Archive - Nov 7, 2013 - Story

With everyone's attention focused on TWTR's release and following this morning's insta-lift from Draghi's surprise, US equity markets are falling fast (led by Nasdaq weakness on moar momo failures) - reverting all the gains and some. While we fully expect more "self-help" declarations as the day wears on, IB has already released a statement that Pink Sheet stock market data will be unavailable until further notice... and that NASDAQ has disable direct routing for TWTR... what a mess...

What inventory boosts give in the current quarter, inventory lack of boosts take from future quarters. At least that is what Goldman's Jan Hatzius just stated in his note summarizing not only the just released Q3 GDP, but his first Q4 tracking forecast, which he cut from 2.0% to 1.5%. To wit: "GDP grew more quickly than expected in Q3, but the surprise came mainly from a larger-than-expected inventory contribution and a smaller-than-expected decline in government spending. Consumer spending and business fixed investment were less strong. Initial jobless claims declined as expected with no special distortions noted by the Labor Department. We started our Q4 GDP tracking estimate at 1.5%."

* * * Update: range now $45.000-$46.0000

It just gets better and better: TRADING RANGE: TWTR (NYSE): 42.0000-46.0000

As a reminder, at $44/share, Twitter's valuation rises to $31 billion!

Another day, another collapse in a measure of the 'peoples' confidence. Despite the animal spirits of euphoric dot-com bubble betting that is the new-normal US equity markets, it seems both rich and poor are not loving it. Bloomberg's consumer comfort index dropped to -37.9 - its lowest since October 2012 having dropped for the 6th week in a row. The last time we saw a collapse of this size, the Fed saved us all with QE3... what this time?

This is what client-facing desks are seeing at various banks across Wall Street right now. One example below:

PLEASE DO NOT ENTER ANY MARKET ORDERS FOR TWTR UNTIL AFTER THE STOCK STARTS TRADING. THESE ORDERS ARE CAUSING A LARGE NUMBER OF REJECTS WHICH MAY DELAY ENTRY OF YOUR ORDER. THANK YOU FOR YOUR CO-OPERATION

Translation: slow down damn it, there will be more than enough shares sold to satsify all demand. Why is there a scramble? Because of this: TRADING RANGE: TWTR (NYSE): 40.0000-44.0000

"I'm buying coz everyone is talking about it..."

The initial ramp-and-revert in gold (and silver) prices gave way to a $20 price collapse once Draghi began speaking - as if someone decided that Draghi's speech was somehow 'credibility-providing' for the status quo... we assume this move is reflective of Draghi's 'dis-inflationary' warnings (though th einitial move seemed sparked by the better-than-expected GDP print - so Taper on?) What the un-reflexive jerk in precious metals fails to see - it would seem - is the need for the European central bank to reflate by whatever means possible that deflationary trend...(even if the Fed slows, it will be back soon enough). Gold futures saw volume explode as he began speaking (and US GDP pronted) but price plunged and volume legged even higher as Draghi mentioned the 'd' word...

A day of fireworks that started with the stunner by Goldman's head of the ECB has just gotten its second wind following the preliminary announcement of Q3 GDP, which roared from 2.5% to 2.84%, far above expectations of a 2.0% annualized number. On the surface this was a bad number for Taper watchers, as it may mean the Fed will actually have to moderate its monthly flow precisely at the time when the ECB was forced to do "whatever it takes" in its fight with inflation, however a quick look at the internals shows that once again there is much more than meets the eye: because while the headline print was the strongest since Q3 2012, the core driver of economic growth, Personal Consumption, grew 1.5% below the expected 1.6%. Specifically, of the 2.84% number, PCE was just 1.04%, the lowest since Q2 2011!

Assuming the last few weeks were useless garbage data and based on the fact that the government claims no states "estimated" data this week, the 5th weekly miss in a row for jobless claims (albeit very minor) has the level reverted to mid-August levels. Notably, extended and emergency benefits rose 65,000 to 1.37 million people.

We noted yesterday that if the EUR got much stronger then peripheral Europe was going to lose much of its 'competitive' gains and while this is a notable surprise to many, we can't wait to hear how Draghi explains the decision given the world's insistence that Europe has turned the corner already... (which it clearly has not).

*DRAGHI SAYS EURO AREA GROWTH RISKS REMAIN `ON THE DOWNSIDE'
*DRAGHI SAYS EURO AREA INFLATION RISKS ARE `BROADLY BALANCED'
*DRAGHI: MARKET CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE FOR ECONOMY
*DRAGHI SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT REMAINS HIGH
*DRAGHI: EURO AREA MAY FACE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW INFLATION

Draghi's 'surprise' rate cut has sent every correlated asset soaring this morning. Aside from the EUR crashing over 150 pips instantaneously, S&P 500 futures snapped 10 points higher to 1775; Treasury yields dropped 3bps; Silver and Copper jerked 0.5% higher (but quickly reverted in the former as the USD strengthened); European equities (especially Spain and Italy) popped 2%; and peripheral bond yields moved to new multi-year lows with spreads dropping 10bps or so. With Draghi now at ZIRP effectively, who's next top pass the easing parcel to (not the Chinese). What is interesting is that US equities, Treasury yields, and commodities are all fading just a little off that kneejerk - even as EUR presses lower.

One momo company that will almost certainly miss out on all of today's Twitter/ECB induced BTFATH-euphoria, is Tesla which is down 3% premarket at last check for one simple reason: the one shown on the photo below. This is the third reported car fire in the past month. So much for that "best safety rating of any car ever tested" - perhaps it really is time to inquire just what the NHTSA kickbacks were in order to go with that "objective" determination?

Perhaps it is not surprising that with the absolute majority of economists and strategists, or 67 of 70, predicting no rate cut by the ECB, this is exactly what the ECB just did, when in a stunning move it cute rates for both the main refi rate and the marginal lending facility by 25 bps, to 0.25% and 0.75% respectively. And there is your reaction to Europe's encroaching deflation. The Euro will need a bigger chart to show just how far it tumbled as a result of the stunner...

Is someone a little bit nervous ahead of the year's most anticipated IPO?

• Twitter's IPO to Make Market Debut (WSJ); Twitter Raises $1.82 Billion, Pricier Value Than Facebook (BBG)
• Worried Senators Press Obama on Health Law (WSJ)
• Greenspan Says Yellen Was His Guide to Economics Research at Fed (BBG)
• European Central Bank seen holding rates despite inflation tumble (Reuters)
• Wall St. Bonuses Over All Are Predicted to Rise 5 to 10% (NYT)
• Cautious consumers seen curbing U.S. economic growth (Reuters)
• China Grants U.S. Investors Indirect Access to Its Stock Markets (WSJ)
• Higher Tax Rates Give Top U.S. Earners Year-End Headaches (BBG)
• Iran Loses Nuclear Leverage as World Ignores Export Drop (BBG)
• NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly in the running for JPMorgan job (Post)