Archive - Mar 7, 2013 - Story

No change, no change. Disappointing some who hoped for more of Zee Stabilitee and less denomination risk as EUR loses 1.30, we suspect Draghi will see this as a non-inflationary positive, pat himself on the back for a job well done, urge the Italians to get it together in his independent way, and hint, promise, jawbone, talk-loudly-and-carry-a-big-stick but do nothing. Chatter is of easing collateral requirements to include used Italian voting slips and old Spanish passports but we will have to see...

The markets are where they are for one reason only, just one, the sea of money that the central banks have poured out across the globe. There is no other reason. Money flows into the corporations, money flows into the markets and the tide rises because it must but it is a House of Cards, a dangerous game that works because there is no place else to go with money and the euphoria, New Year’s Eve at the Big Casino, continues but the price will be high when it all ends and it will end because it is not this or that asset class that is in a bubble but the entire world that is a giant soap bubble that will float until the heat of the sun pops the thing in one ugly mess. I fear that subprime loans, dot.com fantasies, and the S&L crisis will pale when we are done with this party because, my friends, the bill for the festivities must get paid. Watch the hat; the rabbit will be coming out soon.

It is no secret that one of the main reasons why Italy's former PM, and resurgent soon to be member of government, Silvio Berlusconi, is so adamant to be in parliament, is simply to obtain the immunity he would need to stay out of prison as a result of countless lawsuits which he has valiantly fought, and lost. As of this morning, a rather convenient time for sure just as Italy is preparing to create a coalition government, Silvio has one more lawsuit he will need to appeal, and evade in Parliament, following news that he was convicted in a 2006 wiretapping scandal, and will have to serve a one year prison sentence. Will he serve even one day? Of course not - the appeals process alone will take at least several years, and when that runs out, well, the 76 year old Silvio is a billionaire, and will have ample opportunity to spend his money to buy himself enough freedom to last him until the end of his life.

As was largely expected by the sell-side, the ECB kas kept all three key rates unchanged. From the ECB:

At today’s meeting the Governing Council of the ECB decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.75%, 1.50% and 0.00% respectively.

The President of the ECB will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 2.30 p.m. CET today.

It is expected that Draghi will tone down his expectations at the press conference in 45 minutes, although what actual steps he will take as opposed to just talking even more, is unclear. As for JPM, which was alone among those calling for a rate cut, it will promptly pull reality's margin and bankrupt the real world, leading to a new, better world, one in which JPM is the only entity.

• French unemployment rises again to highest since 1999 (Reuters)
• BoJ rejects call for monetary easing (FT)
• North Korea threatens pre-emptive nuclear strike against US (Guardian)
• Firms Race to Raise Cash (WSJ)
• Time Warner Will Split From Magazine Unit in Third Spinoff (BBG) - slideshows, kittens, "all you need to knows" coming to Time
• U.S. economy, world's engine, remains in "neutral": Fed's Fisher (Reuters)
• BOE Keeps QE on Hold as Officials Weigh More Radical Measures (BBG)
• Jobs start to go as US sequestration cuts in (FT)
• BofA Times an Options Trade Well  (WSJ)
• Congress Budget Cuts Damage U.S. Economy Without Aiding Outlook (BBG)
• Dell’s Crafted LBO Pitch Gets Messy as Investors Circle (BBG)
• Dell says Icahn opposes go-private deal (Reuters)
• Portugal Rating Outlook Raised to Stable by S&P on Budget Plan (BBG)
• China’s Richer-Than-Romney Lawmakers Reveal Reform Challenge (BBG)

In today's overnight trading, it was all about Europe (and will be with today's BOE and ECB announcements), where things continue as they have for the past six months: when it is a problem that can be "solved" by throwing bucketloads of money, and/or guaranteeing all risk, things appear to be better, such as today's EUR5.03 billion Spanish bond auction (the 0.03 billion part being quite critical as otherwise how will the authorities indicate the pent up demand by the Spanish retirement fund and various other insolvent ECB-backstopped Spanish banks for Spanish debt). And while events that can be "fixed" with massive liquidity injections are doing better, those other events which rely on reality, and the transfer of liquidity into the real economy, are just getting worse and worse. Sure enough, today we also learned that French unemployment rate just hit a 13 year high. But it wasn't only the French economy that continued to slide into recession: Germany wasn't immune either following "surprising" news that German January Factory Orders tumbled -1.9% M/M on expectations of a 0.6% rise, down from a revised 1.1% in December. The great equalization in Europe continues, as the PIIGS, kept still on artificial life support do everything in their power to drag down the core.

With Europe once more unfixed, its economy mired deep in a double, and in some cases, triple-dip recession, Italian elections leading to many months of political uncertainty (and according to a new Corriere poll, Beppe Grillo now has 28.7% of the vote, his popularity soaring +3.1% since the election, ostensibly making him the biggest party in Italy), the French finmin saying the outlook for Euro area growth outlook is "very worrying" a few hours ago, and otherwise every indication that the European "fixing" has thoroughly failed once more, following the massive miss in German Factory Orders which printed at -1.9% on expectation of a +0.6% January number, many will be looking to today's ECB meeting to see if Draghi will cut European rates further. The EUR has tumbled 700 pips in a month (with Goldman having shorted it all the way on the way up) on fears the Italian may do just that, although the sell-side consensus is less confident. Of all the banks polled, only JPM and to a lesser extent Rabobank believe Draghi will announce another 25 bps cut today. What will Europe do today, and will it proceed to take some of its interest rates negative for the first time ever, proving once and for all its economy is the worst its ever been? Find out in just over an hour.

About a year ago we warned that in a world devoid of bond vigilantes, long emasculated by the Fed's relentless attempt to bring inflation back or go bust trying, the only forces left willing to stand up to Bernanke are the Brent Vigilantes TM, who succeed in crushing every recent reflation attempt whenever Brent reaches $130 or above (and US gas at the pump rises above $3.80) yet which are rather leery and susceptible to the CME's surprise margin-hike counterattacks, and of course China, the same China which every other lemming said last summer would scramble to join the global reflation except for us, as we made it very clear that all hopes of an RRR or interest rate cut are unfounded. Because all the inflation that China (did not) need would be exported to it courtesy of Bernanke and Company's deliberate and now open-ended printing. For a long time China kept its mouth shut, however, when Japan also joined in this pathological central bank pumping, China may have just had enough. As the WSJ reports,"The president of China's giant sovereign-wealth fund warned Japan against using its neighbors as a "garbage bin" by deliberately devaluing the yen, joining growing international griping about a potential currency war."