Archive - Jul 11, 2013 - Story

The German President, Joachim Gauck, concluded in a recent interview, that the NSA was not to be compared with the Stasi, because, [paraphrasing] "it is not like it was with the Stasi, where there exist big filing cabinets in which all our conversations are written down." No, indeed, nothing like that. As OpenDataCity notes, at the NSA, conversation contents are neither written down nor filed - but digitally recorded, saved and can be searched and found within seconds. In contrast to the Stasi, the NSA can count on new technologies and can therefore collect information in gigantic quantities - in fact, according to their data, 1 billion times more data than the Stasi!

Chinese gold demand, from both individuals and central banks, garnered increasing attention as the gold price rose consistently in the last twelve years. When the gold price declined, many in the West declared the end of gold, but China (along with many other Asian nations) defiantly continued to buy gold and increase their imports. Questions over the legitimacy and transparency of COMEX and the London Gold markets are now becoming louder, especially as increasing numbers of institutions are keen to know what actually backs those contracts. ‘Paper gold’ is on everyone’s lips. As The Real Asset Company notes, Physical gold demand in the most populated country on earth does not seem to be subsiding, yet neither do COMEX and futures volumes generally.

No, last week’s jobs report was not “strong”. It was just another edition of the “born again” jobs scam that has been fueling the illusion of recovery during the entire post-crisis Bernanke Bubble. In short, the US economy is failing and the welfare state safety net is exploding. And that means that the true headwind in front of the allegedly “cheap” stock market is an insuperable fiscal crisis that will bring steadily higher taxes, lower spending and a gale-force of permanent anti-Keynesian austerity in the GDP accounts. And for that reason, the Fed’s strategy of printing money until the jobs market has returned to effective “full employment” is completely lunatic. The bottom-line is that Bernanke is printing money so that Uncle Sam can keep massively borrowing, and thereby fund a simulacrum of job growth in the HES Complex. Call it the Bed Pan Economy. When it finally crashes, Ben Bernanke will be more reviled than Herbert Hoover. And deservedly so.

Nothing says 'wealth' like a luxury Swiss watch (or two), and despite the equity markets of developed 'wealthy' nations resurgent in their inflated-asset-based selves, it seems the demand for luxury watches remains subdued at best. While Asia appears to be a big drag (as we noted here), Europe and the US are also plunging; but have no fear as African sales are up 25% (there's the real wealth effect?). The 'wealth effect' plan appeared to be working until the beginning of 2013 when, in spite of the almost unprecedented and inexorable rise in equities, Swiss watch exports collapsed to their worst levels since the great recession. Transitory blip? Doesn't seem that way as the most recent YoY change is the worst in six months.

With the revelation that the federal government, through the National Security Agency, has been collecting phone and Internet records of U.S. citizens in the name of preventing terrorism, Americans are wondering whether private communication exists. In the infograohic below, we explore how this surveillance works and the history of domestic spying programs (because, let’s face it, they’re not new) and how, even with broader knowledge of the government’s activities, a minority of Americans oppose such programs.

The family is one of the fundamental building blocks of society.  If you do not have strong families, you are not going to have a strong society.  Unfortunately, the state of the family in America continues to deteriorate...

While we are told that history doesn't repeat, it seems Baupost's Seth Klarman is oddly prophetic in his rhyming reality vision of the markets from over 20 years ago. This brief 'warning' from one of the most independent-thinking asset managers of our time (and least sheep-like) sum it up perfectly: "Caution has not been a profitable investment tactic for a long time now. I strongly believe it is about to make a comeback."

So much for the lessons of Fukushima. Never mind oil spills, the Russian Federation is preparing an energy initiative that, if it has problems, will inject nuclear material into the maritime environment.

Luckily nobody in the New Abnormal cares about actual cash flow.

With a national debt approaching $17 trillion, Uncle Sam is tightening his belt and looking under the cushions for extra change. But a closer look at his pocket book reveals just how little he knows about where your money is going. The following infographic provides a few examples that will make you think twice about Uncle Sam's accounting skills.

Over the past week there has been some speculation whether the number of Americans who receive food assistance and/or are on disability, outnumber full-time employed workers in the US. Here is the answer.

The last 12 days have seen the S&P 500 surge 7.5% - this is the fastest run since the co-ordinated global intervention that started Thanksgiving 2011. The overnight gap open never looked like being tested and volume remained average at best all day (until the 1400ET vert-ramp took us instantaneously above the previous all-time high close - running stops on the way - and pushing volume well 'below' average). Interestingly, the sectors did not enjoy the smash higher that the indices did and all pretty much trod water from open to close (with builders best all day). All indices are handsomely green from the 6/19 FOMC statement and only Materials and Builders are red (-1% from 6/19 FOMC). The same pattern was seen in gold, silver, copper, and bonds (overnight surge higher and then flatline for the day). The long-end of the TSY complex underperformed (-2bps vs 7Y -8.5bps) and as the stock indices exploded to highs, credit markets were not following along (and nor was VIX which dramatically diverged from stocks' exuberance).

Microsoft helped the NSA to circumvent its encryption to address concerns that the agency would be unable to intercept web chats on the new Outlook.com portal; The agency already had pre-encryption stage access to email on Outlook.com, including Hotmail; The company worked with the FBI this year to allow the NSA easier access via Prism to its cloud storage service SkyDrive, which now has more than 250 million users worldwide; Microsoft also worked with the FBI's Data Intercept Unit to "understand" potential issues with a feature in Outlook.com that allows users to create email aliases; Skype, which was bought by Microsoft in October 2011, worked with intelligence agencies last year to allow Prism to collect video of conversations as well as audio; Material collected through Prism is routinely shared with the FBI and CIA, with one NSA document describing the program as a "team sport".

Over the past few years we have attempted to show that most economic data are nonlinear and best studied by methods suitable for complex systems. Such systems are not easily analyzed using methods like linear regression or fourier analysis. In fact we would go so far as to say that such methods can lead you to the wrong conclusions. The world's situation is complex and changing. Change can drive unpredictable variations in market preferences--so while it would seem logical that people's preference for US dollars and gold might normally vary inversely, perhaps there are some circumstances when the market equally seeks both.

"Nothing in yesterday's remarks led us to question our view that tapering in September is coming, conditional on the data cooperating. To the contrary, when asked if he regretted mentioning slowing the pace of purchases recently, he stated that "notwithstanding some volatility that we've seen in the past six weeks, that speaking now and explaining what we're doing may have avoided, you know, a much more difficult situation in another time." Rather than push back against the way his comments were interpreted, the Chairman seemed to welcome the better alignment of the market's view with the Fed's view."