Archive - Nov 2013 - Story

If yesterday's 10 Year auction was a success, today's $16 billion issue of 30 Year paper was poorly received by the market, with the 3.810% yield tailing the 3.796% When Issued, accentuated by a tumble in the Bid To Cover from 2.64 to 2.16, the third lowest in the past 4 years, excluding just the auctions from August of 2011 and 2013 when there was led indicated demand. The internals were less remarkable, with Directs taking down a stronger than average 18.3%, Indirects holding 35.3% of the auction and Dealers left with 46.5% of the auction. Overall, hardly the ringing endorsement in the long-end the Treasury needs.

Discussion of a market bubble (in stocks, credit, bonds, Farm-land, residential real estate, or art) have dominated headlines in recent weeks. However, QEeen Yellen gave us the all-clear this morning that there was "no bubble." Are we currently witnessing a market bubble? It is very possible; however, as STA's Lance Roberts notes, if we are, it will be the first market bubble in history to be seen in advance (despite Bullard's comments in opposition to that "fact"). From a contrarian investment view point, there is simply "too much bubble talk" currently which means that there is likely more irrational excess to come. The lack of "economic success" will likely mean that the Fed remains engaged in its ongoing QE programs for much longer than currently expected - and perhaps Hussman's pre-crash bubble anatomy is dead on...

The soon-to-be-confirmed Mr. Chairwoman had plenty to say - none of which came as a great surprise. Overall we scored her comments 32 Dovish to 18 Hawkish (which fits with all pre-conceved ideas about the size of her index-finger in relation to the 'print' button). A few cherubs include:

• *YELLEN SAYS BENEFITS OF QE STILL EXCEED THE COSTS
• *YELLEN SAYS QE `CANNOT CONTINUE FOREVER'
• *YELLEN DOESN'T SEE ASSET BUBBLE IN HOUSING PRICES
• *YELLEN SAYS QE IS NOT AIMED AT HELPING TO FINANCE U.S. DEFICIT
• *YELLEN: NO ONE HAS A GOOD MODEL ON WHAT INFLUENCES GOLD PRICES

She covered fiscal policy, regulation, gold, income inequality, and bubbles; but it was her admission late in the Q&A that "real" unemployment is around 10%  that perhaps leaves the most room for moar...

Many observers believe the U.S. dollar (USD) will lose its status as the world's reserve currency sooner rather than later. Proponents of this view often mention China's agreements with various trading partners to settle trade in their own currencies rather than the dollar as evidence of this trend. More substantial evidence can be found in the diversification of reserves held by many nations. One set of observers has long held that the ideal replacement for the dollar is a hybrid currency issued by the IMF called SDRs. However, since the SDR is just an aggregate of fiat currencies, it cannot really change the fundamentals of the current status quo. Boiled down to its essence, the SDR is presented as a shortcut solution to deeply seated problems. The reserve currency problem cannot be fixed by a basket of fiat currencies, as fiat currencies (and the trade imbalances they generate) are the problem.

Every day in the New Normal, it is either a mass shooting or an explosion in some pipeline or crude-carrying train. Moments ago, a pipeline in Texas exploded in a massive fireball and has prompted the evacuation of the nearby town of Milford.

Between last night's dismal reality of enrollees in Obamacare, the collapse to record lows of Obama's approval rating, and the growing disillusionment among the President's own party have forced the administration to "fix" Obamacare. As Politico reports, the president’s proposal would allow insurers to offer plans in 2014 that were previously slated to sunset this year, but require the companies to let consumers know how — if at all — their policies don’t comply with the minimum benefits of the Affordable Care Act, according to a source briefed on the proposal. Insurance companies are not amused as risk pools will need to be adjusted. We leave to our policy-changer-in-chief to explain the nuances of this fiasco and why this is not a "fold", not an admission that the law is FUBAR, and not in any way similar to the Tea-Party's suggestion that Obamacare be delayed by one year...

