Archive - May 9, 2013 - Story

"Is it healthy that the default/insolvency cycle is being sedated in so many large economies? Surely the financial system and life in general has prospered through history on the basis of creative destruction. Indeed all the good looking and intelligent readers of this note are products of survival of the fittest. Economic growth over time is helped by a regular cleansing. So are low defaults helping to lock in low growth for years to come across many large economies? Clearly there are other factors at work here but we think that what's great for credit investors isn't necessarily good for the global economy. A bit of a paradox. We would stress that we fully understand why the authorities wouldn't want free markets to operate today as the risk of a huge global default and unemployment cycle would still be very high. However their intervention has a cost in our opinion."

There was no surprise in today's Initial Claims data, which continued the downward trend seen in recent months (despite the data seen in the most recent JOLTS survey which was hardly as optimistic on recent labor trends as the NFP number of the weekly claims data), with the headline number dropping to 323K, down from an upward revised 327K, and below the expected 335K print. On the surface, and at least to algos, this continues to be good news. The question remains whether the improving claim trend is due to fewer layoffs, or a lower marginal detachment workforce due to the labor force participation rate which was at 33 year lows for the second month in a low. At this point any additional substantial drops below the 300,000 range will likely mean a major distortion in the labor force as this is where claims numbers were at a time when the economy was actually strong, as opposed to the current liquified stock-market manipulated sham.

It is rather like sitting in the middle of the desert. We have $100 billion of new sand being pumped in by the Fed each month. Our desert doesn't get much wider as defined by new issuance and so one dune is heaped on another, the compression continues and yields, even from here, will decline. Our sand trap is a fabulous world for borrowers and issuers and a miserable world for investors. The general thinking usually stops here but there is more to this story than that. Over a period of time wealth declines as the bonds markets hold five times the assets of the equity markets and so the lack of yield, of income, begins to take its toll on consumer spending, on corporate revenues and then on profits and on the ability of those dependent of savings to maintain their standard of living. The continual flow of money has helped the banks and helped corporate borrowers but it has not filtered down to the savers and, in fact, their position has been lessened by what the Fed has done.

The Greek economic depressionary catastrophe continues to merrily chug along. Hours ago, Greek Elstat reported that February unemployment rose to a new record high of 27.0%, with the January number revised from 27.2% to 26.7%, up from 21.9% in February 2012, and almost as if unlike the Greek BLS is not even trying to fudge numbers anymore and wants to show a deteriorating situation (or, as it was called in the Old Normal - "reality"). Looking at the Shadow economy, the number of people who are inactive, or "neither worked neither looked for a job", hit 3,358,649. This number is just shy of the total people employed, meaning in 2-3 months, the Greek shadow economy will be greater than the official, taxed-one. A gender breakdown shows that females have never had it worse with 31% unemployment, compared to 24.1% for men. But the most stunning number was the number of unemployed Greek youths (15-24), which hit a record 64.2%, the highest number on record, and a mindblowing 5% increase from the 59.3% youth unemployment reported in January, and a 10% increase from a year ago.

• Einhorn's advice to investors: don't take my advice (Reuters)
• Next: floating dead vegetables: Chinese inflation rises on soaring vegetable prices (FT)
• The scramble for the bottom dollar is on: McDonald's, Wendy's Battle for Value-Centric Customers (WSJ)
• Cheaper iPhone coming after all: Apple supplier Pegatron boosts China workforce by 40 percent in second quarter (Reuters)
• House set to pass tactical Republican debt bill (Reuters)
• Underwriting bonanza: Goldman Said to Earn $500 Million Arranging Malaysia Bond (BBG)
• G7 finance chiefs to discuss bank reform push (Reuters)
• Big Banks Push Back Against Tighter Rules (WSJ)
• University endowments trim holdings in US Treasuries (FT)
• Ex-Pakistan PM's son abducted as Taliban threaten poll (Reuters)
• China Dowry Filled With Gold Signals Gains for Jewelers (BBG)
• As discussed here over a year ago: China inflation data shows central bank policy dilemma (Reuters)

With another listless macro day in the offing, the main event was the previously mentioned Bank of Korea 25 bps rate cut, which coming at a time when everyone else in the world is easing was not too surprising, but was somewhat unexpected in light of persistent inflationary pressures. Either way, the gauntlet at Abenomics has been thrown and any temporary Japanese Yen-driven export gains will likely not persist as it is the quality of products perception (sorry 20th century Toshiba and Sony), that is the primary determinant of end demand, not transitory, FX-driven prices. And now that Korea is set on once again matching Japan in competitiveness, the final piece of the Abenomics unwind puzzle has finally clicked into place.  Elsewhere overnight, China reported consumer price inflation increasing by 2.4%, on expectations of a 2.3% rise, driven by a 4% jump in food costs: hardly the thing of Politburo dreams. Or perhaps the PBOC can just print more pigs, soy and birdflu-free chickens? On the other hand, PPI dropped 2.6% in April, on estimates of a 2.3% decline, as China telegraphs it has the capacity, if needed, to stimulate the economy. This is ironic considering its inflation pressures are externally-driven, and come from the Fed and the BOJ, and soon the BOE and ECB. And thus its economy stagnates while prices are driven higher by hot money flows. What to do?

Kenya, Australia, Poland and now South Korea. The country, whose net exports represent nearly 60% of GDP, and which have been deeply impacted by the recent collapse in the Yen, finally threw in the towel overnight and cut the benchmark seven-day repurchase rate from 2.75% to 2.50%, as only 6 of 20 economists predicted. The reason the move was surprising is that just like China, which overnight reported CPI of 2.4% on expectations of 2.3%, the country still has pent up inflation concerns, however it appears that preserving economic growth and its export potential is more important to the country bordered by North Korea, than price stability. The result of this largely unexpected move is a strengthening in the Yen overnight, if only by some 30 pips in the USDJPY.