Archive - Nov 13, 2013 - Story

Hunting season is off to a good start this week, and I’m not just talking about deer hunting. It seems that former Fed officials declared open season on their ex-colleagues. First, Andrew Huszar, who once ran the Fed’s mortgage buying operation, let loose in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal. Huszar apologized to all Americans for his role in the toxic QE programs. And then today, the WSJ struck again, this time with an op-ed by former FOMC Governor Kevin Warsh. Warsh is a former Morgan Stanley investment banker whose 2006 to 2011 stint on the FOMC spanned the end of the housing boom and the first few years of “unconventional” policy measures. After such a solid grounding in the ways of the Fed and Wall Street, he recently morphed into a critic of the status quo. His criticisms are welcome and we believe accurate, but they’re also oh so carefully expressed. They’re written with the polite wording and between-the-lines meanings that you might expect from such an establishment figure. He seems to be holding back. So, what does he really want to say?

Of all the screwed up, misallocated parts of the U.S. economy, the housing market continues to be one of the biggest potential train wrecks. While the extent of the insanity in residential real estate should be clear following the peak insanity yesterday, there are other potential problems just on the horizon. One of these was written about over the weekend in the LA Times. In a nutshell, the next several years will start to see principal payments added to interest only payments on a large amount of second mortgages taken out during the boom years. The estimate is that $30 billion in home equity lines will reset next year, $53 billion in 2015, and then ultimately soaring to $111 billion in 2018 - a looming “wave of disaster” because large numbers of borrowers will be unable to handle the higher payments. This will force banks to either foreclose, refinance the borrower or modify their loans.

Earlier today we reported that the Japanese cries of "more QE" have not only started but are getting progressively louder, when after a massive initial surge in the first half of the year following an epic currency dilution, the Nikkei's performance since May has largely been one big dud, which is putting not only the psychological "wealth effect" at risk, but also is tearing Abenomics apart, since perhaps the only key variable for the Prime Minister's plan of "growth" is the constant increase in the stock market, much the same as in the US. But while the market has gone nowhere fast, it is the economy that is truly starting to crack at the seams, as was confirmed hours ago when Japan reported that in the third quarter its economy grew an annualized 1.9%, following a quarter when the GDP grew at more than double that pace or 4.3%, which in turn succeeded a quarter with 3.8% growth. What's worse, in nominal terms, the actual third quarter growth was a paltry 0.4%: the lowest in all of 2013 while actual nominal consumption plunged to the lowest level since just after the start of Abenomics.

Following the FAA's warning that over 7,500 unmanned drones will be in US Airspace in the next five years, we thought news of yet another domestic drone down was noteworthy. Just a couple fo months ago we reported the crash (and self-destruction) of 2 drones in Florida, and now officials at the 174th Attack Wing suspended all Reaper drone flights in Central New York Tuesday after one of the unmanned aircraft crashed into Lake Ontario about 12 miles from the eastern shore during a routine training flight. As WNYF TV reports, the drone - one of four based at Fort Drum - was operated remotely from near Syracuse. Officials are investigating the crash but added, in some hope of reassurance, "the mission was going as advertised, up to the point where we did lose control of the airplane."

Following his inconvenient truthiness yesterday, Andrew Huszar appeared on Bloomberg TV today (having dismissed the comic-book-written discussion he faced in CNBC's Fast Money yesterday). As usual Bloomberg gave him more time to speak, listened, and challenged some of what he said, but we were struck by the man-who-ran-the-Fed's-mortgage-book's points that "we are eerily similar to 2008." Simply out, he implores, "the structure of our economy has not changed," and his apology (on behalf of the Fed), is because the Fed "helped squander an opportunity to see change in America." The fact of the matter, this was folly, "The Fed does not have the ttols to help the economy."

Just in case anyone thought the entire world's wasn't going to the tenth, centrally-planned circle of hell in a handbasket, here comes the head of the Indian FBI to disabuse everyone out of such childish sentiments, thanks to a comment that not even the PR brain trust behind #AskJPM could have conceived. To wit: "India’s top police official was under fire Wednesday for saying, “If you can’t prevent rape, you might as well enjoy it.” And scene.

