Archive - Feb 2013 - Story

Following November's massive trade deficit surge, when the final print of $48.7 billion was far worse than the $41.3 billion expected, it was only (il)logical that the December trade number would reverse this trend to the other extreme, which it did with the December trade balance plunging from a revised $48.6 billion to a tiny $38.5 billion - the lowest deficit since January 2010, and the biggest beat to expectations of $46 billion since February 2009. The deficit was the result of December exports which were $3.9 billion more than the $182.5 billion in November, and imports some $6.2 billion less than November's total $231.1 billion. Broken down by category, the goods deficit decreased $9.4 billion from November to $56.2 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.7 billion from November to $17.7 billion. A key driver of this move was a spike in Petroleum exports which shrunk the Petroleum product trade gap to the smallest it has been since August 2009 as the US imported the least amount of crude oil since February 1997. Whether this is due to rising domestic production, or just the ongoing collapse in end demand (which is to the US economy as electricity is China's traditional "8%" GDP) remains unclear.

With EURUSD having lost over 2 handles since Draghi began to speak at the press conference, we thought it worth examining just what he did (and did not) say. As Citi's Steven Englander notes, for the ECB it was a twofer.  They can claim they are not engaging in currency wars while giving a big wink and nod on monetary policy ease that says 'sell my currency'.  Yesterday when they said they were not too worried about currency, they didn't mention that they would sound very dovish on liquidity and monetary policy and stress the EUR's level  as a factor in inflation and economic forecasts. So while they did not do the currency war thing, they did the next best thing.

Today (February 8) at 11:00 GMT, the ECB announced the LTRO funds returned to it through the (third) weekly put-back option. Banks repaid €5 bn, bringing the cumulative repayment to €146 bn or 14% of the initial take-up. The cumulative amount of LTRO cash left in the system now stands at €873 bn.

After the now several week old exploding battery fiasco, Boeing is nowhere closer to resolving the recurring problem for its appropriately renamed Nightmareliner. But the worst for the company may be yet ahead: as the following chart from Stone McCarthy shows, January new aircraft orders collapsed from 183 in December to a meaningless 2 in January: a seasonally strong month, with some 150 orders a year ago, and more weakness to come as Boeing just warned its first Norwegian delivery due in April may be delayed. But while it was expected that the company's quality control failure would eventually catch up to it, the broader implication is that this month's Durable Goods number, released February 27 and of which transportation is always a key variable at least at the headline level, will be a disaster.

• Rate-Rig Spotlight Falls on 'Rain Man' (WSJ)
• Blizzard Cancels U.S. Flights, Threatens Snow in New York (BBG)
• Monti says he did not know of bank probes (FT)
• Japan's Aso: yen has weakened more than intended (Reuters)
• Japan Pledges Foreign-Policy Response to Territorial Incursions (BBG)
• Paratroops mutiny in Bamako in blow to Mali security efforts (Reuters)
• China, Japan engage in new invective over disputed isles (Reuters)
• Asteroid to Traverse Earth’s Satellite Zone, NASA Says (BBG)
• EU leaders haggle over budget tightening (FT)
• China Trade Tops Forecasts in Holiday-Distorted Month (Bloomberg)
• Buffett’s Son Says He’s Prepared Whole Life for Berkshire Role (BBG)

It was a busy session for Chinese "data" (more on the laughable validity of Chinese economic releases shortly), after China released January export and import data, which rose 25% and 28.8% from a year ago respectively. Futures were delighted by the data, until someone pointed out that January 2013 had some five more working days than 2012 due to the calendar shift of the Chinese new year, and that adjusted for this effect exports were a far more modest 12.5% while imports rose only 3.4%. Credit growth in January also rose to a record, with aggregate financing of 2.54 trillion, including new local-currency loans of 1.07 trillion, exceeding forecasts, as China dumped gobs of money into the economy, while somehow quite mystrriously inflation came right on top of the expected 2.0%. The Yen soared overnight following comments from Taro Aso who said that the Yen had depreciated too fast. Heading to Europe, the biggest news so far was the latest ECB LTRO repayment which saw some 21 banks repay €4.992 billion, less than the estimated €7.0 billion. Finally, trading today will be slower than usual as Nemo is finally found in the shape of some 12 inches of snow blanketing the Northeast.

It would appear the undecideds had it. The WSJ reports that a proposal to arm Syrian rebels was stalled by the White House (cough Obama cough) because of lingering questions about which rebels could be trusted with the arms, whether the transfers would make a difference in the campaign to remove Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad, and whether the weapons would add to the suffering. It seems, however, that the Pentagon, the State Department, and the CIA were all gung ho for the plan last year as a Senate hearing today uncovered some of the facts (and disagreements). As WSJ notes, the disclosures thrust a spotlight on the extent to which President Barack Obama charts his own course in the face of calls to action by members of his own team, and on the extent of his caution about entering a new conflict. In the post-Kofi Annan talks break-down in June 2012, Hilary pushed to arm the rebels and the CIA said arms would "materially" affect the situation to overthrow Assad. With the introduction of Kerry, Hagel, and Brennan, the tensions may flare once again though only the latter has suggested anything but backing Obama's perspective.

