Archive - Jan 2013 - Story

That even former French president Nicolas Sarakozy plans to start a £1 billion private equity fund in London is not news: courtesy of ZIRP and the ongoing global reliquifiication of markets by every central bank as currency warfare goes ballistic, one would have to be seriously unlucky to chase the central planner inflated beta rally and not succeed (one would also have to be very unaware of the difference between nominal and real returns, but since that is most people these days, let's ignore that). What is news, is that as part of said transfer to the "asset management business" it is none other than the former French president who is next in line to evade Hollande's millionaire tax by crossing the Channel, and "redomiciling" himself in London.

Everyone's favorite bull made another magnificently arrogant appearance on TV this morning. Following his recent CNBC embarrassment, Bloomberg TV interviewed the outperforming hedge fund manager this morning - during which he explained his 'where else ya gonna go' bullish stocks thesis. From expectations for an "explosion of greatness" in the US to his gratuitous flirtation, he appears to have the inane ability to use many words where few are needed and his bullish thesis has the ring of any and every guest pumper (with nothing new to add): the same supposedly 'low' multiple, central-banks-are-printing, and wide spread between bond and equity yield argument that everyone's mom can explain. From expectations for the 'great rotation' from bonds to stocks and his 50%-upside prediction in Citi, Tepper is "balls to the wall" the best guest ever on any stock-touting network. However, one little thing gets in the way - the last time the Great-and-Powerful Tepper appeared so overtly bullish of stocks (and financials specifically), he also was dumping his holdings into the rally that followed.

When it was announced in late November that Goldman's Mark Carney would become head of the BOE (a "shocking" move only Zero Hedge predicted), we said that one has to be insane to be buying the GBP at those levels. Sure enough, it took just two short months before the implications of yet another Goldmanite's pro-inflationary policies would become apparent. To wit:

• KING SAYS BOE IS READY TO PROVIDE MORE STIMULUS IF NEEDED
• KING SAYS QE WAS CRUCIAL IN AVOIDING U.K. DEPRESSION
• KING SAYS U.K. BANKS SOME WAY FROM CONVINCING MARKETS ON SAFETY
• KING SAYS POUND DROP WAS NEEDED FOR U.K. REBALANCING
• KING: U.K. 4Q GDP ALMOST CERTAINLY CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN 3Q

And the punchline:

• KING SAYS REBALANCING NEEDED TO AVOID CURRENCY WARS

In other words, please welcome the UK to the global currency wars.

While the trend has been your friend in US equities for the last few months; the trend in US Macro data has also been consistent - but negative over the last few weeks. Today, for the first time in almost five months (thanks to misses on existing homes and the Richmond Fed) the US Macro index turned negative. In the past this has marked the start of the market's realization that things are not just dipping but are cycling lower. This is also the weakest 'macro' start to a year since the crisis began - and seasonally is prone to become worse not better from here. It seems, however, that the only reality that is required for any prognosticator or commission-taker is that of nominal stock prices (as self-confirming bias creating data) - just as it was in late-2007.

As reported previously, not only are there currently US boots on the ground in the latest geopolitical "anti Al-Qaeda" snafu in Mali, but it turns out a US presence had been secretly in place for many months prior to the recent escalation in French-led hostilities against the western African nation. And while this would likely have opened up numerous media inquiries under any other administration, so far these has been zero interest as to just why the US is "assisting" the French in this latest military deployment of military forces outside of the US: after all, one of the biggest complaints about US spending is that so much of it goes for military purposes (ignoring that all the tax revenues can't even cover just the monthly entitlement spending of the nation). Perhaps one reason is that, at least to date, the general consensus was that since the French operation in Mali is spearheaded and organized by the French, it is also funded by them. As it turns out that is not the case. As Reuters reports, "The U.S. military has flown five C-17 cargo sorties into the Malian capital to help bring a French mechanized infantry unit into the fight against al Qaeda-affiliated militants in the north of the country, Pentagon officials said on Tuesday." But surely the French are paying for these sorties which are there only to help the French, right? Wrong. "Little said the United States had decided not to seek compensation or reimbursement from France for the flights." Luckily, the US is in such a healthy financial position it can afford to not only open one more front in the war against "Al Qaeda", but will sign for the French tab too. With Joe Sixpack's money of course.

The Great Recession had one effect on Americans you don’t hear much about - regular illicit drug use increased by approximately 2.5 million users in 36 months, from 2007 to 2010.  The year 2011 (the most recent data available) saw a slight decline to an estimated 8.7% (from 8.9%) of all Americans regularly using illegal drugs, but, as ConvergEx's Nick Colas notes, this is still 19.5 million people who would find it difficult to pass a pre-employment drug test.  Drug use and testing does not (of course) explain the still high levels of national unemployment on their own.  Issues of cyclical sluggishness and select structural issues still hold the reins here.  But as policymakers struggle to keep the country’s unemployment rate on a downward trajectory, it does seem clear that national drug policy and state-level lawmaking are working at cross-purposes.  With drug use among the unemployed at levels double their full-time employed peers (17% versus 8%), and marijuana use on a solid uptrend, national drug policy and macroeconomic priorities appear to be on different – and conflicting – tracks.

One of the more contentious issues in the past year for America's environmentalists was the (successful) blocking of the Keystone XL pipeline over fears that it would contaminate the Ohallala aquifier in the Sandhill region of Nebraska, a major source of groundwater, and an issue over which none other than the president was quite vocal just about a year ago when he killed the idea. At least that was the pre-spun, socially accepted reason (for the real one read below). It is now time to revisit the fate of this critical pipeline following today's news that the Nebraska governor has approved a new route for the pipeline, one which avoids the most sensitive area in the Sandhills. The response from the opponents has not been late in coming: "Governor Heineman just performed one of the biggest flip-flops that we've in Nebraska political history," said Jane Kleeb, executive director of the group Bold Nebraska. And now it will be up to Obama, whose second inauguration speech had a dedicated segment to clean energy, to kill or let it go through. Since the decision will once again be about politics, the outcome is all but certain, but at least it will provide yet another theatrical sideshow to add to all the others emanating from DC these days. After all it is all about distraction.