The notion that the euro area crisis is over has recently been heavily propagated  by EU politicians and the mainstream media. However, it is way too early for such victory laps. Hans-Werner Sinn is perfectly correct in pointing out that the ECB's attempts to restore the 'monetary policy transmission mechanism' by suppressing interest rates in the periphery is going to perpetuate capital malinvestment,delay the necessary reforms and these interventions have actually scared private capital away, as investors require adequate compensation for the risks they are taking. Meanwhile, savers are ultimately paying for this ongoing waste of scarce capital. It is high time that central banking is recognized for the disease it is. Without central banks aiding and abetting credit expansion, this situation would never have arisen. Even a free banking system practicing fractional reserve banking could not possibly have created such a gigantic boom-bust scenario. Money needs to be fully privatized – the State cannot be trusted with it.

Tomorrow's Q&A is cancelled. Bad Idea. Back to the drawing board.

— J.P. Morgan (@jpmorgan) November 14, 2013

Financial innovation is a recurring theme in the NY Fed's review of historic crises. The 1720 South Sea Company structured the national debt in a way that was initially attractive to investors, but the scheme to finance the debt-for-equity swap ultimately proved to be noncredible and the market collapsed. Now fast-forward to 2013 and the five-year anniversary of Lehman's failure. As Fed Governor Jeremy Stein pointed out in a recent speech, a combination of factors such as financial innovation, regulation, and a change in the economic environment, contribute to an overheating of credit markets. So, the NY Fed asks - has the current reach for yield led to ever more complex, leveraged investments and the next credit market bubble? Or will the lessons from the Great Recession last at least a lifetime?

Last month’s US government shutdown – the result of a partisan standoff in congressional budget negotiations – epitomizes the polarization that prevails in modern economic-policy debates. In developed countries, many advocate a greater role for the state, in order to ensure that promised social benefits are delivered to rapidly aging populations. But relegating free-market principles to the past would simply create a new set of imbalances.

Just because very few actually understood the severity of the Cisco earnings guidance, in which the company forecast an 8-10% drop (let's call it 9%) in quarterly revenues when Wall Street was expecting a 4% increase, we have compiled and presented in chart form the historical and projected quarterly revenue data for CSCO to show today's preannouncement in all its gruesome context.

With Janet stealing the limelight, we really don't expect any market-moving fireworks from the lame-duck Bernanke's town hall presentation to US educators this evening. Discussing the Fed's 100-year history and his efforts to bring greater transparency to the central bank's actions, Bernanke will also take questions (which may well be much more interesting than the speech itself). But, to ensure some 'fair-and-balanced' coverage, we offer an alternate history of the Fed's 100-year war against gold (and economic common sense).

You know it's bad when...

With gold down 10 of the last 11 days (until today), Peter Schiff tells CNBC that this temporary downswing is due to "the fantasy of a US recovery," that so many actually believe and thus, due to this 'recovery' the Fed will taper back its quantitative easing. "It's not gonna happen," Schiff explains, "we have a phony recovery," and the Fed will more likely increase the amount of QE in order to sustain it, "which is very bullish for gold." Crucially, Schiff clarifies that he "doesn't think a taper is inevitable," as many believe, "but an end to QE won't happen by the Fed's choice - the market will force them to tread on the brakes as the USD collapses." As we noted earlier, Schiff also believes there is an attempt to do "whatever it takes" to pull the EUR down to maintain the USD - but as today's price action shows, it's not working... "Long-term, the fundamentals have never been better for gold."

On the surface, CSCO's numbers were not terrible: the company only missed its revenue expectation which is fine: after all nobody cares about revenues anymore and the only thing that matters are adjusted, recasted, pro-forma, non-GAAP, made up EPS numbers excluding virtually all COGS, R&D and SG&A items. Just for kicks, CSCO also threw in that last refuge of a company with no growth prospects: yet another massive $15 billion stock buyback. However, in light of the ongoing idiotic hopium that a recovery is just around the corner, as has been the case for the past 5 years always to no avail, what is cratering the company in after hours trading, was its forecast for the next quarter. It was a doozy:

• Q2 EPS was expected to be $0.52. Instead the company lowered the outlook to a range of $0.45-$0.47.
  

But the punchline... wait for it:

• Q2 revenues was expected up 4%. Instead it will be... drumroll... -8 to -10%!

Yup: the company expected an up to a 10% drop in revenues. Welcome to Mr. Yellen's recovery.