Archive - Oct 2013 - Story

As stocks press back towards all-time highs amid a US government shutdown, extreme weakness in earnings pre-announcements, slower-than-expected China growth, Europe's recovery in doubt, and a looming debt-ceiling debate in the US, we look at four 'big picture' charts of dismal divergences that suggest it's not different this time at all...

While over 800,000 furloughed government workers took the bulk of today's "shutdown" hit (even if that means record high traffic and ad revenues for the world's porn websites) in the form of compensation (that is merely delayed) one of the parties impacted by the first government shutdown in 17 years was none other than the Ku Klux Klan. Reuters reports that a KKK rally was one of the first casualties of the U.S. government shutdown on Tuesday when National Parks officials told the white supremacist group the event would have to be canceled. The KKK had been granted a permit for what it dubbed a First Amendment demonstration on Saturday at Gettysburg National Military Park, but park officials said it could not take place because all National Parks have been closed. "Because of the federal government shutdown, Gettysburg National Military Park has rescinded all permits for special events, including the October 5 First Amendment demonstration," the park said in a statement.

To suggest that the United States is not the richest country in the world, or that the government could default, is tantamount to blasphemy. It doesn’t matter that every objective scrap of evidence points to the inevitable conclusion that the US government is going to have to default on its obligations. The hubris and arrogance here is amazing. And it just goes to show that if you just repeat something over and over again, people will believe it... no matter how absurd. This is the basic premise behind propaganda. Start with an idea. Inundate the population through constant repetition. And soon it becomes the unquestionable truth.

Rather than discuss this insanity in the end-of-day note, we though the following charts deserve their own moment in the limelight of algos-gone-wild "momentum ignition" infamy (as we explained here and here). The fun began as usual at 330ET as VIX and EURJPY was employed but clearly with S&P futures stuck at VWAP they needed some help... so with 10 minutes to go in the day, size entered and short-term protection was smashed lower, Dec VIX was sold heavily, and EURJPY (FX carry) bid aggressively... the result - a 9 point almost instantaneous ramp through the entire order stack to close the cash markets at their highs on the day the US government shutdown. As Bart Chilton said - the CFTC is offline - so anyone can bang, pardon monkeyhammer the VIX close; after all it's not a stock.

US Equity markets started green and ended green despite giving back some POMO gains in the afternoon. The Russell 2000 closed at all-time highs with the best day in a month (up over 2% from yesterday's lows)... on the day the US government shutdown for the first time in 17 years. The big news was in commodity-land where gold and silver were smashed early (and silver rebounded somewhat) as were copper and oil. The lunatics had full control into the close as VIX was Heisenberg'd (along with EURJPY) taking the S&P to its highs of the day - totally incredible.

It appears the answer is yes, and the shutdown stretches as far as the White House.

While the recent surge in the Baltic Dry Index was headlined as 'proof' that the global recovery was 'on', China is back, and every retiree should BTFATH, we recently noted, all was not at all it seems on the surface of this data. Fast forward a few days and we have had 2 China PMI misses (notably disappointing relative to their Flash prints) and now the Baltic Dry has plunged by its most in 11 months over the last 4 days. Of course, we've seen these kind of ramps and dumps before in the Baltic Dry - though it is odd that we don't hear the cheerleaders as the price collapses.

We already noted the apparently 'transitory' weakness in GM's numbers and huge surge in channel-stuffing; but now the full numbers are in and it is not pretty. The annualized domestic vehicles sales collapsed (by the most in 29 months) to 11.66 million - it's lowest in 11 months - missing expectations by the most since January 2009. Stone McCarthy offers some hope that this does not signal "peak autos" for this cycle as they note, "it would appear that sales for September were pulled into August due to the extra selling days for August, stemming from the manner in which the Labor Day weekend fell on the calendar this year. Recall that August sales were firmer relative to expectations and now we have September being weaker."

"Obamacare is a disaster," is the jumping-off point for David Stockman's latest tirade against the "greatest expansion to the welfare state in the last 80 years," that was rammed through congress on a totally partisan vote. In this brief Bloomberg TV clip, Stockman "understands why the Republicans are willing to hold up government if they have to," as there is growing intensity of partisanship and resentment that can only bode ill for debt ceiling discussions... "The Republicans have to take a stand."

Update: And another quick rejection: CARNEY SAYS PIECEMEAL APPROACH TO FUNDING GOVT ‘NOT SERIOUS’

If the president was hoping to shame the Republicans into caving and passing a clean Continuing Resolution, by constantly blaming them about the broader government shutdown, he will have to shift his strategy. Moments ago Reuters and other wire services report, citing Republican Peter King, that House Republicans plan to pass three funding bills today to reopen Federal Parks, veteran programs and fund for the District of Columbia. In other words, little by little, the GOP will provide funding for everything... except Obamacare, which they will keep as a trump card up their sleeve until the debt ceiling negotiation comes to a head some time in the next week.

An inept Indian government is attempting to use the age old tactic of scapegoating in order to deflect attention away from its widespread policy failures. In the case of India, the target is gold. It’s a logical target for any crony Indian bureaucrat or Central Banker to go after. Wealth confiscation is a tried and true method historically used by corrupt elites to stay in power, and there is plenty of gold floating around the subcontinent. Easy pickings... or so they thought. It appears some of the temples are now drawing a line in the sand, and are in fact refusing to provide details about their holdings...

Spot the odd 4-week bill auction out...

The first speech by a standing president in 17 years to address a government shut down is certain to be full of sound, fury and lots of blame. Look beyond the traditional platitudes for any mention of the real danger to the US, the debt ceiling, which will hit in just over two weeks and if the shutdown is any indication, the preceding "negotiation" will hardly be smooth and by the numbers. Also, it will finally be disclosed if the teleprompter is a critical government service.

We can safely predict the inevitable budget-debt ceiling deal will spark yet another "the Status Quo is saved" rally in the stock market. But what happens after that?

UPDATE: *ITALY'S LETTA TO CALL CONFIDENCE VOTE: ANSA CITING MINISTER

Italian sovereign bond spreads fell a mere 2bps on the day as Italian stocks (after techncial issues) screamed higher by over 3% - their best day in 3 months - as rumor after headline hit of the slow dissolution of Berlusconi's apparent power. As the confidence vote nears in Italy, several of Berlusconi's top aides are defying him as tries to collapse what is already a fragile coalition. The WSJ just broke news that 40 Italian lawmakers are ready to break with Berlusconi -, and Berlusconi's own party secretary stated that "all should vote for Letta" - that sent stocks to their highs at the close. Despite his anger at center-left senators pending vote to strip him of his Senate seat, it appears the 77-year old media mogul, as AP notes, will be pressured to drop his bid to sabotage PM Letta.