Archive - Feb 28, 2013 - Story

Initial claims beat expectations but remain in a narrow 'flat' range for the last year. Non-seasonally-adjusted claims dropped notably to their lowest in 5 months. Since January we have seen multiple estimated states and a lot of choppy noise in the initial claims data. Against this choppiness in the main headline data is the swings in Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) benefits which rose 10% or 187k. One thing is for sure, the last two months have seen an unprecedented amount of noise in the claims data that we can only put down to seasonally-affected-disorder (or statistical idiocy with 5 sigma swings the new normal).

From -0.1% to +0.1% (on expectations of a 0.5% print): the Q4 GDP revision was the smallest possible to make it seem that the US economy grew in the fourth quarter. A quick look at the components, however, reveals more of the same, with a small drop in the consumption contribution to GDP (from 1.52% to 1.47%), Fixed investment growing modestly, as well as imports, while the negative components remained roughly in line, with Inventories detracting the most from growth in Q4, or 1.55%. If JCP is any indication, expectations of aggressive inventory restocking in Q1 may be very optimistic. One thing is clear - the general GDP trendline is ugly, and we may now see downward revisions to Q1 growth forecasts in the aftermath of today's number.

Money is not like a commodity; there is no end to it. You don’t have to grow it, find it in the ground, drill for it or plant it in the spring. It is not even that the supply of lumber will curtail the paper for most of it is not printed at all. Made from nothing, recorded on a spreadsheet, sent out across the wires, a digital divinity of man’s own creation. It is a world that none have seen before. It is not Huxley’s “Brave New World” but something far stranger; a financial system cobbled together in counting houses and made from nothing but air. In the last days Bernanke promised that the feeding would continue, Draghi promised a food laden table without end and the Band of Merry Men rejoiced and the gauge of their elevated mood, the markets, responded accordingly and the party continued.

In addition to currency, trade, and disputed islands, Japan can add one more form of covert warfare it is now engaged in with China: atmospheric. We first wrote about the relentless exports of Beijing's toxic smog, which has been migrating in an eastern direction, over the East China Asia, and parking right over downtown Tokyo, nearly a month ago,  but only now has Japan formally responded to what can only be classified as Chinese atmospheric sabotage. According to Japan Times, "Authorities will urge residents to stay indoors if the level of toxic smog spreading to Japan from China is expected to exceed twice the maximum limit set by the central government, officials said." And with Chinese smog overnight already literally off the charts virtually every day, one wonders just what is this great economic reflationary miracle Japan intends on conducting, with everyone ordered to stay indoors or better yet, not breathe? The good news, is that as explained previously, China's inbound toxic air should promptly fix Japan's untenable "top-heavy" demographic situation.

• Grillo kills move to break Italy deadlock (FT)
• Abe nominates Kuroda to run BoJ (FT)
• More WMT bad news: Wal-Mart Chief Administrative Officer Mars to Leave: WSJ (BBG)
• Japan's Abe: Islands Are Indisputably Ours (WSJ) - Except for China of course
• Low-key departure as pope steps down, to enter the final phase of his life "hidden from the world" (Reuters)
• Cuts unlikely to deliver promised budget savings (Reuters)
• European Union caps bankers’ bonuses (FT)
• White House, Republicans dig in ahead of budget talks (Reuters)
• Jockeying Stalls Deal on Cuts (WSJ)
• Argentina Says It Won’t Voluntarily Comply With Bond Ruling (BBG)
• Italian president says forming new government cannot be rushed (Reuters) - or happen at all
• Central Banks Spewing Cash Must Plan Exit Timing, Rohde Says (BBG)
• China Regional Targets Cut in Sign Debt Concerns Heeded (BBG)
• RBA Says Up to 34 Central Banks Holding Australian Dollars (BBG)

It has been yet another quiet overnight session, devoid of the usual EURUSD ramp, and thus ES, at the Europe open (although it is never too late), which has seen the Shangai Composite finally post a meaningful rise up 2.26%, followed by some unremarkable European macro data as Eurozone CPI came as expected at 2.0%, and German unemployment just a tad better, at -3K, with consensus looking for 0K. Italy continues to be the wildcard, with little clarity on just who the now expected grand coalition will consist of. According to Newedge's Jamal Meliani, a base case scenario of Bersani/Berlusconi coalition may see a relief rally, tightening 10Y BTP/bund spread toward 300bps. A coalition would maintain current fiscal agenda and won’t implement any major reforms with fresh elections being     called within a year. A Bersani/Grillo coalition is least likely, may slow reforms which would see 10Y BTP/bund spreads widening to 375bps. Of course, everything is speculation now, with Grillo saying no to any coalition, and moments ago a PD official saying against a broad coalition. But at least the market has it all priced in already - for more see Italy gridlock deepens as Europe watches nervously.