Archive - Feb 2013 - Story

A week after the epic fail of Atlantic City's Revel casino, and in the middle of the gambling 'mecca's rebuilding, the mayor of this always-above-board city has voted himself a $16,000 per annum pay rise; why not, he is entitled, right? Well it seems Chris Christie has a few things to say about that:

*CHRISTIE BLASTS ATLANTIC CITY MAYOR FOR $16,000 PAY RAISE
*CHRISTIE SAYS A.C. GOVERNMENT `GOING DOWN THE CHUTE'
*CHRISTIE SAYS ATLANTIC CITY GOVERNMENT IS `GOD-AWFUL'

Volume remains 'average' but there is one corner of this market that has gone full retard today. Despite rising energy costs, the Dow Transports has surged 3% - thanks in large part to Kansas City Southern, JB Hunt, and Union Pacific which account for more than half the TRAN gains. Presented for your visual adoration, Trannies gone wild...

China has been busy reverse engineering military equipment again, this time of the maritime variety, as it launches its first stealth frigate. Supposedly this will make incidents such as this month's "radar lock" tension over the Senkaku islands a thing of the past, as by the time Chinese boats want to be seen, they will be visible with the naked eye. The only question is whose secret plans were hacked in the procurement of the design plans. From BBC: "China's navy has taken delivery of the first of a new kind of stealth frigate, as tension continues with neighbouring countries over maritime borders. The Type 056 stealth frigate has a sleek design that helps it evade radar detection, and needs just one-third of the crew used by its predecessor." Needless to say, the timing of the launch is "just right", and will serve to underscore China's position on the disputed gas field next to several barren islands in the East China Sea.

Last year was a record one for major new discoveries, and 2013 has so far demonstrated that the road to discovery still has plenty of mileage. The past two months alone have netted new finds in Egypt, a flurry of promising exploration results in East and West Africa, some important moves toward commercial viability in Kenya, more gas in the North Sea, an unexpected junior discovery in Brazil - and of course, more gains in Texas. Riding high on a year of brilliant discoveries, companies are drilling deeper and expanding exploration like never before. These are the top finds for January and February that should be on your radar and sure enough as we have been vociferously discussing, Africa is increasingly the focus of developed nations' resource hunting.

Yesterday Bernanke testified before the Senate: today it is the turn of the House to grandstand. The prepared remarks are the same, but the Q&A will certainly be different, and will focus mostly on political talking points surrounding the sequester, with little to no talk of actual monetary policy. After all, the last thing anyone in Congress wants is the man who provides the deficit funding to pull the punch bowl.

Despite Abe's protestations, it would appear - from WSJ's index of Starbucks coffee prices around the world - that Japan's currency 'value' is similar to the US while it is Mr. Hollande (in France) that has more reason to hope for a currency devaluation in his country. With India and Mexico showing the lowest price for a grande latte (suggesting undervalued currencies), it appears Europeans (from Madrid to Paris to Athens) pay significantly more for a latte than even the New Yorkers. Forget the Big Mac Index, forget Purchasing Power Parity - the Scandinavians are suffering from over-priced currencies and significant divergence from Coffee Price Parity.

The underlying question in Bill Gross' latest monthly letter, built around Jeremy Stein's (in)famous speech earlier this month, is the following: "How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?" He then proceeds to provide a very politically correct answer, which is to be expected for the manager of the world's largest bond fund. Our answer is simpler: We know there is an irrational exuberance asset bubble, because the Fed is still in existence. Far simpler.

As expected, the January Durable Goods was a big miss to expectations, printing at -5.2% on an anticipated plunge in aircraft orders, worse than the expected -4.8%, and a plunge from the downward revised 4.3% in December. However, where there was a glimmer of hope, was the ex-transportation number, which rose modestly from 1.0% to 1.9%, on expectations of a 0.2% flat print. More curious, was the schizophrenic split in Capital Goods Nondefense ex aircraft, notably the Orders, which soared 6.3% on expectations of a 0.0% print, and up from a revised -0.3% in December, versus a drop in Shipments of -1.0%, down from 0.2% previously. As Bloomberg's Joe Brusueals called it, a "classic split decision" reflecting fiscal drag via reduced defense spending, modest gains in core economy.  Bloomberg economist Rich Yamarone added that the decline in shipments of nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft was "not a promising start" for 1Q business investment. We agree, as uncertainty in the US economy is back on the table and adding to European uncertainty.

