Archive - Jun 2013 - Story

Since we lost the deer yesterday as it was run over by bond sellers, it appears everyone else came to the realization that QE cannot be infinite, that EU event risk never went away, and that China does have a credit bubble and so it is time for the monkey. Where-ever we look today there is carnage. The superlatives are all extreme but are the biggest since Europe collapsed in October/November 2011 (preceding the coordinated global central bank bailout) - 1-day and 2-day drops in stocks the biggest in 19 months, Gold and Silver's second largest 1-day drop in 20 months, investment-grade and high-yield credit's worst 1-day and 2-day widening in 19 months, EM currencies (e.g. MXN) worst day in 19 months, Copper's worst day in 19 months, and the heaviest volume day in S&P futures in 20 months. While stocks closed at the lows of the day, Treasuries did see some buying come in the last hour or so - which appears to be safe-haven scrambling - and EUR weakness (post IMF) was trumped by JPY strength (unwinds) to drag the USD off its highs into the close.

Back by popular demand.

As a quick reminder, the old marketwide circuit-breaker system where a drop of over 2,400 points in the DJIA was needed to close the market after 2 pm no longer exists. Instead, the SEC revised its market-wide circuit breakers as follows...

But, but, but... the rally was all about earnings and fundamentals... not the Fed, right?

As we warned earlier in the week, Greece is notably missing its Troika goals and the issue just became a lot more critical. As The FT reports, the IMF is preparing to suspend aid payments to Greece over what it claims is a EUR 3-4 billion shortfall that has opened up. Between healthcare budget shortfalls, central banks refusing to roll-over Greek bonds, and amid signs that even the scaled-back privatization plans that Athens had agreed to being behind schedule, the IMF - following its own admissions of mistakes in the Greek bailout, has warned EU officials the shortfall will require it to stop aid payments by the end of July. The equity market is already reacting (as is EURJPY - EUR weakness against the big carry pair) to this re-awakening of EU event risk (and the awkward timing with Merkel's election so close) - with the Fed's comfort blanket somewhat removed.

In one month, the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage has jumped by over 60 basis points. What does this mean for net purchasing power? Well, as the chart below shows, assuming a $2000/month budget to be spent on amortizing a mortgage (or otherwise spent for rent), it means that suddenly instead of being able to afford a $425K house, the average consumer can buy a $395K house . This means that, all else equal, housing just sustained a 7% drop in the average equlibrium price based on what buyers can afford. But assuming the current selloff in rates continues, things are going to get much worse: we may be seeing 5%, 5.5% even 6% and higher mortgages in the immediate future. It also means that a buyer who could previously afford a $506K house with a $2,000 monthly budget at an interest rate of 2.5% will be able to afford only $316K if and when the average 30 Year fixed hits 6.5%: a 40% drop in affordability based on just a 4% increase in interest rates!

The FOMC lives in a fantasy world. The economy is not improving materially and deflationary pressures are rising as the bulk of the globe is in recession or worse.  The problem is that the current proposed policy is an exercise in wishful thinking.  While the Fed blamed fiscal policy out of Washington; the reality is that monetary policy does not work in reducing real unemployment.  However, what monetary policy does do is promote asset bubbles that are dangerous; particularly when they are concentrated in riskiest of assets from stocks to junk bonds. However, if you want to see the efficiency of the Federal Reserve in action it is important to view their own forecasts for accuracy. The reality is that Fed may have finally found the limits of their effectiveness as earnings growth slows, economic data weakens and real unemployment remains high. Reminiscent of the choices of Goldilocks - it is likely the Fed's estimates for economic growth in 2013 are too hot, employment is too cold and inflation estimates may be just about right. The real unspoken concern should be the continued threat of deflation and the next recession. One thing is for certain; the Fed faces an uphill battle from here.

With Bernanke seemingly getting his pink slip from Obama, the herd of academia is amassing for the prized job of winding down this catastrophe. From Yellen to Summers and from Geithner to Liesman, they all are equally qualified but as the following job description shows, it may not be as much fun as it seems.

