Archive - May 2013 - Story

In the 'old normal' a spike in interest rates would have sparked an avalanche of 'rational' home-buyers and refinancers to apply for mortgages for 'fear' of the 'never-to-be-seen-again' rates disappearing. It seems, however, courtesy of a Bernanke-trained market, that this surge in rates has pushed many to the sidelines (mortgage applications slipped 8.8% WoW and -23% in the last 3 weeks), we presume waiting for the omnipotent-one to save the day yet again. The year-to-date shift in mortgage applications is now the worst since 2009 and the divergence between home sales and application for a mortgage is growing wider every week (reminding us of another euphoria and exuberance-driven unreality divergence).

Tesla has been outselling specific Mercedes, BMW and Audi models at similar price/quality points, and Consumer Reports has given the car glowing reviews. Is there a broader meaning in this, other than the introduction of a very well-designed luxury automobile? JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest's suggests that the Tesla’s price and its fossil fuel footprint suggest that it’s a distraction regarding the issue of transportation and related environmental efficiencies.

There is a simple mnemonic for the Keynesian world: credit creation = growth. More importantly, no credit creation = no growth. And that, in a nutshell is the entire problem with Europe.

These are not easy times for the global bond market. We’re looking at US Treasuries market (more below), and reckon this morning’s 10-yr spike to 2.23 is only the start. We could see more aggressive price declines as the curve steepens further. It’s only partly based on the better economic outlook and fears of the QE Taper. Japan banks will be among the biggest sellers due to the volatility and “death by carry”. Forget the stories Japan banks were buyers at the wides.. that’s wishful thinking from Treasury holders long and wrong on the US bond market. Unfortunately, each passing day sees the BoJ's credibility chipped away.

Moments ago, the following European Commission website hit the interwebs, which can be summarized as follows:

• EU EXTENDS DEFICIT DEADLINE FOR PORTUGAL TO 2015
• EU EXTENDS DEFICIT DEADLINE FOR NETHERLANDS TO 2014
• EU EXTENDS DEFICIT DEADLINE FOR SPAIN UNTIL 2016
• EU RECOMMENDS LIFTING EXCESSIVE-DEFICIT REGIME FOR ITALY
• EU SAYS 20 STATES CURRENTLY UNDER EXCESSIVE-DEFICIT PROCEDURES

Translation: the theatrical spectacle of Europe's austerity, which never really took place, is finally over. Going forward political incompetence will henceforth be known as just that: incompetence, and elected rulers will not be able to pass the buck to evil, evil, "austerity." More importantly, Europe has also proven without a doubt, that any "structural adjustments" on the continent are impossible, and that governments are locked in a spend till you drop mode.

How do you "extract" shareholder value when everyone and their grandmother knows you are one of the sole public proxies of an epic student loan bubble? You firewall its nearly $160 billion student loan portfolio (including Federal and Private) portfolio and associated origination and servicing exposure in its own public company and spin off the remainder as a separate "consumer banking" company. That is what Sallie Mae has just done.

• South China Sea tension mounts near Filipino shipwreck (Reuters)
• OECD cuts economic forecasts as eurozone drags on growth (FT)
• Switzerland frees banks to settle U.S. tax evasion cases (Reuters)
• U.S. Says Firm Laundered Billions (WSJ)... no, it's not HSBC, also: Free Corzine!
• Ardent conservative Bachmann to not seek re-election to Congress (Reuters)
• Russia faults U.S. over 'odious' Syria rights resolution (Reuters)

Moments ago, news broke that in a stunning M&A move, an American pork icon - Smithfield Foods, may be acquired as soon as today by China's Shuanghui, also known as Shineway, which is China's largest pork producer. The Chinese are coming, and they want America's pork. It unclear how soon after the deal gets clearance by the Committee on Foreign Investment (if it does at all) will the US be subject to that well-honored China excess pig "clearance" strategy: floating 'em down the river.

This morning market participants turn on their trading terminals to see an unfamiliar shade of green: red.

