Archive - Apr 29, 2013 - Story

It was just seven short years ago that the prices at the epicenter of the housing bubble, Los Angeles, CA rose by 50% every six months as the nation experienced its first parabolic move higher in home prices courtesy of Alan Greenspan's disastrous policies: a time when everyone knew intuitively the housing market was in an epic bubble, yet which nobody wanted to pop because there was just too much fun to be had chasing the bouncing ball, not to mention money. Well, courtesy of the real-time real estate pricing trackers at Altos Research, we now know that the very worst of the housing bubble is not only back, but it is at levels not seen since the days when a house in the Inland Empire was only a faint glimmer of the prototype for BitCoin.

In light of the recent violent down-and-up action in the precious metals, the Hard Assets Alliance (HAA) see three effects in the fallout. For starters, demand is off the charts: "We had four to five times as many buy orders and sell orders, both in number of trades and in volume. Far more significant buying than selling, and it’s continued throughout the week." Second, the demand we're seeing is from existing customers who are returning to buy in bigger volume as they see the precious metals as being "on sale" right now. Third, the surge in physical buying combined with tightening supply is resulting in the premium paid over spot price for physical bullion to march upwards quickly. For all of recent memory, the price of precious metals has been determined in the paper marketplace (e.g., COMEX; LBMA). That may now be changing. Should the availability of physical bullion start setting the price action, the spot price quoted in the paper market for gold or silver will become an anachronistic irrelevance.

It's that time again when we cautiously peek at cell H25 of the daily CME Group Metal Depository Statistics worksheet to find if, following Friday's dramatic and volatile trading session in gold, someone, anyone decided to submit a delivery ticket to the JPM vault located at 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, and reduce the already near record low gold inventory which at last check was just over 5 tons, and just one 163K troy ounce delivery request would lead to all commercial gold at the JPM vault to run down to zero. Not this time. As it turns, in a carbon copy of Friday's internal conversion, in which 17.5k ounces of gold were selectively converted from Registered to Eligible status (for all those sticklers about nomenclature definition, this is how easy it is to convert one into the other and vice versa and how meaningless said designations really are), on Friday JPM decided to do some more redefinition, and converted another 4.7k ounces of gold from registered into eligible, pushing up the total by a fractional amount to 163.8k ounces, still just a hair's breath away from the all time record low reported last Thursday.

As Europe continues to churn nowhere but down economically, it seems that leading government officials everywhere have suddenly become fixed income experts. According to these financial wizards, declining yields from Italy and Spain is vindication that (once again) the worst is over. This is the point where we ask investors, government officials, and media to read beyond both the headlines and the first paragraph of investment reports. Just as the declining US unemployment rate is attributed to more and more people simply giving up hope (there’s that “word” again) and not an abundance of new jobs; the decline in sovereign bond yields is the result of domestic banks and pension funds buying new bonds from their respective governments – not an increase in confidence from international investors. While strong domestic demand for a government’s debt is usually a good sign, “forced” demand is not. By any measure the all-in strategy of demostics banks and pension funds investment in their own bonds is epic. Of course, odds are this epic strategy will only end in disaster. The high concentration of investment is embarrassing for whomever is in charge of the fund and is really no different than directly raiding the pension fund assets. This is a shameful act and ultimately someone will have to pay for this Spanish mistake, which naturally leads us to Germany. And, in simple terms, the generosity threshold of the average German is pretty close to being breached.

Wishful thinking now runs so thick and deep across the USA that our hopes for a credible future are being drowned in a tidal wave of yellow smiley-face stories recklessly issued by institutions that ought to know better. A case in point is the Charles C. Mann’s tragically dumb cover story in the current Atlantic magazine - “We Will Never Run Out of Oil” - setting out in great detail the entire panoply of techno-narcissistic “solutions” to our energy predicament. Another case in point was senior financial writer Joe Nocera’s moronic op-ed in last week’s New York Times beating the drum for American “energy independence.” You could call these two examples mendacious if it weren’t so predictable that a desperate society would do everything possible to defend its sunk costs, including the making up of fairy tales to justify its wishes.

Whether it is due to the recent governmental attempt to enforce assorted gun controlling measures in the aftermath of the Newtown, CT shooting, or, merely driven by the same catalyst that saw a surge in gun sales four years ago, namely the presidential election, one thing is certain: America is weaponizing itself at an unheard of pace, with both Sturm, Ruger shipments and units produced surpassing 500,000 each in one quarter for the first time in history.

We recently asked:"are there really unpredictable market shocks or are investors paid not to care? To us, all signs point towards the next currency reset. We think monetary authorities are compulsively destroying the current global monetary system; they simply have no choice if they are to keep it afloat in the short term." With Bernanke not attending Jackson Hole, we think the choice for next Fed Chair may have profound economic implications, and that it would not require expertise in econometric modeling, credit policy management, and maintaining the public perception of economic stability. We think the next Fed Chairman will oversee a conversion of the global monetary regime. Neither growth nor austerity nor gloom of night will stay these currencies from their appointed devaluations. Bank balance sheets must be preserved; ergo sufficient inflation must be manufactured. We think the dull but persistent economic malaise amid increasingly aggressive monetary intervention policies will soon engender fear among the not-so-great washed – net savers. We think all should question whether we are 100% wrong. If not, then prudence dictates some allocation to properly held precious metals. (Presently, it is less than 1% of all global pensions.)

