Archive - Mar 13, 2013 - Story

There was much chatter by the punditry in the early part of 2013, when the Shanghai Composite appeared relentless in its surge, when it was tracking the S&P virtually tick for tick, hitting a 2013 high in mid-February, and which was "explained" to be the prima facie proof of the Chinese rebound. The reason said chatter has disappeared is that as of last night's close, the SHCOMP is now officially red for the year.

In a news release that would have been blamed on delayed tax refunds and "the weather" if it was a miss, but confirms a stronger consumer if it beat, and denies everything Wal Mart was warning about regarding February sales, today's retail sales just came stronger than expected in both the headline print (+1.1%, on expectations of a +0.5% rise), the Ex-Autos (+1.0%, Exp. 0.5%), and the Ex-autos and gas (0.4%, Exp. 0.2%). All of this of course was on a seasonally-adjusted basis (more on this shortly). This was the biggest beat of expectations since October 2011, and the biggest monthly rise in five months. The number was driven by a 5.0% jump in gasoline station sales, a 1.8% increase in Miscellaneous store retailers, a 1.6% rise in non-store retailers and a 1.1% increase in the broad retail and food services category. Declines were noted in Furniture stores (-1.6%), Electronics and Appliance stores (-0.2%), and Sporting goods and music stores (-0.9%). So on the surface all was good. The seasonally adjusted surface. because the unadjusted headline number in February actually posted the first sequential decline since 2010, as retail sales declined from $382.4 billion to $381.0 billion: this was the first sequential decline in retail sales in the month of February in three years. Yet somehow the decline actually translated into a growth of $4.4 billion on an adjusted basis, meaning the entire beat was, once more, purely in the calendar adjustment.

In a preview of an interview he will conduct today with German's Handelsblatt, the surprise winner of last month's Italian elections Beppe Grillo said that Italy is “already de facto” outside the euro and runs the risk of being “dropped” by the region’s wealthiest members as soon as their banks recoup what they invested in the nation’s bonds. His suggestion - the same that got Greece's G-Pap promptle sacked in late 2011 - a popular referendum to decide if Italy should remain in the Eurozone. Grillo's best line, however, was saved for Mario Monti: "he is a bankruptcy trustee on behalf of the banks" which is perhaps the most astute description we have read of the former Goldman operative ever. Still think Grillo is just a simple-minded comic with a penchant for anarchy?

While the media is transfixed with the final figure of floating dead pigs found Shanghai's Huangpu River, which at last check was crossing 6000, a bigger problem has emerged: pig carcasses have now been spotted in a different river, which means that the worst case scenario could be in play. From Shanghai Daily: 'Pig carcasses now found in Hubei river: Around 50 pig carcasses were today discovered in a tributary of the Yangtze River in Yichang City, Hubei Province, China Central Television reported. Some of the bodies were highly decomposed, said the report. The carcasses were spotted floating near Wulong Village. The local government has launched an investigation and dispatched officials to the scene. The news has attracted much public attention as it follows the discovery of thousand of dead pigs in Shanghai's Huangpu River, a branch of the Yangtze. By late yesterday, almost 6,000 pig carcasses had been fished out of the river and an investigation into where they came from is ongoing."

• More black smoke over Vatican: No decision on pope in second day (NBC)
• PBOC Chief Says China Should Be on ‘High Alert’ on Inflation (BBG) - just as predicted last fall
• California Seizes Guns as Owners Lose Right to Keep Arms (BBG)
• U.S. Tax Cheats Picked Off After Adviser Mails It In (BBG)
• In 2012, Samsung spent $401 million advertising its phones in the U.S. to Apple's $333 million (WSJ)
• Coca-Cola probed over mapping in China (FT) - accused of ‘illegally collecting classified information’
• Italy's Bond Sale Meets Tepid Demand (WSJ)
• U.S. Steps Up Alarm Over Cyberattacks (WSJ)
• Mugabe takes on Zimbabwe's Generation X (Reuters)
• Mars Rover Finds Conditions Once May Have Supported Life (BBG)
• Oil demand hit by China refinery outages (FT)
• Big Sugar Is Set for a Sweet Bailout (WSJ) DOA to buy 400,000 tons of sugar to stave off a wave of defaults by sugar processors
• Spectre of stagflation haunts UK (FT)
• As Republicans seek identity, conclave highlights divisions (Reuters)

This is the third day in a row that an attempt to mount an overnight ramp out of the US has fizzled, with first the Nikkei closing down for the second day in a row and snapping a week-long rally, and then the Shanghai Composite following suit with its 5th consecutive drop in a row as the rumblings out of the PBOC on the inflation front get louder and louder, following PBOC governor Zhou's statement that inflation expectations must be stabilized and that great importance must be attached to inflation. Stirring the pot further was SAFE chief Yi Gang who joined the Chinese chorus warning against a currency war, by saying the G20 should avoid competitive currency devaluations. Obviously China is on the edge, and only the US stock market is completely oblivious that the marginal economy may soon force itself to enter outright contraction to offset the G-7 exported hot money keeping China's real estate beyond bubbly. Finally, SocGen released a note last night title "A strong case for easing Korean monetary policy" which confirms that it is only a brief matter of time before the Asian currency war goes thermonuclear. Moving to Europe, it should surprise nobody that the only key data point, Eurozone Industrial Production for January missed badly, printing at -0.4% on expectations of a -0.1% contraction, down from a 0.9% revised print in December as the European recession shows no signs of abating. So while the rest of the world did bad or worse than expected for the third day in a row, it will be up to the POMO and seasonally adjusted retail sales data in the US to offset the ongoing global contraction, and to send the perfectly manipulated Dow Jones to yet another all time high, in direct refutation of logic and every previous market reality ever.