Big round numbers always encourage reflection.  Turning 40 or 50, for example, or making (or losing) a million dollars.  Or a billion.  And so it is with “Dow 14,000.”  ConvergEx's Nick Colas has three critical observations as we traverse this particular “Big round number.”  First, it is clear that equity prices (and volatility, for that matter) are much more a direct tool of central bank policy than in prior economic cycles.  Second, the rally off the bottom in March 2009 has left the investing world with very few money managers who can legitimately claim the title of “Smart money.” Lastly, you have to consider the way forward.  The roadmap from Dow 6600 (March 2009) to Dow 14,000 was – in retrospect – clearly marked by signs labeled “Follow the central bank yellow brick road.”  Good enough signage to get us here, clearly.  But, as Nick notes, fundamentals – corporate earnings, interest rates, and economic growth – those are the metrics which will have to guide us as central banks inevitably reduce their liquidity programs. As he considers the way forward for U.S. stocks, he reflects on Spring 1994 - U.S. stock investors thought they had it all figured out as they exited 1993, just as they do now...

Yesterday we presented a simplistic analysis of why for Japan "This Time Won't Be Different", a preliminary observation so far validated by the just announced Japanese December current account deficit which was not only nearly double the expected 144.2 billion yen, printing at some 264.1 billion yen, but was only the first back-to-back monthly current account deficit since 1985. But perhaps we are wrong and this time Abe will succeed where he, and so many others, have failed before. And, as is now widely understood, perhaps Japan will succeed in finally launching the necessary and sufficient currency war that would be part and parcel of Japans great reflation, as even various G-8 members have recently acknowledged. The question is will it, and when?  One attempt at an answer comes from the fine folks at Bienville Capital who have compiled the definitive pros and cons presentation on what Japan must do, and how it will play out, at least if all goes according to plan.

With Abe picking his new dovish playmate, and Draghi doing his best to jawbone the EUR down without actually saying anything, it is becoming very clear that no matter what level of bullshit histrionics is used by the politicians and bankers in public, the currency wars have begun to gather pace. Japan's more open aggressive policy intervention is the game-changer (and increasingly fascinating how they will talk around it at the upcoming G-20), as if a weaker JPY is an important pillar of the strategy to make this export-oriented economy more competitive again, it brings into the picture something that was missing from earlier interactions among central banks of the advanced economies – competitive depreciation. The last time the world saw a fully fledged currency war was in the early 1930s. Morgan Stanley's Joachim Fels looks at what it was like and what lessons can be drawn for the sequence of events - there are definite winners and losers and a clear first-mover advantage.

The easiest way for a patriotic, civil liberties defending U.S. citizen to know whether to support or oppose an issue is when two of the most authoritative, narcissistic politicians from the two controlled political parties in America are in strong agreement. In this case, I am referring to Lindsay Graham and Barack Obama’s recent love fest on drone warfare...

Asset inflation often produces something called "wealth illusion," the belief that pricier asset holdings necessarily make one permanently richer. Illusions are dangerous. Eventually, painful reality intervenes. The "wealth illusion" of asset inflation is seductive, which is why central banks in charge of a fiat currency and subject to no external disciplines so often drift in that direction. Politicians smile in satisfaction and powerful Washington lobbies cry for more.  But an economy built on an illusion is hardly a sound structure. We may be doomed to learn that lesson once again before long.

While Moody's slipped over 20% when the DoJ announced its cajillion dollar lawsuit against S&P for knowing the crisis was coming but not telling anyone, it later bounced back over 10% as investors believed the non-US-downgrading rating agency (that happened to be owned by Buffett) was too-big-to-jail. After-hours today, Reuters is reporting that the Justice Department and multiple states are discussing also suing Moody's Corp for defrauding investors, according to people familiar with the matter, but any such move will likely wait until a similar lawsuit against rival Standard and Poor's is tested in the courts. The stock is trading down 3% after-hours as sources (not authorized to speak publicly) added "don't think Moody's is off the hook." We can't help but think about the pending sequester-delaying deficit spike as perhaps, to appear impartial, the DoJ will keep the threat of a lawsuit against Moody's alive... during the entire period when the US may and should be downgraded.

Any trader of paper gold and silver will likely never forget the endless and certainly parabolic barrage of margin hikes that the CME imposed in the spring and summer of 2011 which had only one purpose: to break the back of the relentless anti-fiat rally in the precious metals (and which culminated with the historic May 1 take down of silver when the metal plunged some 15% in the span of seconds). Since then, perhaps as a result of initial and maintenance margins still at residual levels indicative of when the S&P was some 30% lower and some $4 trillion less in slushing global central bank liquidity, the upside euphoria in gold and silver has been decidedly hobbled, perhaps so much that the CME is now scrambling to find a whole new set of gullible investors who will obediently put their money in the paper trap, only to see a surge followed by yet another mauling from soaring margin demands. After all, the CME needs trading volume to keep the cash flow flowing - killing the paper market in any one product suits nobody. Sure enough, moments ago, the CME once again cut margins in a slew of products, most notably gold and silver, by some 10% and 14%.