Archive - Apr 5, 2013 - Story

Société Générale (“SocGen”) recently published a special report entitled “The end of the gold era” that garnered far more attention than we think it deserved.  The majority of the report focused on SocGen’s “crash scenario” for gold wherein they suggest that gold could fall well below their 2013 target of US$1,375/oz. It also included a classic criticism that we’ve heard so many times before: that the gold price is in “bubble territory”. We have problems with both suggestions.

Courtesy of Nanex, here are several depth of market charts showing how today's NFP number looked like through the eyes of the kneejerk response algos, and how quantized, sub-millisecond jumps in the "market" appear like in a day and age when virtually all the trading done is that by robots. And, oh yes, a statistically "noisy" number, such as today's jobs which is entirely lost in the seasonal adjustment, just somehow manages to wipe out all the market liquidity for what to a robot is an eternity. What happens when the shock is not just statistical noise?

In the aftermath of the Cyprus deposit confiscation, everyone can be excused about feeling a little bit concerned about their deposits held at a European (or any other) bank. Everyone can certainly be excused about feeling concerned about their (rehypothecated) precious metals holdings, Cyprus or not, with any financial counterparty anywhere in the world (because in matters such as those, we don't need Diesel-BOOM to tell us that Executive Order 6102 is "the template"). Recently one reader put two and two together, and in the aftermath of the Zero Hedge expose of JPM's London gold vault and the Cypriot deposit confiscation, decided to express his concern to Blackrock about the safety of his ishares physical gold ETF backed by gold held in the abovementioned vault. To his comfort, Blackrock promptly replied that there is "no risk" (perhaps this too means there is "no plan B"), and that the gold in the vault, unlike the cash in assorted European banks, is safe. Why? Read on...

The last two weeks have not been pretty for the 'it's different this time' crowd. Day after day has brough miss after miss in macro-economic data for the US; from PMIs to NFPs, no matter how hard you try, there is not even enough for an 'anecdotal' strategist to pin his BTFD thesis on. Quantitatively, the US macro surprise index has seen its biggest 10-day drop in 10 months, completely reversing all the 'seasonally-adjusted' difference from the 2011 'Deja-Vu' market and macro behavior. So with the first pillar of bullishness (macro data is 'supportive'), it is up to earnings (but but but profitability is at highs) to hold up the market - good luck with that.

One really wonders why people have lately sold gold. It seems to make little sense in light of the widespread mainstream views on what the 'correct' monetary policy should consist of. Monetary cranks abound wherever one looks. The ultimate outcome of all this inflationary experimentation is preordained, so people have every reason to be very concerned about preserving the value their assets. Of course we are well aware that markets can often behave in an irrational manner for extended time periods. In fact, this is what allows astute speculators and investors to make profitable trades, as there are frequently opportunities created by the markets getting it wrong. In this particular case it is still astonishing, considering how blindingly obvious it is in which direction things are currently moving. Mr. Woodford wants to 'scare the horses'. We are wondering why they are not scared yet – but we suspect they will be soon enough.

First the US fanfared the placement of two F-22 Raptors in the Osan airbase of South Korea. Then it demonstratively launched a B-2 stealth bomber on a training mission over a South Korean gunnery range. Then it deployed an anti-ballistic missile defense system to Guam and positioned two guided-missile destroyers in the waters near Korea. And now, courtesy of the Aviationist, we learn that the Pentagon has escalated once more in an ongoing cat and mouse game with North Korea, of who blinks first, and dispatched several B-1 ("Bone") Lancer strategic long-range bombers to Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. What is different this time, however, is that unlike the previous very public and widely trumpeted reciprocal escalation steps, this particular deployment has been kept secret from the public (at least the broader public), "a fact that could be the sign that the U.S. is not only making symbolic moves (as the above mentioned ones), but it is preparing for the worst scenario: an attack on North Korea."

Presented with little comment aside to note the constant gibberish spewed forth from various media channels that stocks-are-cheap when in a ZIRP environment - that has never been experienced before (though low rates typically indicate lower multiples) -  more stocks than ever before are 'expensive' on a price to forward-earnings basis...

Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week...

