Archive - Jul 11, 2013 - Story

Update: we have isolated the reason for the ramp. The latest stop hunt in the Stalingrad & Poorski 471 is attributed to the Chinese finance minister Lou who said that China H1 growth will be slower than 7.7%. Remember: the faster the global economy goes to hell in a handbasket, the faster global equities hit infinity.

Whoever said perfectly broken and centrally-planned markets were boring.

In this space we would normally insert a chart of the S&P500 here but that would just be waste of NSA spy server space: just imagine a flat line and then a sudden vertical spike higher to new all time record highs on absolutely no news.

There was a time when one couldn't spend an hour without some moronic rumor of a Radioshack LBO popping up. Those time are gone. Instead, as DebtWire reports, the rumor of a takeover has been replaced with the all too unpleasant reality of a corporate restructuring which may or may not end up in Chapter and which likely means the equity is all but wiped out. As DW reports the firm is set to listen to restructuring pitches from the usual restructuring suspects, which means unless someone is crazy enough to do another JCP-type deal (they aren't), the firm's debt is about to be substantially discharged. This usually means a full or at least partial wipe out of the equity tranche below it. "The move to hire a banker to explore a balance sheet fix comes as the struggling electronics retailer faces a string of maturities, escalating cash burn and bloated inventory levels, the sources said. RadioShack first engaged AlixPartners for operational help over a year ago, as previously reported by Debtwire."

The public furore over the closure of state TV in Greece will likely be nothing compared to the glaring similarities of the new Greek state TV to the Russian broadcasting channel of Mikhail Gorbachev. It seems the Russian influence in Cyprus has leaked into its close neighbor as the following two images suggest.

Reminiscing on the good ol' days when traders and investors poured over fundamental metrics, CNBC's Rick Santelli looks upon the current environment as a single-factor "Bernanke-loves-me, he-loves-me-not" un-reality and the impact he has on savers. "It seems a little bit ridiculous," he understates before launching into two minutes of clarifying thought on just what it is that Bernanke is doing and that we are suffering through. Just who is Bernanke working for?

This week's final auction is over, in the form of a $13 billion 30 Year reopening, which like the previous 3 and 10 Years, was "good enough" but certainly nothing to write home about. The final yield of 3.660% stopped through the When Issued by 1 basis point so the market was mispricing the demand in the minutes leading up to the sale, however, the Bid to Cover of just 2.26 showed that not all was well under the sun - this was the lower BTC since August 2011, or the "debt ceiling" auction, and lower than both last month's 2.47 and the LTM average 2.57. The internals were in line with Indirects allotted 40.2%, Direct take down doubling from 8.5% to 16.3% and Dealers allocation dropping from 51.3% to 43.4%. Finally, following the past two auctions, the collateral squeeze in the bond market appears to have eased a bit on the short end with the 3 Year trading -0.02% down from -0.55% yesterday, although the 10 Year squeeze continuing still and trading special-er at -0.40% compared to -0.30% yesterday. How long until the Fed monetize all the Dealer allocated $5.6 billion in future POMOs? Keep an eye out on Cusip 912810RB6 in futures 30 year POMOs to see how much of this bond is promptly flipped back to the Fed.

We are confident the following amusing bill titled grandiosely enough "A 21st Century Glass-Steagall Act" (the Bill text here) by Elizabeth Warren, John McCain et al, to pretend Congress is not a bought and paid for by Wall Street marionette, will have a last minute rider that says "Compliance with any or all of the above provisions is purely voluntary."

"Our government tells us that this will be a better year. No one really believes them. But all we can do is be optimistic. Too many people are committing suicide."

It seems the early exuberance that Bernanke's utterings caused in world markets was faded non-stop in Europe. European bonds and stocks saw their best levels of the day at the open and never saw them again. Greece and Portugal underperformed their peers; Italian stocks actually closed lower on the day and while bonds did stage a comeback into the close, they all closed the day wider from yesterday. EURUSD was the big story - its biggest shift since January 2011 (with a 450 pip swing) - but as the day wore on the USD clambered back some strength (even as US equities ignored its retracement).

Let’s face it, the Las Vegas real estate market has gone full Chinese.  By full Chinese, we mean a centrally planned bubble has been created that is just asking to blow up.  We’ve covered the renewed insanity of the Las Vegas market before, but this article from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal provides even more detail.  In a nutshell, as a result of Assembly Bill 284, which essentially made foreclosures impossible in Nevada, extremely delinquent homes are not coming for sale, and this phony market signal is leading to rampant overbuilding and price speculation. Bubbles and bullshit.  It’s the American way.

This is the essential primer on the Fed that every high school and college student in America should read. If they study this short essay, they will grasp the essence of the Fed and understand why the financial Status Quo is doomed.

Another day, another 3-sigma swing in one of the biggest and most important FX carry-trades. AUDJPY is collapsing this morning as the smell of leveraged trades being tapped on the shoulder is all too fresh. Critically, carry trades are predicated on leveraging low returns in a low-volatility world; the shocks from a few weeks ago saw carry unwinds en masse - but all it took was a handful of Fed officials and Draghi/Carney's chatter and they are backing up the truck of the carry-express once again - that is until yesterday when the Minutes and Bernanke stepped up the currency wars once again. This kind of incredible volatility - unless everyone in the world is now a non-MtM trader - means fewer carry trades (or perhaps just a shift to another leveragable position).

There will be an increasing cry of 'not fair' from the Perry Capital's of the world as Jeb Hensarling unveils a dramatic plan to overhaul the GSEs (and broad housing finance in general).  The chairman of the House financial services committee wants Fannie and Freddie to be wound-down within 5 years - removing the explicit government guarantees and demanding that:

• *HENSARLING SAYS HE WANTS HOUSING POLICY FOCUSED ON TAXPAYER

and not:

• *HENSARLING: U.S. HOUSING FINANCE CAN'T BE DESIGNED FOR INDUSTRY

Higher down-payments for FHA loans, limited to first-time-homebuyers only, and reducing the conforming loan-limits are all likely to drive the hedge funds to more litigation and complaint that this will end the housing recovery and their dividend stream. Hensarling wants to create a securitization platform 'utility-like' entity with the government serving only as a catastrophic reinsurer.

A harbinger of what will happen to the Chairsatan perhaps? Or is this just a logical response of what the "other half" of the Fed, those who  demanded an end to QE by the end of 2013, think about Bernanke's latest public statement. If Dick Fisher quits next, watch out.

If the economy is so fragile that the government cannot allow failure, then we are indeed close to collapse.  For if you must rescue everything, then ultimately you will be able to rescue nothing.

          -  Seth Klarman, Baupost