Following yesterday's blow out in US bond yields, which have continued to leak wider and are now at 2.20% after touching 2.23%,  the overnight Japanese trading session was relatively tame, with the 10Y JGB closing just modestly wider at 0.93%, following the market stabilization due to a substantial JPY1 trillion JOMO operation which also meant barely any change to the NKY225, while the USDJPY slipped in overnight trading below the 102 support line and was trading in the mid 101s as of this moment, pulling all risk classes lower with it. There was no immediate catalyst for the sharp slide around 3am Eastern, although there was the usual plethora of weak economic data.

The recent collapse of a small commuter bridge in Washington has brought back memories of Minnesota. Back in August of 2007, the I-35W Mississippi bridge connecting the Downtown East and Marcy-Holmes neighborhoods plummeted to the river below like a Chinese-made sofa. Thirteen individuals lost their lives while 145 escaped with injury. The suddenness of the debacle was met with the blunt response system of the state. That is, politicians in Minnesota and elsewhere went before the public to decry the deteriorating condition of government infrastructure across the country. A flurry of taxpayer money dedicated to overhauling the nation’s bridges followed. Five years after millions in tax dollars were fleeced, allocated, and distributed to this new urgency, less than two dozen of the state’s 172 “structurally deficient” bridges have been made whole.

The last week has seen quite dramatic drops in the prices of a little-discussed but oh-so-critical asset-class in the last housing bubble's 'pop'. Having just crossed above 'Lehman' levels, ABX (residential) and CMBX (commercial) credit indices have seen their biggest weekly drop in 20 months as both rates and credit concerns appear to be on the rise. Perhaps it is this price action that has spooked Fitch's structured products team, or simply the un-sustainability (as we discussed here, here and here most recently) that has the ratings agency on the defensive, noting that, "the recent home price gains recorded in several residential markets are outpacing improvements in fundamentals and could stall or possibly reverse." Simply put, "demand is artificially high... and supply is artificially low."

Canadian Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver said natural resources are the cornerstone of the federal and provincial economies. The U.S. economy, on the road to modest recovery, remains central to a Canadian oil market that relies heavily on exports. Oliver said at an investment conference in Quebec that the natural resources sector represents about 20 percent of the gross domestic product.  The Canadian economy has suffered, however, because there aren't many new conduits to get oil exports to foreign markets. The potential to reach Asian could provide a relief valve for the Canadian economy, while the option still exists to ship oil through the United States for exports. With opposition mounting along the borders, however, Canada's export-driven economy may become landlocked.

Because sometimes you just have to laugh...

The Japanese-bond-stuffed banks of the world (and the collateralizers-of-last-resort) are breathing a sigh of relief at the larger-than-average open-market-operation from the BoJ today (JOMO). From what looked like certain doom and a limit-down open, the JGB market rallied magnificently (along with stocks) out of the gate - almost as if someone 'knew' (which they did here) that the BoJ would come to the rescue today. Remember, as we noted earlier, that unlike the Fed, the BoJ does not have a set size and time schedule (for the full-month in advance aside from broad brush estimates) for its bond-monetization (though we suspect the BoJ will rapidly evolve to a smaller more frequent intervention); which likely accounts for the explosive rise in volatility that is being witnessed on a daily basis in the quadrillion JPY market. Japanese stocks, after an exuberant BTFD opening, have gone one-way - down - and are now testing towards negative on the day. USDJPY tested up over 102.50 in a vain attempt to spark the green equity open but that is fading now too - breaking 102.00. It looks like being another night of correlation trading for Japanese bond and stock investors as Kuroda unleashes a Trillion-JPY-JOMO...

While the world is vigorously searching for what Fed "Tapering" means, it seems the professionals in the financial markets are just as intrigued. With equity bulls yelling "buy" and bond bulls screaming "bye", it seems the story count within Bloomberg for the word "taper" is as close a proxy for bond market volatility as anything else we can find.