Archive - Apr 9, 2013 - Story

Curious why the Dow Jones just hit new all time highs? Here's a partial list of recent economic events:

• Markit US PMI    Miss
• ISM Manufacturing    Miss
• ISM New York    Miss
• Vehicle Sales    Miss
• ADP Employment    Miss
• ISM Services    Miss
• Challenger Job Cuts     Miss
• Initial Claims    Miss
• Trade Balance    Beat
• Non-Farm Payrolls    Miss
• Hourly Earnings    Miss
• NFIB Small Business    Miss
• Wholesale Inventories    Miss

A few days ago, Bloomberg released an article in which it described the lamentations emanating from the Primary Dealers whose role in bond purchases is being increasingly undercut by Direct bidders who get to buy US paper directly from the Treasury and without Dealer intermediation. Well, no such worries in today's just concluded $32 billion auction of 3 Year paper, which closed moments ago at a high yield of 0.342%, the lowest "high yield" in 2013 and a Bid To Cover of 3.238, the lowest since September 2011. But what was most notable is that the combined take down of Directs and Indirects was a tiny 35.1%: the lowest non Dealer interest since January 2009. Naturally, the Dealer take down was the inverse or 64.9%, which also was the largest since January 2009. Obviously all this paper will be promptly sold back to the Fed, but any artificial (and inaccurate) concerns that Dealers are not getting their due allocation of paper can now be put to rest.

While the 2012 Deja-Vu chart analog continues to play out in far too similarly scary manner than many had believed possible, a glance at the catalysts over the two months that form the 'tops' should also send a shiver down the spine of the momentum believers. In 2012, the first dip was the Greek default and restructuring (a Europe-based crisis risk flare); that dip was bought (of course) as "the worst is behind us," only to see a miss in US non-farm payrolls confirm the "it's different this time," hopers were wrong once again. In 2013, the Italian election created a Europe crisis risk-flare, which was bought (of course) as "the ECB has our back", and then a month later, the non-farm payroll prints at a dismal level. For now, we remain hopefully bid on a sea of central bank liquidity (just as we were in 2012 thanks to ECB's LTROs) but what happens when 'markets' realize the hole is bigger than the central banks can fill?

Despite the mainstream analysts' calls for a "great rotation" by investors from bonds to stocks - the reality has been quite the opposite.  While the 10-year treasury rate rose from the recessionary lows signaling some economic recovery in 2009; the decline in rates coincided with the evident peak in economic growth for the current cycle that begin in earnest in 2012 - "With rates plunging in recent weeks the indictment from the bond market concurs with the longer term data that the economy remains at risk." Despite the calls for the end of the "bond bubble" the current decline in interest rates are suggesting that the real risk is to the economy.  The aggressive monetary intervention programs by the Federal Reserve, along with the ECB and BOJ, continue to support the financial markets but are gaining little traction within the real economy. Of course, this is likely why the current quantitative easing program is "open-ended" because the Fed has finally realized that there is no escape.   The next economic crisis is coming - the only questions are "when" and "what causes it?"  The problem is that next time - monetary policy might not save investors.

A few hours ago, a major 6.1 magnitude quake struck in Iran once again, some 100 km away from Bushehr - location of Iran's only nuclear power plant. According to subsequent reports, at least 30 people have been killed and nearly 600 injured, although at least for now the official version is that the power plan was undamaged. From Al Jazeera: "Fereydoon Hasanvand, governor of Bushehr, said the nuclear plant was undamaged by Tuesday's earthquake. "No damage at all has been caused" to the plant, he told state television. The Russian company that built the nuclear-power station, 18km south of Bushehr, said the quake had been felt there but that operations at the plant were not affected. "The earthquake in no way affected the normal situation at the reactor." Of course, as TEPCO and Japan so vividly and glowingly in the dark demonstrated, when it comes to nuclear power plants, the last thing to be released, long after the alpha, beta and gamma rays, is the truth. We doubt this time would be any different.

Wondering why the Italian bond market has been stable and "improving" in recent months, with yields relentlessly dropping as a mysterious bidder keeps waving it all in despite the complete political void in the government and what may be months of uncertainty for the country, and despite both PIMCO and BlackRock recently announcing they are taking a pass on the blue light special offered by BTPs? Simple. As the Bank of Italy reported earlier today, total holdings of Italian bonds by Italian banks hit an all time record of €351.6 billion in February.

Herbalife (NYSE: HLF) today announced that KPMG LLP notified Herbalife on April 8, 2013 that KPMG was resigning, effective immediately, as Herbalife's independent accountant. KPMG stated it had concluded it was not independent because of alleged insider trading in Herbalife's securities by one of KPMG’s former partners who, until April 5, 2013, was the KPMG engagement partner on Herbalife's audit. KPMG advised the Company it resigned as Herbalife's independent accountant solely due to the impairment of KPMG's independence resulting from its now former partner’s alleged unlawful activities and not for any reason related to Herbalife's financial statements, its accounting practices, the integrity of Herbalife's management or for any other reason....at no point during the three fiscal years ended December 31, 2012 and the subsequent interim period through April 8, 2013 were there any (1) disagreements with KPMG on any matter of accounting principles or practices, financial statement disclosure or auditing scope or procedures, which disagreement(s), if not resolved to the satisfaction of KPMG, would have caused it to make reference to the subject matter of the disagreement(s) in connection with its reports, or (2) “reportable events” as such term is defined in Item 304(a)(1)(v) of Regulation S-K.