Today’s big event was Italy's 10% auction. Buyers can’t ignore yield, and we suspect many were “encouraged” to participate. But a decent Italy auction doesn't change the brutal facts. Electoral fall-out blankets the Euro battlefield, but it was decisions made years ago that have brought us to this blasted heath. Markets are caught in... Stalemate. On one side you have the disbelief on the Italy election (although why markets are surprised we cannot fathom) and all that entails about rising uncertainty on the Euro. On the other is the fact buyers need to invest. From there it becomes a debate about whether the Italy election was just another minor stumble that can be glossed over, or is it part of a more significant fundamental shift? We suspect market fears, uncertainty, and the global fundamentals will likely see the Euro crisis reveal itself again in four distinct ways in coming months.

There's a reason why Wall Street is so "beloved" by 99% of the people, and that reason is today best summarized by Jamie Dimon's 'witty' retort to Mike Mayo, perhaps the most hated banking analyst, who asked the JPM CEO a simple question - why affluent customers would not pick UBS over JPM due to a mismatch in capital ratios, to which Dimon's response is even simpler: "that's why I'm richer than you." No logic, no rationale: all about the bottom line, which to Jamie at least is all that matters. As for Mr. Dimon's pending application to purchase a Micronesian private island, we would surmise that the wealth mismatch is far more due to the too big fail banking system which means every time Mr. Dimon uses hundreds of billions in excess deposits to corner the IG9 market or to pursue any other uber-levered venture which blows up in his face even as the firm's highly accurate VaR.xls spreadsheet outputs the RAND() function, the government, also known as JPM's OpCo 1, will rapidly rush to bail him, and his riches, out.

• Italy sold EUR 6.5bln in 5y and 10y BTPs this morning, solid b/c and competitive yields, especially when considering the  uncertain political situation in Italy.
• Moody's also said that Italian election is indirectly credit negative for other pressured EU sovereigns.
• Fears rise that ECB plan has a weakness as the strings in the Eurozone bond buying programme may be its frailty.

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• Wal-Mart's Sales Problem—And America's (WSJ)
• Investors fret that Italy may undermine ECB backstop (Reuters)
• Monti Government Mulls Delaying Monte Paschi Bailout (BBG)
• Norway Faces Liquidity Shock in Record Redemption (BBG)
• ECB's Praet Says Accommodative Policy Could Lose Effectiveness (BBG)
• EU Chiefs Tell Italy There’s No Alternative to Austerity (BBG)
• New Spate of Acrimony in congress As Cuts Loom (WSJ)
• BOE's Tucker hints at radical growth moves (FT)
• Kuroda Seen Getting DPJ Vote for BOJ, Iwata May Be Opposed (BBG)
• Russian Banks Look to Yuan Bond Market (WSJ)
• Dagong warns about rising debt (China Daily)
• Italy Election Impasse Negative for Credit Rating, Moody’s Says (BBG)

With little on the event calendar in the overnight session, the main news many were looking forward to was Italy's auction of €2.5 billion in 5 and €4 billion in 10 year paper, to see just how big the fallout from the Hung Parliament election was in the primary market. As SocGen explained ahead of the auction: "The target of Italy's 2017 and 2023 BTP auction today is a maximum EUR6.5bn, but in order to get to that tidy amount the Tesoro may be forced to offer a hefty mark-up in yield to compensate investors for the extra risk. Note that Italian 6-month bills were marked up at yesterday's sale from 0.731% to 1.237%. Who knows what premium investors will be asking for today for paper with the kind of duration that is not covered by the ECB OMT (should that be activated)? Will Italian institutions, already long BTPs relative to overall asset size, be forced to hoover up most of the supply?" The outcome was a successful auction which, however, as expected saw yields spike with the 4 year paper pricing at 3.59% compared to 2.95% before, while the 10 Year paper priced some 60 bps wider to the 4.17% in January, yielding 4.83%. The result was a brief dip in Italian OTR BTP yield, which have since retraced all gains and are once again trading in the 4.90% range on their way to 5%+ as JPM forecast yesterday. And as expected, talk promptly emerged that the auction was carried by "two large domestic buyers" in other words, the two big local banks merely levered up on Italian paper hoping furiously that they are not the next MF Global.

This is the second of three articles on the suppression of gold. In the first article we showed that, under mainstream economic theory, the suppression of the gold market is not a conspiracy theory, but a logical necessity, a logical outcome. This second article will show how that suppression takes place, and potentially how to protect ourselves from that manipulation.