Presenting the creeping take over of the world by "King Dollar" over the past year... or heatmaps for FX dummies.

Neither the ending nor its timing can be forecast with any accuracy. Markets may continue higher as this drama plays out with future Fed announcements and deceptions. Markets, however, cannot levitate forever. Eventually they coincide with reality, which in this case probably means another major market correction. Continuation and expansion of Fed liquidity may hold markets up or even drive them much higher. At some point the entire scheme crashes, probably when enough people recognize that the greater fool theory is in danger of exhausting the quantity of fools. All Ponzi schemes have limits. Participating in these markets is akin to playing a version of Russian roulette. If the chamber is empty, you make money. If not, you financially die.

Europe plays catch down to credit and the Bernanke/China double whammy. The broad Bloomberg Europe 500 equity index tumbled over 3% today - its worst day since November 2011 and fell below its 200DMA for the first time in 11 months. Europe's Dow (EuroStoxx 50) fell a stunning 3.7% - its worst since October 11 - smashing thorugh its 200DMA and notably red year-to-date. Sovereigns widened dramatically with Italy and Spain spreads +20bps or so. The EUR is having its worst 2-day run against the USD in 3 months. Europe's VIX closes at its highest in 4 months. Europe's high-yield credit market saw its worst day in 19 months and is back notably above its 200DMA. Not pretty overall.

A month ago, when stock markets around the globe were hitting all time highs, we wrote "The Bronze Swan Arrives: Is The End Of Copper Financing China's "Lehman Event"?" which as so often happens, many read, but few appreciated for what it truly was - the end of a major shadow leverage conduit (one involving unlimited rehypothecation at that),and the collapse of a core source of shadow liquidity. One month later, China's "Lehman event" is on the verge of appearing, and with Overnight repo rates hitting 25% last night, coupled with rumors of bank bailouts rampant, it very well already may have but don't expect the secretive Chinese politburo and PBOC to disclose it any time soon. So now that the market has finally once again caught up with reality, for the benefit of all those who missed it the first time, here is, once again, a look at the arrival of China's Bronze Swan.

If anyone thought Bill Gross would take what is likely the worst P&L day in PIMCO history without a fight, they would be wrong.

Gross: To paraphrase #Bernanke 2002: “Regarding the Great (Re)pression. You’re right Milton, we did it. Sorry. We won’t do it again.” ???

— PIMCO (@PIMCO) June 20, 2013

So did Bernanke just do it again?

Where's the buy-the-dip mentality? Yesterday's collapse triggered yet another Hindenburg Omen - the 7th in the last month) and it appears it is the equity market's turn for some pain as Treasuries (which initially weak) have stabilized 2-3bps higher in yield. The Dow has lost 15,000 and is down over 200 points today; the S&P 500 is testing back to its 1,600 level; but homebuilders are being battered (as clearly good is now officially bad). The S&P 500 is now the furthest below its 50DMA in 2013 - this is key as it has been critical support all the way up. Gold and Silver have been crushed (and copper and oil are following) this week so far and the USD is up 1.75% so far. Credit markets are being destroyed - investment grade spreads are 10bps wider to 90bps from FOMC.

Moments ago, Caterpillar released its May 2013 dealer statistics breaking down the 3-month rolling average for machine retail sales. Curiously, unlike in previous months when Asia/Pac was the worst performing region on a year-over-year basis, in May it was the US that showed the worst results. Just how bad: retail sales in the US clocked at a -16% clip, just barely above the -18% drop in April, and only the second lowest print in the past 3 years. And just to put the CAT dump in perspective, the chart below correlates CAT North American retail data with a 3 month delay in Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation: has CAT become the best leading proxy for corporate CapEx, and if so, just how much more negative does it have to get before the recession-watchers join the bond vigilantes in waking from hibernation?