Archive - Jul 12, 2013 - Story

One wonders: is bringing a full-sized fire extinguisher on your next Dreamliner trip allowed by the TSA, or is there a 100 mL size limit?

On the even of Bastille Weekend and the 100th anniversary of the Tour de France, you know it must be bad when the French-company-owned ratings agency Fitch is forced to remove its AAA rating from France. Key drivers include Debt-to-GDP projections rising and substantially weaker economic output and forecasts. Full statement below...

*SNCF CHAIRMAN SAYS TRAIN IN CRASH HAD ABOUT 370 PASSENGERS
*SNCF CHAIRMAN PEPY SAYS TRAIN CARS 3, 4, FIRST DERAILED

UPDATE: Boeing stock now down over 6% from pre-news, testing 50DMA

First it was imploding peripheral bond markets, now Europe is closing off the weak with even worse news, following reports of a burning Ethiopian Airlines 787 Dreamliner in Heathrow as well as news of a commuter train crash in Paris with numerous trapped and 8 dead according to Parisien. Boeing stock getting monkeyhammered on this latest ongoing fiasco, which for Boeing's sake better not involve the Lithium batteries...

In what has to be the most insane level of desperation, the Spanish banking system is lobbying to turn its deferred tax 'assets' into fungible capital to meet new stricter Basel III requirements. In other words, the Spanish banks believe that capitalizing historical losses provides a fungible 'stash' of capital against future losses... Following this morning's round of incredulity from the Spaniards, we have no words...

The "mutinying" half of the Fed - that which the FOMC minutes indicated wanted an end to QE by the end of 2013 - is not going to take Bernanke's Wednesday steamrolling lying down. Enter Charles Plosser, who becomes a voting member next year:

• PLOSSER SAYS FED SHOULD HALT QE BY END OF THIS YEAR

Good luck there. But here is the punchline:

• PLOSSER SAYS 'WE DONT WANT TO CREATE ANOTHER HOUSING BOOM'

Finally, someone from the Fed admits it was Greenspan's and Bernanke's ruinous cheap money policies that created the last housing bubble. As for preventing another housing "boom" or bubble as it is popularly known, we have two words: too late.

Following a handsome bounce driven by Draghi, Carney, and various Fed officials promising moar, peripheral European bonds and stocks are having a bad day (and week). Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Italy are all ending the week lower (after solid performance mid-week) with Germany's DAX seeing the benefits of a rotation from high-beta momo with a 5.1% rise on the week (the best week in 20 months!). Safe-haven flows dominated in bonds; Bunds rallied slightly more than Treasuries on the week but once again Peripheral nations collapsed. Spanish bond spreads jumped the most in a year. Italy was notably weak, but Portugal has seen spreads jump 28% in the last 2 weeks (the worst in over 3 years!). EURUSD had its best week in 5 weeks - and despite the peripheral collapse, Europe's VIX had its best (drop) week in 4 months ending at 19%.

Following closely on the heels of Barclays significant downgrade, JPMorgan has cut its forecast for second-quarter GDP by 50% to a mere 1% growth (from their previous 2% expectation). Citing downside surprises to inventories, they note that "Fed officials won't be thrilled about easing back on stimulus in September in the face of back-to-back one-handles on GDP growth." Have no fear tyhough, as the rest of the year prmises to hockey-stick right back up to 2.5% (and 2.7% in 2014).

Isn't it ironic that 30 years later, those who refuse to "remove themselves from the struggle between right and wrong, between good and evil" and those "who speak out against those who would place the United States in a position of military and moral inferiority" are forced to seek asylum in... the Evil Empire?

While exaggerating the size of things is nothing new to the human race, and as European politicians have proven - 'sometimes you have to lie'" - it appears the bubble in rappers' net worths has never been bigger. As Bloomberg Businessweek notes, fresh off of Jay-Z’s new album is the track Versus, on which he chides fellow hip-hop artists and their dubious tales of extraordinary wealth: “The truth in my verses, versus, your metaphors about what your net worth is.” Like Jay-Z, we’ve long been skeptical of just how wealthy some hip-hop stars claim to be, so we created a way to separate the truly rich from the loud-mouth lyricists.

While everyone is focused on whether Mr. Burns, aka Larry Summers  will take over for Ben Bernanke (he won't), lots of peripheral resignations are flying around. the most recent one: that of the U.S. secretary of the $60-billion budget and 240,000 employees Department of Homeland Security - Janet Napolitano, who will be named the next president of the University of California system. As the LA Times reports, "nothing was pushing her out of Washington now, although the Senate’s recently approved compromise plan on immigration faces an uncertain fate in the Republican-controlled House." The good news: we await for UCLA to be promptly upgraded to AAA and issue bonds inside of the US.

In an odd reversal of recent trends, the future expectations sub-index of the UMich consumer confidence survey fell (lowest in 3 months) as the current rose notably (to its highest in 6 years). Is hope fading? Perhaps it is the spike in gas prices? Or the spike in mortgage rates? Critically though, this is the first miss of expectations since December 2012 as inflation expectations also surged to the highs of the year.

Looks like the Russian guy who deleted his tweet earlier this week can undelete it:

• SNOWDEN ASKS RUSSIA FOR POLITICAL ASYLUM: RIA
• SNOWDEN SAYS HE WANTS TO STAY IN RUSSIA, INTERFAX SAYS
• PUTIN'S SPOKESMAN SAYS RUSSIAN POSITION ON SNOWDEN ASYLUM SAME
• SNOWDEN MEETING TO EXCLUDE VIDEO, PHOTO RECORDING DEVICES: RIA
• SNOWDEN TO COMPLY WITH PUTIN'S DEMAND NOT TO HARM U.S.: RIA

That terminal food sure must be something. Either that, or he is seriously entertaining Anna Chapman's marriage offer.

Do not worry, we are told on a daily basis, the rise in crude oil prices is transitory and won't affect gas prices and implicitly the US consumer's pocket book (already ravaged by spiking mortgage rates). Well, sorry to burst that little fantasy but gas prices in the last few days have surged (up 9c in 4 days). In fact today's jump is the largest in six months and pushes regular close to its all-time high for this time of year. Arguing not to worry as gas prices are more sensitive to Brent is a non-starter as it is very evident, despite the export of WTI, that gas prices are tracking the higher prices of crude oil and if history is any guide - with regard the lead-lag from crude to wholesale gasoline to retail, gas prices will be at new all-time highs for this time of year within the next month.

UPDATE: 5Y now +126bps (biggest jump in 19 months - snce the record highs) and rest of Europe is catching their systemic risk flu

Amid all the fun and games of the last few days that have seen everyone buy everything everywhere, we noted that the President of Portugal has 'warned' his politicians that if they don't find a coalition solution in a "very short period" then he will call early elections (throwing the Troika-imposed austerity program into shambles). It seems the 'time-bomb' was on a long fuse - thanks to Bernanke - and the reaction is very evident today as Portuguese bonds implode. Spreads are 76bps wider on the day, breaking above 600bps for the first time in 8 months. The 5Y yield on Portuguese debt is now at 7.5% (up 109bps today!) - and yet still they discuss the expectation of coming to market soon for new issuance. Europe remains very un-fixed and every now and again, when the domestic buyers are overwhelmed by some real liquidity, we get a glimpse.