France is engulfed by a political, economic and moral paralysis. The president has record low popularity, unemployment is making new highs and the tax czar of a supposedly left wing government just quit after repeatedly lying about a pile of cash he had stashed in a Swiss bank account. From such a sorry state of affairs, you might think that things could only get only get better. Unfortunately, economic cycles do not work this way and it is my contention that France is about to enter what was known during the gold standard era as a “secondary depression.” The rigid design of the euro system means the whole eurozone is prone to the kind of brutal cyclical adjustments seen in that hard money era of the 19th and early 20th centuries. But having reached the logical limits of its decades long experiment in state-run welfare-capitalism France is far more exposed than even its struggling neighbors. Until quite recently, our working assumption was that a full-blown French debt crisis would occur between 2014 and 2017. In light of the extraordinary malfeasance of the current government we have changed our mind and believe that France is now extremely near to that abyss. Fasten your seat belt in Europe - the world’s last truly Communist country is about to implode.

"Governments are good at creating work, but they are not good at creating value-generating jobs," is the conclusion from this insightful 3-minute clip from Professor Steve Horwitz. Too often the jobs that politicians 'create' are simply to their own benefit. Critically, Horwitz explains that transitions (from agriculture to manufacturing to service to information for instance) are temporarily painful but relatively quickly re-allocated. If, however, politicians attempt to prevent this transition - to stall the free market's signals - this will halt innovation, growth, and create more poverty (ring any bells). Creating meaningful valuable jobs (something we saw earlier today is not occurring) does not appear too complex - "the best job-creation program in human history is the free market and the entrepreneurship it generates" - it simply means our politicians must get out of the way.

Moments before the open, HLF stock, of the infamous Ackman-Icahn spat, was halted for trading with news pending. Rumors quickly spread that this was due to Icahn pushing to add insult to injury and either tendering for the company, or LBOing it outright. Then moments ago, NYT's DealBook reported that this is due to a KPMG resignation over an investigation, which immediately was assumed by the other camp to imply a fault with HLF's books. Yet, as we reported in the frontrunning post (and tweeted subsequently), the resignation may have nothing to do at all with Herbalife and everything to do with a KPMG partner leaking inside info, and totally unrelated to any improprieties at HLF.

Here is a short quiz for you. Ready?

• What’s the current situation with Lindsay Lohan’s rehab?
• Who won the latest “Dancing With the Stars”?
• Name five celebrities with “baby bumps.”
• Explain how the Cypriot banking crisis could impact the European economy.

If you answered the first three questions but are clueless on the fourth, you’re in good company. Estimates are that up to half the population in America is ignorant about the situation in Cyprus. Oh sure, they hear snippets on the evening news, but since it’s far away and happening to other people, they don’t worry about it. There are many people who just can’t “see” anything wrong with our country. People continue to cling to the notion that our leaders are working for us, not for themselves. So people sit on their butts watching “American Idol” or reading about celebrity baby bumps. Can the U.S. economy crash? Nah. It can’t happen here.

While the dominant flow of policy action from the Japanese has, until last week, been of the jawboning variety, the actual selling pressure on the rapidly devaluing currency has come from foreign sources. As the following chart shows, the last few months have seen not Mrs Watanabe (euphemistically selling her JPY to find better returns elsewhere) but the likes of Mr. Soros and Mr. Bass who see the endgame disorderly collapse of a currency (or perhaps it is the rest of the G7 central bankers unwinding JPY-based reserves to 'help' their fellow central planner out). The bulk of JPY selling pressure has come during non-Tokyo trading hours, as the Japanese, until last week at least, appear much more timid about Abenomics' chances of success.

April 5th, 1933, FDR confiscated every gold coin, bar, or certificate and people had to turn in their gold to the Federal Government or else they would face a fine of $10,000 or 10 years in jail. That is about $179,000 in today’s money.  You were able to keep a small amount or some rare coins and those that did give up their gold received about $20/oz.  “Why would the government do that?” asks Ms. Steel.  They did this for the following reasons:

1. To prevent hoarding.
2. To devalue the dollar during the Great Depression.
3. The government set the gold price at $35/oz and pegged it to the dollar.

“But this could never happen again, right?” asks Ms. Steel. “Well tell that to Texas.” 

In a shocking state of affairs, it would appear the stock market's wealth effect is not rubbing off on the real economy. The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) shows 0% of their members planning to hire. One can only presume we need moar QE, moar deficits, and moar wealth effect.

Need yet another confirmation showing the US consumer has entered a phase of terminal retrenchment (in addition to all the other ones of course)? Below is a chart of Casino gaming spending in the past 15 years. What the chart shows is quite clear: at a drop of 4.3% Y/Y, far below the cyclical rises in 2011 and 2012, discretionary spending allocated for proceeds one can "afford to lose" is back to Great Recession levels, and sliding lower. As Bloomberg Brief summarizes, Gary Loveman, CEO for Caesars Entertainment, said the company felt the impact of curtailed consumer discretionary spending in their most recent quarterly results. Loveman noted that his company’s strategy was implemented “against the backdrop of ongoing uncertainty in the macroeconomic picture in this country and consumer weakness in the U.S. economy that negatively affected discretionary consumer spending and ultimately our gaming results." On the other hand, with most of the gambling these days taking place in your retail brokerage screen with bets on when the Fed's record high house of superglued cards finally comes tumbling down, perhaps consumers have merely changed their definition of gambling. It was once known as "investing."