Archive - May 29, 2013 - Story

There is a simple mnemonic for the Keynesian world: credit creation = growth. More importantly, no credit creation = no growth. And that, in a nutshell is the entire problem with Europe.

These are not easy times for the global bond market. We’re looking at US Treasuries market (more below), and reckon this morning’s 10-yr spike to 2.23 is only the start. We could see more aggressive price declines as the curve steepens further. It’s only partly based on the better economic outlook and fears of the QE Taper. Japan banks will be among the biggest sellers due to the volatility and “death by carry”. Forget the stories Japan banks were buyers at the wides.. that’s wishful thinking from Treasury holders long and wrong on the US bond market. Unfortunately, each passing day sees the BoJ's credibility chipped away.

Moments ago, the following European Commission website hit the interwebs, which can be summarized as follows:

• EU EXTENDS DEFICIT DEADLINE FOR PORTUGAL TO 2015
• EU EXTENDS DEFICIT DEADLINE FOR NETHERLANDS TO 2014
• EU EXTENDS DEFICIT DEADLINE FOR SPAIN UNTIL 2016
• EU RECOMMENDS LIFTING EXCESSIVE-DEFICIT REGIME FOR ITALY
• EU SAYS 20 STATES CURRENTLY UNDER EXCESSIVE-DEFICIT PROCEDURES

Translation: the theatrical spectacle of Europe's austerity, which never really took place, is finally over. Going forward political incompetence will henceforth be known as just that: incompetence, and elected rulers will not be able to pass the buck to evil, evil, "austerity." More importantly, Europe has also proven without a doubt, that any "structural adjustments" on the continent are impossible, and that governments are locked in a spend till you drop mode.

How do you "extract" shareholder value when everyone and their grandmother knows you are one of the sole public proxies of an epic student loan bubble? You firewall its nearly $160 billion student loan portfolio (including Federal and Private) portfolio and associated origination and servicing exposure in its own public company and spin off the remainder as a separate "consumer banking" company. That is what Sallie Mae has just done.

• South China Sea tension mounts near Filipino shipwreck (Reuters)
• OECD cuts economic forecasts as eurozone drags on growth (FT)
• Switzerland frees banks to settle U.S. tax evasion cases (Reuters)
• U.S. Says Firm Laundered Billions (WSJ)... no, it's not HSBC, also: Free Corzine!
• Ardent conservative Bachmann to not seek re-election to Congress (Reuters)
• Russia faults U.S. over 'odious' Syria rights resolution (Reuters)

Moments ago, news broke that in a stunning M&A move, an American pork icon - Smithfield Foods, may be acquired as soon as today by China's Shuanghui, also known as Shineway, which is China's largest pork producer. The Chinese are coming, and they want America's pork. It unclear how soon after the deal gets clearance by the Committee on Foreign Investment (if it does at all) will the US be subject to that well-honored China excess pig "clearance" strategy: floating 'em down the river.

This morning market participants turn on their trading terminals to see an unfamiliar shade of green: red.

Following yesterday's blow out in US bond yields, which have continued to leak wider and are now at 2.20% after touching 2.23%,  the overnight Japanese trading session was relatively tame, with the 10Y JGB closing just modestly wider at 0.93%, following the market stabilization due to a substantial JPY1 trillion JOMO operation which also meant barely any change to the NKY225, while the USDJPY slipped in overnight trading below the 102 support line and was trading in the mid 101s as of this moment, pulling all risk classes lower with it. There was no immediate catalyst for the sharp slide around 3am Eastern, although there was the usual plethora of weak economic data.