The latest personal income and expenditure report for March was of particularly interesting reading.  However, as opposed to the mainstream headlines that immediately reported that despite higher payroll taxes consumers were still spending, and therefore a sign of a strong economy, it was where they were spending that was most telling. In reality, The personal income and spending report does little to brighten the economic picture. The reality is that we now live in a world where "freely traded markets" are an anachronism and fundamental rules simply no longer apply.  However, the problem is that such actions continually lead to asset bubbles, and eventual busts, that not only impact economic stability but destroy the financial stability of families. The consumer is clearly delivering a message about the state of the real economy.  Eventually, the disconnect between the economy and the markets will merge.  Unfortunately, there is no historical evidence of such reversions being a positive event.

Earlier today we heard unsubstantiated chatter that FBI agents were in front of the house of Katherine Russell in North Kingstown, widow of the dead bombing suspect Tamerlan Tsarnaev. Moments ago we got an explanation for this. The WSJ reports that "investigators have found female DNA on at least one of the bombs used in the Boston Marathon attacks, though they haven't determined whose DNA it is or whether that means a woman helped the two suspects carry out the attacks, according to U.S. officials briefed on the probe. The officials familiar with the case cautioned that there could be multiple explanations for why the DNA of someone other than the two bombing suspects—Tamerlan Tsarnaev and his younger brother, Dzhokhar—could have been found on remnants of the exploded devices. The genetic material could have come, for example, from a store clerk who handled materials used in the bombs or a stray hair that ended up in the bomb."

On the surface, Herbalife's numbers were great. The company reported EPS of $1.27 on expectations of a $1.06 print. The company also boosted its EPS forecast for the full year from a range of $4.45-$4.60 to $4.60-$4.80, putting the Wall Street forecast of $4.66 plainly in the achievable zone. Finally, HLF reported $137MM in cash from operations (compared to $120MM a year ago), which net of CapEx of $24.8MM means Free Cash Flow by that definition of $112.7MM, above the $96MM reported a year earlier. And yet, not even all the cash generated from operations was enough for HLF to fund just its stock buyback in the quarter which amounted to $164.5 million resulting in the Diluted share count plunging from 122.4 million to 108 million. So far so good. There is, however, a "yes but...."

"Off the highs" is perhaps the phrase that the mainstream should be using. The S&P gave up allits post-EU-close gains into the US close. It seems, as we noted earlier, that AAPL capturing its 50DMA, relative strength in VIX and Bonds, and a total lack of volume just could not lift the S&P 500 to new highs. The early short squeeze provided the momentum but that faded into the last hour or so. USD weakness supported the risk rally (as very little else did) and commodities were all higher on the day with the Brent Vigilantes on the prowl once again as WTI topped $94.50 back to near 3-week highs. AAPL's best day in over 3 months (up to its 50DMA) led Tech to lead the day (and the Nasdaq was the notable outperformer). The exuberance led stocks rich relative to all risk-assets and the slide into the close merely corrected to that risk-asset-proxy. JPY carry was not helpful as JPY tried and failed to recover the 98.00 level. Silver outperformed. With the Japanese on vacation last night, JPY's rip into the close is a little worrying for the risk-on crowd but month-End here we come...

Presented with little comment but perhaps it is time to rethink that $100,000 loan and the extended MBA program...

With 40 minutes to go, as the world's media focused intently on all-time new highs in the S&P 500 - following a 20 point rip off pre-market lows, seemingly encouraged by the worst miss in Dallas Fed ever - it seems interest in actually participating is lagging significantly. Today's volume pro-rata on the NYSE and in S&P futures is among the lowest non-holiday day in months. There has been no 'rotation' as Treasuries are modestly bid. VIX is not participating in the surge at all. And the 'shorts' have started to outperform on the day (following the squeze earlier).

Think the revolving door for Morgan Stanley's diaspora of clutch interests goes only from the private sector outward, with the recent appointment of MS' darling Mary Jo White (who will promptly recuse herself in virtually all major cases involved her former clients at Debevoise for years to come) to head the SEC? Think again. Moments ago, Reuters reported that according to a memo sent internally today, Morgan Stanley has hired Michele Davis, "a public relations official and policy director who helped shape the Treasury Department's strategy during the financial crisis, to become global head of corporate affairs, according to a bank memo sent on Monday."

In the past months and right after implementing Quantitative Easing Unlimited Edition, the Fed began surfacing the idea that an exit strategy is at the door. With the latest releases of weak activity data worldwide, the idea was put back in the closet. However, a few analysts have already discussed the implications of the smoothest of all exit strategies: An exit without asset sales; a buy & hold exit. We have no doubt that as soon as allowed, the idea will resurface again. Underlying all official discussions is the notion that an exit strategy is a “stock”, rather than a flow problem, that the Fed can make decisions independently of the fiscal situation of the US and that international coordination can be ignored. This is logically inconsistent as we address below...