of too-bigger-to-fail banks and ever-longer collateral chains seems risible. As to his confidence, we remind those who care, that on Dec 3rd 2008, Miller said the "bottom has been made" in U.S. equities. Trade accordingly...