It would seem that the only 'asset' that finds the weak macro data this morning and deterioration in European sovereigns as a signal for risk-on is US Equities. While early on VIX gapped higher, it has recoupled in a compress-a-thon dragging stocks to the highs of the day as the USD drifts sideways and Treasuries are bid. Whether equity index strength is the long-AAPL hedgers unwinding (as AAPL is down 2% from its opening levels and sub-$500 once again), we can only stare in amusement at the low-volume liftathon that is exciting all around (especially the energy sector as oil hits 4-month highs).

Think you've made it? Consider yourself the BSD in the room? Well, in Davos, only one thing matters and its about color; the color of your badge. From the holographic awesomeness of the elite badge that enable secret elevators (and handshakes) to the less-than-awesome base colors associated with the press that are both follower and enabler of this event; Bloomberg TV's Erik Schatzker, with his tongue somewhat buried in its cheek, exposes what really matters in Davos among the elite of the elite...

It is refreshing to see that the SEC has taken a much needed break from its daily escapades into midgetporn.xxx and is focusing on what is truly important, such as barring outspoken rating agency Egan-Jones from rating the US and other governments. From the SEC: "EJR and Egan made a settlement offer that the Commission determined to accept. Under the settlement, EJR and Egan agreed to be barred for at least 18 months from rating asset-backed and government securities issuers as an NRSRO. EJR and Egan also agreed to correct the deficiencies found by SEC examiners in 2012, and submit a report – signed by Egan under penalty of perjury — detailing steps the firm has taken." Hopefully the world is no longer insolvent in July of 2014 when this ban runs out.

Better than expected German confidence and another Spanish auction 'success' was not enough to encourage anyone in the real world to step into European risk assets en masse. It seems good is no longer good; sovereign spreads leaked wider to unchanged on the week, corporate and financial credit spreads are far from the exuberance we see in European stocks; and Swiss 2Y rates pushed back into the negative (after a few days respite in the green) as last night's Open-Yended decision by the BoJ saw little risk-on follow-through. Europe's VIX has pushed higher from the middle of yesterday. Of note, perhaps is the opening gap down (catch down to credit) in stocks today that was bid - but credit did not follow. EURUSD is going out slightly lower at 1.33.

Germany and Japan have a long tradition of cooperating, at least when it comes to various iterations of world war, generically in the conventional sense (and where they tend to end up on the less than winning side). Which is why it may come as a surprise to some that earlier today German politician Michael Meister launched what is now the third shot across Japan's bow in what is rapidly escalating as the most dramatic case of global currency warfare between the world's net exporters (at least legacy net exporters: thanks to Japan's recent political snafus, it has now become a net importer as it is rapidly losing the Chinese market which accounts for some 20% of its exports) which started as long ago as 2010 when it was quite clear that currency warfare is what the insolvent world can expect, before it devolves into outright protectionism, and finally regular war as Kyle Bass explained recently. To wit: “What can Japan’s competitors do?” Meister said today in a telephone interview. “Either we’re all smart and do nothing, or we follow suit and create a spiral that hurts us all.”

Two fundamental beliefs have driven economic policy around the world in recent years. The first is that the world suffers from a shortage of aggregate demand relative to supply; the second is that monetary and fiscal stimulus will close the gap. Is it possible that the diagnosis is right, but that the remedy is wrong? That would explain why we have made little headway so far in restoring growth to pre-crisis levels. And it would also indicate that we must rethink our remedies. Policymakers initially resorted to government spending and low interest rates to boost demand. As government debt has ballooned and policy interest rates have hit rock bottom, central banks have focused on increasingly innovative policy to boost demand. Yet growth continues to be painfully slow. Why? What if the problem is the assumption that all demand is created equal? Put differently, the bust that follows years of a debt-fueled boom leaves behind an economy that supplies too much of the wrong kind of good relative to the changed demand.

If we as a nation, buoyed by Obama's Inauguration preach, expect to compete once again on a global jobs stage (as we noted earlier) then perhaps taking a note from the Chinese employers' handbook will wake a few up to new realities. CTV News reports the Chinese workers are revolting as they demand "the scrapping of the ridiculously strict requirements stipulating that workers only have two minutes to go to the toilet and workers will be fined 50 yuan ($8) if they are late once and fired if they are late twice." Hundreds of Chinese factory orders angry at these policies took labor law into their own hands and held their Japanese and Chinese managers hostage for a day and a half before police broke up the strike. Shanghai Shinmei Electric noted the managers were released unharmed after 300 police officers were called to the factory. As CTV notes, strikes have become more commonplace in China, as factories operating in highly competitive markets try to get more productivity from their labor force; but workers connected by mobile phones and the Internet become more aware of their rights.

So much for the latest "recovery." While everyone continued to forget that in the New Normal markets do not reflect the underlying economy in the least, and that the all time highs in the Russell 2000 should indicate that the US economy has never been better, things in reality took a deep dive for the worse, at least according to the Empire State Fed, the Philly Fed, and now the Richmond Fed, all of which missed expectations by a huge margin, and are now deep in contraction territory. Moments ago, the Richmond Fed reported that the Manufacturing Index imploded from a 9 in November, 5 in December and missed expectations of a 5 print at -12: this was the biggest miss to expectations since September 2009.