1. The Fed now owns 32.47% of all 10 Year equivalents, up 32.22% from the prior week, and rising at a pace of 0.3% per week.

2. The Fed is now monetizing a record 70% of all net US 10 Year equivalent issuance.

For the benefit of the revisionist media (if there is any media left) once the final asset bubble has popped in a few years time, and which like now will try - incorrectly - to make Yellen appear Oracular in her prophetic "bubble warnings", we would just like to "timestamp" what she just said:

• YELLEN SAYS FED DOESN'T SEE BUILDUP OF FINANCIAL RISKS
• YELLEN SEES LIMITED EVIDENCE OF ‘REACH FOR YIELD’
• YELLEN SAYS FED LOOKS OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL ASSET PRICE BUBBLES
• YELLEN DOESN'T SEE `MISALIGNMENTS' IN ASSET PRICES

So there you have it: No risks, no bubbles, and on the record. Thank you Mr. Chairwoman. And now, you may continue BTFATH.

UPDATE: Gold is slipping back as Yellen notes:

*YELLEN SAYS QE `CANNOT CONTINUE FOREVER'
*YELLEN SAYS FED TAKES RISKS OF QE `VERY SERIOUSLY'

Yesterday was equity markets turn to get all exuberant over Yellen's promises. Today, it is the reality that she will do whatever it takes and her mention of data-dependence and ongoing use of Fed tools that is sending gold (and silver) higher.

Following our earlier preview, we expect the Q&A to have some potential fireworks as the politicians demand she "get to work" as soon as possible. If you are playing buzzword bingo at home - drink if she says "bubble", "depression", "data-dependent", "fiscal", or "screw you Schumer."

Or, in other words, the chart you see here...  it is just a product of your imagination.

It would appear that much of the rally yesterday (and early overnight) was driven by hope (and confirmed relief) that Fed chair nominee Yellen is not about to take on a substantially less-dovish tone in today’s testimony in an effort to garner the support of the more hawkish elements of the Senate Banking Committee. There was a great deal of confirmation bias in the market's move and interpretation but, as BofAML notes below, this may be misplaced. The more important part of today’s testimony is yet to come in the Q&A session - where we will hear likely more unscripted thoughts from the QEeen at her Senate confirmation this morning.

Despite the great shale revolution, US exports posted a $0.4 billion decline to $188.9 billion in October driven by decreases in industrial supplies and materials ($1.3 billion), other goods ($0.2 billion), consumer goods ($0.2 billion), and capital goods ($0.1 billion). This was offset by a $2.7 billion increase in imports to $230.7 billion broken down by increases in industrial supplies and materials ($0.9 billion); automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($0.9 billion); capital goods ($0.8 billion); and consumer goods ($0.6 billion). End result: a September trade balance of $41.8 billion, which was higher than the highest forecast of $41.6 billion among 72 economists queried by Bloomberg, and the highest deficit print in 4 months.

Following the end of the plague of system glitches last week, the Labor Department admits that 5 states estimated levels this week. The initial jobless claims print remains near 4 month-highs (adjusted to for the prior glitch unreality). At 339k vs 330k expected, this is the 6th straight week of disappointment for the 'critical real-time indicator of the economy's health' that some have called this noisy data series. Last week's 'encouraging' print was revised higher from 336 to 341k, we can't wait to see how the 5 estimates affect next week's revision.

Curious where the "hedge fund hotel" is currently located, for both most loved and hated asset classes? The following table shows both the penthouse and the basement of the most recent groupthink, which not surprisingly, indicates that hedge funds, which have simply become highly-levered momentum and beta chasers, are most bullish on the Nasdaq, and offsetting this, are most bearish on 10 Year notes. Of course, since the bulk of the very highly levered marginal cash (for those who haven't seen it, Balyasny's leverage chart is a stunning eye opener) is already deployed, all that remains now is the profit-taking, and as such anyone who wishes to take advantage of the inevitable and recurring hedge fund hotel collapse would be advised to put on a short Nasdaq, long 10Y pair on and await the unraveling.