Fewer jobs, BTFD; Bond yields at 5-month lows, BTFD; Macro data collapsing, BTFD; earning season straight ahead, BTFD. US equities dumped in the pre-open on huge volume as the NFP data hit and disappointed with not even Steve Liesman able to find a silver lining, but we wriggled higher after the US open and briefly topped out at the European close - all amid extremely low volume. Then things went quiet, too quiet; until the dreaded witching 30 minutes. Volume disappeared to trickle and at 1530ET to the dot, the magical levitation fairy took us on her wings made of bull's scrotums and smashed stops to pull S&P futures (and thusly the rest of the market) up 10 points. Although we closed red - making it 13 days in a row of down-up now (an all-time record of prevarication) - all asunder declared victory for the bulls and declared that this 'market' shows that everyone just wants to buy those dips. Meanwhile, EURJPY exploded (JPY lost 5% against the USD in the last 36 hours); Treasury yields collapsed - not participating in the jerk higher in stocks; Silver and Oil recoupled (again) to close -4.2% on the week; Gold ended -1.2% at $1580 (notably off its lows); and while high-beta sectors recovered Utes and Healthcare won the week. The Dow, in all its might, closed above pre-Cyprus levels (just).

It appears the Portuguese PM's threats last week that he would resign if the constitutional court rules against the various austerity measures in the proposed 2013 budget (subsequently recanted because he may have just sensed which way the winds are blowing), were not enough to pressure the court into voting the way the German rulers of the Eurozone demanded, because moments ago the high court said that some budget elements are unconstitutional.Specifically it said that:

• Article 29 and
• Article 77

are not constitutional. Of course, trampling the constitution in Europe's insolvent vassal fiefdoms is nothing new. Recall that its the Central Bank of Cyprus that said deposit confiscation is just that: unconstitutional. Too bad that didn't stop anyone from trampling all over the laws and rules of the land in the namd of what? Lots and lots of political capital of course, that nobody, NOBODY, should underestimate.

If the economy is getting better, then why does poverty in America continue to grow so rapidly?  Yes, the stock market has been hitting all-time highs recently, but also the number of Americans living in poverty has now reached a level not seen since the 1960s.  Yes, corporate profits are at levels never seen before, but so is the number of Americans on food stamps.  Yes, housing prices have started to rebound a little bit (especially in wealthy areas), but there are also more than a million public school students in America that are homeless.  That is the first time that has ever happened in U.S. history. So should we measure our economic progress by the false stock market bubble that has been inflated by Ben Bernanke's reckless money printing, or should we measure our economic progress by how the poor and the middle class are doing?  Because if we look at how average Americans are doing these days, then there is not much to be excited about. Unfortunately, that bubble of false hope is not going to last much longer.  In fact, we are already seeing signs that it is getting ready to burst.

The releveraging deleveraging continues. While US consumers barely dare to touch their credit cards, as they did in February when just $533 million in revolving consumer credit was added, they continue to take advantage of Federal largesse to take out student and car loans for the maximum amount possible, and as expected in February of the $18.1 billion in total credit taken out, a whopping 97% was non-revolving, or mostly student and GM loans (recall that now one can "finance" a car using their shotgun as collateral). To show just how dramatic the shift toward Uncle Sam as bank of only recourse for the US consumer has become, consider that in the past 12 months, of the $158.8 billion in total consumer credit issued, just $6 billion is credit card based. The remainder: debt that will never be repaid because those who take it out use it to finance such things as their education in vocational school (and iPads, tattoos, lap dances, semiautomatic guns and booze of course), as well as various GM cars that amortise by about 100% the second they are driven off the car lot.

Yesterday we reported that the conclusion of the MF Global Trustee's 124 page report is that the collapse of MF Global, and the illegal commingling of billions in customer funds which may or may not have been recovered yet from JPMorgan and others, was all Jon Corzine's fault. Of course, courtesy of his special rank in the Obama administration, Corzine will never go to jail: after all justice in the crony states of America is only for the little people - those who don't bundle millions for the president, and those who don't run Too Big To Prosecute banks, or both at the same time, get a get out of jail card (literally). So if he isn't in minimum security prison, where on earth is Mr. Corzine to be found these days? The WSJ answers.

For six months the Japanese jawboning has seen investors front-running the BoJ, selling JPY and buying whatever risk-asset is the most correlated that day - whether it is the Nikkei 225 or the S&P 500. However, now that words have been replaced by actions, it appears that someone (cough Japanese institutions cough) has decided the 13.4-sigma swing in JGBs last night is just too much and have rotated to US Treasuries. The selling of JPY and buying of EUR (to fund peripheral bond buying) and USD (to fund Treasury buying) is very clear. That means, implicitly, that every ramp higher in JPY (weaker JPY) is simply more bond-buying - which leaves the algos directionless.